Economic consequences for Australia of global demographic change. In addition to addressing the economic implications of declining fertility and mortality in Australia this study will analyse major changes in demographic behaviour in regions on which Australia's economic health depends and the consequent changes in the flow of migrants into Australia. A new mathematical model of global population change will be integrated into the standard GTAP-dynamic model of global economic performance to pr ....Economic consequences for Australia of global demographic change. In addition to addressing the economic implications of declining fertility and mortality in Australia this study will analyse major changes in demographic behaviour in regions on which Australia's economic health depends and the consequent changes in the flow of migrants into Australia. A new mathematical model of global population change will be integrated into the standard GTAP-dynamic model of global economic performance to provide a useful tool for future analysis of Australia's population and economic policies. The analysis will contribute to policy development and the models will be widely available to policy institutions for their use.Read moreRead less
The Demand for Older Workers: Technology, Skill and Employment Opportunities. "Productive ageing" policies are central to Australia's strategies for the governance of population ageing. But little is known about the determinants of firms' demand for older workers. By uncovering the impact that technological change has on firms' hiring and training decisions, this study will critically complement our understanding of older workers' constrained employment opportunities. In so doing it seeks to inf ....The Demand for Older Workers: Technology, Skill and Employment Opportunities. "Productive ageing" policies are central to Australia's strategies for the governance of population ageing. But little is known about the determinants of firms' demand for older workers. By uncovering the impact that technological change has on firms' hiring and training decisions, this study will critically complement our understanding of older workers' constrained employment opportunities. In so doing it seeks to inform the long-term policy debate on how best to adjust our economy to the current major demographic and technological development. Its outcomes will be of interest and use to policy makers, industry, advocacy groups, unions and the wider community.
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Computing probabilities of theories where these probabilities vary over time with applications in macroeconomics. This project will present a method to produce empirically based policy advice that accounts for the changing economic environment and that allows for a range of assumptions about how the economy works. The research and training will place Australia at the forefront of empirical macroeconomic research and strengthen international research networks. Policy making will be improved as: i ....Computing probabilities of theories where these probabilities vary over time with applications in macroeconomics. This project will present a method to produce empirically based policy advice that accounts for the changing economic environment and that allows for a range of assumptions about how the economy works. The research and training will place Australia at the forefront of empirical macroeconomic research and strengthen international research networks. Policy making will be improved as: it will use information that is more robust to false assumptions; it will quickly incorporate new information; and we will understand better why certain policies did or did not work at different times in the past. The research will impact upon other sciences such as physics and engineering that use the same underlying tools far more than do economists.Read moreRead less
State-contingent analysis of productivity, efficiency and innovation. Productivity growth is a fundamental precondition for sustainable improvements in living standards. The main drivers of productivity growth are technological innovation and improvements in the efficiency of resource use. Effective public policy in this area requires identification of these components. This project develops improved productivity measurement methods that are applicable in economic environments characterised b ....State-contingent analysis of productivity, efficiency and innovation. Productivity growth is a fundamental precondition for sustainable improvements in living standards. The main drivers of productivity growth are technological innovation and improvements in the efficiency of resource use. Effective public policy in this area requires identification of these components. This project develops improved productivity measurement methods that are applicable in economic environments characterised by production and/or demand uncertainty. The methods will be used to obtain improved estimates of rates of innovation and changes in the relative efficiency of selected Australian enterprises. The empirical results will inform National Competition Policy and the process of microeconomic reform.Read moreRead less
New Approaches to the Analysis of Count Time Series. The focus of this proposal is on the analysis of data that enumerate events over time. Occurrences of such count data abound in economics and business, examples being observations on insurance claims, loan defaults and individual product demand. This project develops a suite of innovative methods for modelling and predicting event counts. The methods explicitly accommodate both the discreteness of the data and possible complexities in its evo ....New Approaches to the Analysis of Count Time Series. The focus of this proposal is on the analysis of data that enumerate events over time. Occurrences of such count data abound in economics and business, examples being observations on insurance claims, loan defaults and individual product demand. This project develops a suite of innovative methods for modelling and predicting event counts. The methods explicitly accommodate both the discreteness of the data and possible complexities in its evolution over time. In so doing, they enable both accurate inferences regarding the dynamic structure of the data to be drawn and accurate forecasts of future event counts to be produced.Read moreRead less
Population Ageing and National Housing Demand in Australia. This project seeks to determine the likely impact of population ageing on the demand for housing in Australia. A seminal study for the U.S. predicted that the relative demand for, and therefore price of, housing will fall substantially in the next two or three decades due to population ageing. If this were to occur in Australia, it could have a significant impact on personal wealth, the national saving rate, employment and economic welf ....Population Ageing and National Housing Demand in Australia. This project seeks to determine the likely impact of population ageing on the demand for housing in Australia. A seminal study for the U.S. predicted that the relative demand for, and therefore price of, housing will fall substantially in the next two or three decades due to population ageing. If this were to occur in Australia, it could have a significant impact on personal wealth, the national saving rate, employment and economic welfare. This question will be addressed by extending two different types of models - an analytical model of optimal national saving and an econometric model of housing demand.Read moreRead less
Increasing Globalisation and its Economic Implications. This project will focus on globalisation and its economic implications. We will: (a) propose definitions and measure of the ?degree of globalization", (b) examine its relationship with the degree of uncertainty facing an economy, (c) study the effects of globalisation and uncertainty on productivity growth, (d) examine the effects of uncertainty on the economy and (f) provide empirical applications for the Australian economy. Our project wi ....Increasing Globalisation and its Economic Implications. This project will focus on globalisation and its economic implications. We will: (a) propose definitions and measure of the ?degree of globalization", (b) examine its relationship with the degree of uncertainty facing an economy, (c) study the effects of globalisation and uncertainty on productivity growth, (d) examine the effects of uncertainty on the economy and (f) provide empirical applications for the Australian economy. Our project will provide an important, innovative and comprehensive examination of globalization and its economic effects. In addition to making novel theoretical and empirical contributions, it will also facilitate meaningful analyses of policy issues in Australia.Read moreRead less
Solving the water crisis in Australian cities and towns with options contracts between urban and rural water users. We will equip water resource managers with a powerful and effective tool for the allocation of water resources between rural and urban sectors. The importance of this bridge cannot be understated. To date urban centres have endured stringent water restrictions to manage dwindling urban suppliers, while ignoring the potential benefits of purchasing water from the irrigated agricul ....Solving the water crisis in Australian cities and towns with options contracts between urban and rural water users. We will equip water resource managers with a powerful and effective tool for the allocation of water resources between rural and urban sectors. The importance of this bridge cannot be understated. To date urban centres have endured stringent water restrictions to manage dwindling urban suppliers, while ignoring the potential benefits of purchasing water from the irrigated agriculture sector. Furthermore, rural communities have suffered hardship due to restricted agricultural production during times of drought. This research proposal represents an exciting solution to both problems and offers the tantalising prospect of water shortages in our capital cities and towns becoming distant memories.Read moreRead less
Economy-wide consequences of regulation and privatisation policy regimes. The spread of regulation across the majority of the economy necessitates that regulatory policy and approaches account for affects on GDP, employment, innovation and the growth rate. This project will offer policy institutions, including the ACCC, the Productivity Commission and the Treasury, an analysis of these effects and develop new computer models suited to future use to explore economy-wide implications. This need ....Economy-wide consequences of regulation and privatisation policy regimes. The spread of regulation across the majority of the economy necessitates that regulatory policy and approaches account for affects on GDP, employment, innovation and the growth rate. This project will offer policy institutions, including the ACCC, the Productivity Commission and the Treasury, an analysis of these effects and develop new computer models suited to future use to explore economy-wide implications. This need arises even in sectoral regulatory agencies, however, most particularly where service industries, such as telecommunications, are dominated by one or a few firms whose performance has major effects on the costs and innovativeness of firms in other sectors.Read moreRead less
Theoretically-motivated Long-term Internet Network Adoption Based on Short Time-series: Understanding the Diffusion of an Enabling Network Technology. A recent Government policy concerns innovation as a driver of long-term industry growth and a major determinant of global competitiveness. In particular, the Internet is a ?backbone? infrastructure for the conduct e-commerce, and enables efficiency benefits and product innovations to be realized in other sectors, e.g., banking, finance, health and ....Theoretically-motivated Long-term Internet Network Adoption Based on Short Time-series: Understanding the Diffusion of an Enabling Network Technology. A recent Government policy concerns innovation as a driver of long-term industry growth and a major determinant of global competitiveness. In particular, the Internet is a ?backbone? infrastructure for the conduct e-commerce, and enables efficiency benefits and product innovations to be realized in other sectors, e.g., banking, finance, health and tourism. This study estimates the network effect critical to forecasting Internet growth. Moreover, a structural model enhances understanding of underlying Internet dynamics and impacts on general economic conditions. Importantly, methods developed here apply to any network industry, and many non-network industries characterised by strong complementarity relations.Read moreRead less