Forecasting coral reef recovery with new data-driven dispersal models. This project aims to combine innovative mathematical methods and new genetic data to accurately predict the larval dispersal patterns of reef fish and corals. Larval dispersal is central to the ecology of coral reefs, and has vital implications for conservation. Most marine organisms spend their early life dispersing in the ocean, but our understanding of where these tiny larvae go is limited by sparse data and unvalidated mo ....Forecasting coral reef recovery with new data-driven dispersal models. This project aims to combine innovative mathematical methods and new genetic data to accurately predict the larval dispersal patterns of reef fish and corals. Larval dispersal is central to the ecology of coral reefs, and has vital implications for conservation. Most marine organisms spend their early life dispersing in the ocean, but our understanding of where these tiny larvae go is limited by sparse data and unvalidated models. Applied to extensive case-studies from Australia and across the western Pacific Ocean, these methods will be used to forecast and understand the recovery of fish and coral populations following severe disturbances. This will provide benefits such as enabling us to prioritise conservation actions in the aftermath of severe disturbances, including the catastrophic 2016 mass coral bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef.Read moreRead less
Improved methods for predicting species' distributions under environmental change. Understanding the impacts of climate change and invasive species on the distribution and persistence of species is an issue of global and national significance and concern. This project will provide tools essential for the effective management of Australia's ecosystems by delivering clear guidelines and practical methods that will substantially improve the modelling of future species distributions.
Exploring evolvability: its causes, consequences and practical applications in a changing environment. Are some species better able to adapt to a changing world? This question has been the focus of theoretical debate, but, as the scale of current environmental change becomes apparent, it has increasing practical importance, because it concerns the ability of biological communities to respond to climate change and the potential for agriculture to adapt a changing landscape. This project is the fi ....Exploring evolvability: its causes, consequences and practical applications in a changing environment. Are some species better able to adapt to a changing world? This question has been the focus of theoretical debate, but, as the scale of current environmental change becomes apparent, it has increasing practical importance, because it concerns the ability of biological communities to respond to climate change and the potential for agriculture to adapt a changing landscape. This project is the first of its kind, because it translates theoretical concepts into practical information needed for the development of salt-tolerant crops, new strategies for avoiding the growing problem of resistance in parasites, and new ways of detecting biological communities at risk of extinction and invasion. Read moreRead less
Pathways to agri-food supply chains that co-benefit people and nature. This project aims to improve biodiversity outcomes of agricultural food production and consumption, and expects to generate new knowledge about impacts of interventions and shocks on the environment, human health and livelihoods in agri-food systems. This will be achieved using an interdisciplinary approach that accounts for uncertainties in links between farmers, suppliers, consumers and supply-chain outcomes. The expected o ....Pathways to agri-food supply chains that co-benefit people and nature. This project aims to improve biodiversity outcomes of agricultural food production and consumption, and expects to generate new knowledge about impacts of interventions and shocks on the environment, human health and livelihoods in agri-food systems. This will be achieved using an interdisciplinary approach that accounts for uncertainties in links between farmers, suppliers, consumers and supply-chain outcomes. The expected outcome is a value of information framework for identifying nature-friendly policies and actions with co-benefits for human well-being. Benefits include sustainability pathways with win-win outcomes for people and nature, and improved ways of meeting international commitments such as Sustainable Development Goals.Read moreRead less
Systematic prioritisation of action for confronting invasive vertebrates in Australia. This project will use novel scientific approaches to effectively prioritise action for mitigating the threats invasive vertebrate pests pose to humans and to biodiversity in Australia. Results will inform policy and management, substantially advancing our understanding of the key factors shaping spatial invasion sources, hotspots, drivers and impact.
Impacts of global environmental change on biodiversity of tropical savannas. This project aims to predict the biodiversity consequences of a global trend of increasing woody cover in tropical savannas. Believed to be driven by a combination of elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration, climate change and management actions including fire suppression and cattle grazing. Expected outcomes are the integration of a range of modelling approaches to predict long-term impacts of environmental change on sa ....Impacts of global environmental change on biodiversity of tropical savannas. This project aims to predict the biodiversity consequences of a global trend of increasing woody cover in tropical savannas. Believed to be driven by a combination of elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration, climate change and management actions including fire suppression and cattle grazing. Expected outcomes are the integration of a range of modelling approaches to predict long-term impacts of environmental change on savanna biodiversity and the identification of land-use and management strategies to best mitigate these impacts. Likely benefits are an improved understanding of trade-offs between alternative land-uses in the savannas, including biodiversity conservation, fire management for carbon credits, and cattle grazing.Read moreRead less
Socio-ecological models for environmental decision making. The success of efforts to solve environmental problems will hinge, at least partly, on human responses. Yet environmental decision analysis tools typically do not include social processes, due to theoretical and methodological obstacles including strong disciplinary divides. For the first time, this project will combine computational social science and ecology to develop a new approach to environmental decision science. Using case-studie ....Socio-ecological models for environmental decision making. The success of efforts to solve environmental problems will hinge, at least partly, on human responses. Yet environmental decision analysis tools typically do not include social processes, due to theoretical and methodological obstacles including strong disciplinary divides. For the first time, this project will combine computational social science and ecology to develop a new approach to environmental decision science. Using case-studies in the design of biodiversity markets, this project will provide concrete examples of how socio-ecological models can support management decisions. The use of socio-ecological models will represent a paradigm shift in environmental decision theory that will lead to more effective environmental management.Read moreRead less
Improving predictions of species distribution dynamics. This project aims to mainstream methods for improved prediction of species distributions under the impacts of environmental change. This is important because these predictions are commonly used to guide environmental decisions, but the standard modelling methods used to produce them have critical limitations. This project intends to (i) make key statistical developments to methods for modelling dynamics of species distributions and (ii) tra ....Improving predictions of species distribution dynamics. This project aims to mainstream methods for improved prediction of species distributions under the impacts of environmental change. This is important because these predictions are commonly used to guide environmental decisions, but the standard modelling methods used to produce them have critical limitations. This project intends to (i) make key statistical developments to methods for modelling dynamics of species distributions and (ii) translate the methods into practice, through guidelines, tools and training, engagement with users and case studies addressing species of current concern. This should provide significant benefits because it will enable better decisions and more effective and cost-efficient management actions.Read moreRead less
Advancing resilience theory and practice for water resource management. Water resources in Australia and worldwide are under severe stress, for example from drought and water demand. This project aims to investigate how water and other natural resources can be managed to build resilience to such stresses. The project expects to develop advances in resilience theory that generate new model-based tools for resilient decision-making. These advances will be tested in a model of water resource manage ....Advancing resilience theory and practice for water resource management. Water resources in Australia and worldwide are under severe stress, for example from drought and water demand. This project aims to investigate how water and other natural resources can be managed to build resilience to such stresses. The project expects to develop advances in resilience theory that generate new model-based tools for resilient decision-making. These advances will be tested in a model of water resource management in north-central Victoria. Expected outcomes of the project include increased decision-maker capability to respond to threats to water and other natural resources. Such outcomes will help ensure the sustainability of increasingly highly stressed natural resources in Australia and worldwide.Read moreRead less
Can Tasmanian Devils survive by adapting to devil facial tumour disease? This research will examine whether or not Tasmanian Devils are capable of adapting fast enough to survive the disease epidemic caused by a new contagious cancer, devil facial tumour disease, and evade extinction. Outcomes will determine long-term management responses to the disease and will set a benchmark for managing wildlife diseases worldwide.