Forecasting live fuel moisture content, the on/off switch for forest fire. Dry forest fuels are a precursor of large bushfires. This research aims to develop, for the first time, a model to reliably forecast the moisture content of live fuels (e.g. the foliage and fine branches of shrubs and trees). This will be achieved by combining (i) satellite-derived estimates of live fuel moisture content, (ii) forecasts of soil moisture, and (iii) plant physiological responses to soil dryness. Forecasts o ....Forecasting live fuel moisture content, the on/off switch for forest fire. Dry forest fuels are a precursor of large bushfires. This research aims to develop, for the first time, a model to reliably forecast the moisture content of live fuels (e.g. the foliage and fine branches of shrubs and trees). This will be achieved by combining (i) satellite-derived estimates of live fuel moisture content, (ii) forecasts of soil moisture, and (iii) plant physiological responses to soil dryness. Forecasts of live fuel moisture content will deliver an early warning system of the risk of bushfires. These forecasts will also facilitate improved planning of prescribed burns: if fuels are too dry there is a risk of burns escaping, conversely, if fuels are too wet there is a risk that burns will fail to meet objectives.Read moreRead less
Understanding population growth time lags in invasive species. This project will use data collected from wild animals, landholder surveys, and computer simulation models to understand why invasive chital deer (Axis axis) are suddenly increasing in number after many years of slow population growth. By combining multiple empirical datasets and developing new modelling techniques, we will generate a new method for understanding population trends in introduced species. The results of this study will ....Understanding population growth time lags in invasive species. This project will use data collected from wild animals, landholder surveys, and computer simulation models to understand why invasive chital deer (Axis axis) are suddenly increasing in number after many years of slow population growth. By combining multiple empirical datasets and developing new modelling techniques, we will generate a new method for understanding population trends in introduced species. The results of this study will allow Queensland Department of Agriculture and Fisheries and others to better predict invasive species growth rates, which will allow for better, and more cost effective control methods. Read moreRead less
Ecosystem resilience of Shark Bay under changing ocean climate. This project aims to investigate the resilience of the Shark Bay World Heritage Site to projected climate change. This project will generate new knowledge for marine conservation through analyses of habitat loss on nutrient budgets and productivity in seagrass and microbialite ecosystems. Expected outcomes are an improved understanding of climate-driven shifts on ecosystem processes in Shark Bay, incorporating science-based evidence ....Ecosystem resilience of Shark Bay under changing ocean climate. This project aims to investigate the resilience of the Shark Bay World Heritage Site to projected climate change. This project will generate new knowledge for marine conservation through analyses of habitat loss on nutrient budgets and productivity in seagrass and microbialite ecosystems. Expected outcomes are an improved understanding of climate-driven shifts on ecosystem processes in Shark Bay, incorporating science-based evidence for better conservation and management. This will provide significant benefits by contributing to the future-proofing of Shark Bay’s World Heritage values to climate change, and more broadly by demonstrating the consequences of the continued tropicalisation of Australia’s coastline.Read moreRead less
Integrating climate adaptation into rainforest restoration plantings. This project aims to investigate the impact of within species adaptation to climate on restoratoin success in the Australian Wet Tropics. For a suite of six species of tropical tree frequently employed in rainforest restoration plantings in northeast Queensland, this project aims to test the hypothesis that collecting seed from populations in similar ecoclimatic settings to the planting site will result in superior seedling gr ....Integrating climate adaptation into rainforest restoration plantings. This project aims to investigate the impact of within species adaptation to climate on restoratoin success in the Australian Wet Tropics. For a suite of six species of tropical tree frequently employed in rainforest restoration plantings in northeast Queensland, this project aims to test the hypothesis that collecting seed from populations in similar ecoclimatic settings to the planting site will result in superior seedling growth and survival. The expected outcome is to provide practical advice to restoration practitioners about the importance of matching the provenance of seed source to planting sites, and opportunities for selecting provenances pre-adapted to predicted future climatic conditions at planting sites.Read moreRead less
Rehabilitating a changing landscape: using the latest advances in koala ecology to direct adaptive management. The koala has been identified as one of the world's flagship species suffering from environmental change. In contrast to the decline of koalas in New South Wales generally, the eucalypts planted in Gunnedah to combat salinity led to an increase in koalas. However, the startlingly high death rate of Gunnedah koalas (25 per cent of the population) in the heatwave during the drought in 200 ....Rehabilitating a changing landscape: using the latest advances in koala ecology to direct adaptive management. The koala has been identified as one of the world's flagship species suffering from environmental change. In contrast to the decline of koalas in New South Wales generally, the eucalypts planted in Gunnedah to combat salinity led to an increase in koalas. However, the startlingly high death rate of Gunnedah koalas (25 per cent of the population) in the heatwave during the drought in 2009 must be understood. There are also new threats brought about by intensive land modification. This project aims to determine the effects of environmental change on the koala population through a study of landscape ecology, leaf chemistry, disease epidemiology and koala movements. This aims to lead to better management decisions for arboreal fauna.Read moreRead less
Conserving and recovering the koala populations on NSW Far North Coast. Conserving and recovering the koala populations on NSW Far North Coast. This project aims to develop a novel, integrated socio-ecological approach for connecting landscapes and communities for the recovery of threatened koala populations on the New South Wales far north coast. This should increase understanding of how local landholders and land managers respond to koala recovery programs and why they respond positively and b ....Conserving and recovering the koala populations on NSW Far North Coast. Conserving and recovering the koala populations on NSW Far North Coast. This project aims to develop a novel, integrated socio-ecological approach for connecting landscapes and communities for the recovery of threatened koala populations on the New South Wales far north coast. This should increase understanding of how local landholders and land managers respond to koala recovery programs and why they respond positively and become engaged for the long-term. The intended outcome is a spatial prioritisation framework for species recovery that integrates social and ecological values, and increased global knowledge of how to recover declining wildlife populations.Read moreRead less
Innovative approaches to identifying regional responses of biodiversity to climate change. Australia is facing a biodiversity extinction crisis that is likely to be exacerbated by climate change. Existing models of climate at regional scales require significant advancement, not only to better understand impacts on biodiversity, but also to assist with decision making and adaptation strategies. The project will produce innovative and robust climate maps that are at a scale that is relevant for re ....Innovative approaches to identifying regional responses of biodiversity to climate change. Australia is facing a biodiversity extinction crisis that is likely to be exacerbated by climate change. Existing models of climate at regional scales require significant advancement, not only to better understand impacts on biodiversity, but also to assist with decision making and adaptation strategies. The project will produce innovative and robust climate maps that are at a scale that is relevant for regional management, enabling predictions of how management actions interact with climate change to affect climate and biodiversity. The project will innovatively identify climate refugia and quantify the effectiveness of existing processes of conservation decision making, whilst engaging the community in climate science and providing considerable scientific training.Read moreRead less
Modelling policy interventions to protect Australia's food security in the face of environmental sustainability challenges . This project will use an innovative scenario modelling approach to quantify the potential impacts of population growth and emerging climate and environmental challenges on Australia’s future food security. In collaboration with an advisory committee it will specify and prioritise policy solutions in terms of their social and economic credentials.
Living on the edge: how do Australian plants cope with extreme temperature? Of all the climatic factors determining species distributions, temperature is arguably the most important. It is extremes – rather than averages – that drive species evolution. So it is concerning that although extreme temperature events are increasing in frequency and intensity little is known about the breadth of thermal tolerance of plants from extreme environments. This information is crucial to understand species di ....Living on the edge: how do Australian plants cope with extreme temperature? Of all the climatic factors determining species distributions, temperature is arguably the most important. It is extremes – rather than averages – that drive species evolution. So it is concerning that although extreme temperature events are increasing in frequency and intensity little is known about the breadth of thermal tolerance of plants from extreme environments. This information is crucial to understand species distribution and survival under future climate regimes. This project will ascertain the thermal breadth of Australian species growing in situ and under controlled environments. The project will contribute to development of effective conservation, restoration and rehabilitation plans for Australian native plant communities. Read moreRead less
Identifying regions of high drought mortality risk for tree species in NSW. Trees define our landscapes and are crucial for ecosystem services including biodiversity, carbon sequestration and prevention of soil erosion. Drought is a major threat to tree survival across Australia and is being exacerbated by rising temperatures and changing rainfall patterns due to climate change. This project aims to calculate the risk of drought mortality for key tree species across New South Wales in current an ....Identifying regions of high drought mortality risk for tree species in NSW. Trees define our landscapes and are crucial for ecosystem services including biodiversity, carbon sequestration and prevention of soil erosion. Drought is a major threat to tree survival across Australia and is being exacerbated by rising temperatures and changing rainfall patterns due to climate change. This project aims to calculate the risk of drought mortality for key tree species across New South Wales in current and future climates. It aims to integrate four independent, complementary research streams to develop robust probabilistic risk profiles that account for variation in drought intensity and species resilience over landscapes. These risk profiles will be fundamental to conservation planning and land management across New South Wales.Read moreRead less