Risk management with real-time financial and business conditions indicators. This project will develop new methods that combine financial and macroeconomic information that arrives at different intervals to better understand the implications of this information for risk management and policy decision-making. This will support better risk management strategies especially when economic conditions are very volatile.
Managing the risk of price spikes, dependences and contagion effects in australian electricity markets. Australian electricity markets are more volatile and spike-prone than other comparable markets. Price spikes account for large parts of total price variation, and companies that are unprepared to manage these risks adequately face potentially substantial losses. The economic reality of price spikes in our interconnected electricity markets which are small and geographically isolated, unlike th ....Managing the risk of price spikes, dependences and contagion effects in australian electricity markets. Australian electricity markets are more volatile and spike-prone than other comparable markets. Price spikes account for large parts of total price variation, and companies that are unprepared to manage these risks adequately face potentially substantial losses. The economic reality of price spikes in our interconnected electricity markets which are small and geographically isolated, unlike the proximate markets of Europe and North America, emphasises the imperative of this Australian-focused research. Results will enable forecasting of extreme prices and enable market participants to manage better their risks, in Australia's unique electricity environment, and reduce chances of large losses or default.Read moreRead less
Change Detection in Causal Relationships and Measurement of Systemic Risk. Empirical measures of interconnectedness between financial institutions based on tests of Granger causality are currently used in detecting systemic risk. However, researchers need to define periods of calm and stress exogenously in order to implement these tests appropriately. This project aims to develop a new procedure to identify changes in causal relationships and the timing of these changes. The new approach has the ....Change Detection in Causal Relationships and Measurement of Systemic Risk. Empirical measures of interconnectedness between financial institutions based on tests of Granger causality are currently used in detecting systemic risk. However, researchers need to define periods of calm and stress exogenously in order to implement these tests appropriately. This project aims to develop a new procedure to identify changes in causal relationships and the timing of these changes. The new approach has the potential to be a significant improvement in the real-time identification of emerging turmoil in financial markets and provide an improved method for the detection of systemic risk. The new test procedure will be implemented using data for financial and non-financial institutions across Europe, the US and Australia.Read moreRead less
Bayesian Inference for Flexible Parametric Multivariate Econometric Modelling. The anticipated outcomes include the development of enhanced multivariate econometric models and innovative computationally intensive methods for their estimation. These models are used in numerous and diverse applications which are data-intensive and where more complete models will greatly enhance data-based decision-making. Results include improved information use in the wholesale electricity markets, in financial m ....Bayesian Inference for Flexible Parametric Multivariate Econometric Modelling. The anticipated outcomes include the development of enhanced multivariate econometric models and innovative computationally intensive methods for their estimation. These models are used in numerous and diverse applications which are data-intensive and where more complete models will greatly enhance data-based decision-making. Results include improved information use in the wholesale electricity markets, in financial market investment decision-making and for the assessment of the impact of internet advertising.Read moreRead less
The Modelling and Assessment of Credit Default Risk. This project will deliver an enhanced set of methodologies for the quantification and management of credit default risk. These outcomes will benefit researchers both in academia and in Australian financial institutions as research into credit risk has been active in recent years, due to the impending adoption by financial institutions of the Basel II accord on risk assessment. The outcomes will provide a strong academic methodology applied to ....The Modelling and Assessment of Credit Default Risk. This project will deliver an enhanced set of methodologies for the quantification and management of credit default risk. These outcomes will benefit researchers both in academia and in Australian financial institutions as research into credit risk has been active in recent years, due to the impending adoption by financial institutions of the Basel II accord on risk assessment. The outcomes will provide a strong academic methodology applied to credit default risk by Australian financial institutions and the Australian financial regulator. This research has the potential to enhance the competitivemess of Australia's financial sector.Read moreRead less
Endgame: managing superannuation in later life. This project aims to come up with strategies for improving superannuation advice for the elderly - including retirees, and also those on the cusp of retirement, who often have little or no scope for working harder or longer to restore their finances. It applies recent developments in financial economics to improve the quality of financial planning advice.
Diversification failures and improved measures of uncertainty. The project aims to develop new statistical tools, applicable when the conventional paradigm that diversification reduces risk fails and when textbook approaches to risk quantification severely under-report risk. The new tools enhance our capacity to build and manage natural, social and human-made systems in uncertain environments. Our effective response to many threats including financial crises and natural events, depends on this c ....Diversification failures and improved measures of uncertainty. The project aims to develop new statistical tools, applicable when the conventional paradigm that diversification reduces risk fails and when textbook approaches to risk quantification severely under-report risk. The new tools enhance our capacity to build and manage natural, social and human-made systems in uncertain environments. Our effective response to many threats including financial crises and natural events, depends on this capacity. Thus, the expected benefits in the form of more reliable and robust risk analytics will accrue when they are most needed.Read moreRead less
The modelling and estimation of volatility in energy markets. The growing trend of deregulation of energy markets poses important problems for users and suppliers of energy as well as for government policy makers. In particular it has become necessary to manage the risk of unexpected load and price fluctuations. One of the main challenges concerns the extreme volatility of prices and the evaluation of derivative prices and hedging ratios to take account of volatility. The outcomes of project wil ....The modelling and estimation of volatility in energy markets. The growing trend of deregulation of energy markets poses important problems for users and suppliers of energy as well as for government policy makers. In particular it has become necessary to manage the risk of unexpected load and price fluctuations. One of the main challenges concerns the extreme volatility of prices and the evaluation of derivative prices and hedging ratios to take account of volatility. The outcomes of project will be of benefit to all participants in Australian energy markets who need to use derivative positions to hedge energy risk. This issue has become important due to the increasing national focus on efficient use of energy resources.Read moreRead less
The predictive, behavioural and economic forecasting performance of alternative credit risk and bankruptcy models: a global study. This study empirically evaluates a range of "new age" credit risk models using a large global sample of failed firms and bond ratings data. The study will provide a substantive body of empirical evidence to assist regulators, creditors, investors and other users assess the merits, strengths and limitations of alternative risk modelling approaches.
Chief executive officer pay, incentives, talent and risk-taking: Excessive pay, regulation and the global financial crisis. The Prime Minister has requested the regulators, APRA and Treasury, to come up with rules that would prevent a repeat of the trillion dollar bailouts and guarantees to the financial sector and banks at risk of failure. Excessive pay and risk-taking by bank executives shoulder made the blame for the global crisis that has already cost Australian investors and taxpayers a siz ....Chief executive officer pay, incentives, talent and risk-taking: Excessive pay, regulation and the global financial crisis. The Prime Minister has requested the regulators, APRA and Treasury, to come up with rules that would prevent a repeat of the trillion dollar bailouts and guarantees to the financial sector and banks at risk of failure. Excessive pay and risk-taking by bank executives shoulder made the blame for the global crisis that has already cost Australian investors and taxpayers a sizeable portion of the nation's wealth. The project will greatly assist the regulators in this task. It will also identify compensation practices that reward good long-term performance without excessive pay. This could dramatically raise the performance of Australian companies and ameliorate the problem of dissatisfied investors and taxpayers.Read moreRead less