Where will species go? Revolutionising projections of species distributions with climate change. Improving our capacity to predict climate change impacts on biodiversity is a National Research Priority and a priority under the National Biodiversity and Climate Change Action Plan (2004-2007). Our research will revolutionise the field of bioclimatic modelling by enabling the probability of losses/gains in species distributions to be calculated. This will enable policy makers to identify vulnerable ....Where will species go? Revolutionising projections of species distributions with climate change. Improving our capacity to predict climate change impacts on biodiversity is a National Research Priority and a priority under the National Biodiversity and Climate Change Action Plan (2004-2007). Our research will revolutionise the field of bioclimatic modelling by enabling the probability of losses/gains in species distributions to be calculated. This will enable policy makers to identify vulnerable species and provides a strong framework for prioritizing areas for research and monitoring. Our research will interface two disciplines, earth and biological sciences, and establish a new international collaboration that will ensure Australia is at the forefront of a rapidly developing research field. Read moreRead less
Adapting to climate change: does enhanced metabolism provide heritable protection against ocean acidification and increasing temperature in oysters? By the end of this century, our oceans will have much higher concentrations of carbon dioxide and will be several degrees warmer. We have developed a population of oysters that can survive in these conditions, and the project will examine these oysters at the molecular level to determine whether increased metabolism is responsible for their survival ....Adapting to climate change: does enhanced metabolism provide heritable protection against ocean acidification and increasing temperature in oysters? By the end of this century, our oceans will have much higher concentrations of carbon dioxide and will be several degrees warmer. We have developed a population of oysters that can survive in these conditions, and the project will examine these oysters at the molecular level to determine whether increased metabolism is responsible for their survival.Read moreRead less
Development and calcification in benthic marine invertebrates (Mollusca and Echinodermata) in an acidified and warm ocean. As an island continent Australia generates considerable wealth from its oceans with marine invertebrate resources playing a key role. These resources are at risk due to the impact of climate change, ocean acidification and warming, on availability of carbonate minerals for shell production. Of major concern is potential recruitment failure if planktonic larvae cannot produc ....Development and calcification in benthic marine invertebrates (Mollusca and Echinodermata) in an acidified and warm ocean. As an island continent Australia generates considerable wealth from its oceans with marine invertebrate resources playing a key role. These resources are at risk due to the impact of climate change, ocean acidification and warming, on availability of carbonate minerals for shell production. Of major concern is potential recruitment failure if planktonic larvae cannot produce their skeleton and if benthic stages cannot grow due to impaired skeleton formation. This project addresses uncertainties in knowledge of the response of ecologically and commercially important marine biota to climate change, knowledge crucial to inform risk assessment of future changes to our marine resources.Read moreRead less
Brown is the new green: grassland responses to drought and heat. This project aims to improve accuracy and precision in predicting the impact of water availability and heat stress on grassland function. Grassland ecosystems are important reservoirs of global biodiversity and carbon storage. Grasslands are highly sensitive to drought and heat stress, but studies recently showed that current grassland models cannot predict these responses because they do not adequately represent the key processes ....Brown is the new green: grassland responses to drought and heat. This project aims to improve accuracy and precision in predicting the impact of water availability and heat stress on grassland function. Grassland ecosystems are important reservoirs of global biodiversity and carbon storage. Grasslands are highly sensitive to drought and heat stress, but studies recently showed that current grassland models cannot predict these responses because they do not adequately represent the key processes of physiological drought tolerance, leaf browning, and species traits. This project will collect targeted data sets in order to develop and test model representations of these key processes. This will provide significant benefits, such as greatly increasing capacity to predict the impact of drought and heat stress on grasslands, at scales ranging from field to globe.Read moreRead less
Elevated carbon dioxide (CO2) effects on vegetation: repairing the disconnect between experiments and models. Ecosystem models are important tools used in a variety of applications, including predicting how vegetation uptake of carbon affects global climate, estimating carbon sequestration by natural and planted forests and determining water yield of catchments. Although there has been a massive investment in experiments to determine plant response to elevated carbon dioxide [CO2], ecosystem mod ....Elevated carbon dioxide (CO2) effects on vegetation: repairing the disconnect between experiments and models. Ecosystem models are important tools used in a variety of applications, including predicting how vegetation uptake of carbon affects global climate, estimating carbon sequestration by natural and planted forests and determining water yield of catchments. Although there has been a massive investment in experiments to determine plant response to elevated carbon dioxide [CO2], ecosystem models do not incorporate this body of data as well as they could. This project will use innovative methods to bridge the gap between experimental data and ecosystem models, resulting in significantly improved information for managers of Australia's natural resources into the future.Read moreRead less
Ecological consequences of hydrodynamic disturbances. The Great Barrier Reef is synonymous with Australia to many people worldwide. Consequently, it is of paramount importance to our national tourism industry. As stewards of this unique ecosystem, we are responsible for ensuring its persistence under not only present, but also future climate scenarios. To do so requires the tools for predicting the ecological impacts of physical disturbance that this project will develop. Because of its global s ....Ecological consequences of hydrodynamic disturbances. The Great Barrier Reef is synonymous with Australia to many people worldwide. Consequently, it is of paramount importance to our national tourism industry. As stewards of this unique ecosystem, we are responsible for ensuring its persistence under not only present, but also future climate scenarios. To do so requires the tools for predicting the ecological impacts of physical disturbance that this project will develop. Because of its global significance, this work will continue to generate high-impact publications that will increase the international research profile of Australia. Finally, this project will generate collaborations with top researchers worldwide and will provide high quality training to postgraduate students.
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Explaining forest responses to rising carbon-dioxide concentrations at stand scale using a new, simple model of plant carbon economy. Australia is undergoing large changes in [CO2] and rainfall patterns, with 20% decreases in annual rainfall across southern Australia over the past 30 years, and large increases in north-western Australia. The impacts of rising [CO2] and altered rainfall must be factored into Australia's environmental and water-catchment management strategies. The outcome of this ....Explaining forest responses to rising carbon-dioxide concentrations at stand scale using a new, simple model of plant carbon economy. Australia is undergoing large changes in [CO2] and rainfall patterns, with 20% decreases in annual rainfall across southern Australia over the past 30 years, and large increases in north-western Australia. The impacts of rising [CO2] and altered rainfall must be factored into Australia's environmental and water-catchment management strategies. The outcome of this project will be a new simplified forest model that has been validated for Australia's leading climate-change experiment on forests, the Hawkesbury Forest Experiment, which includes both CO2 and watering treatments. The model will be readily transferable to new sites and at regional scale, so it can be applied as a tool for future management of Australia's forests.Read moreRead less
How will Eucalypt tree architecture and growth adapt to future atmospheric CO2 and drought? This work is fundamental to understanding how growth and water use by Australia's forests will be modified in the future by global change. The changes in tree leaf area and canopy structure that we seek to understand will determine forest responses to increasing atmospheric CO2 and drought. It is essential to study these changes on Australian species, because they differ from forest species elsewhere in h ....How will Eucalypt tree architecture and growth adapt to future atmospheric CO2 and drought? This work is fundamental to understanding how growth and water use by Australia's forests will be modified in the future by global change. The changes in tree leaf area and canopy structure that we seek to understand will determine forest responses to increasing atmospheric CO2 and drought. It is essential to study these changes on Australian species, because they differ from forest species elsewhere in having been largely shaped by water availability. This fundamental work will flow into predictions of future forest growth and water use in Australia, with consequences for land and water resource management as well as forestry.Read moreRead less
Predicting the effect of climate change on community structure and function: an assessment using temperate grassland invertebrates. This research will set the future agenda for assessing community responses to climate change worldwide. Our findings will be a robust template for future research to incorporate sophisticated multi-species assessments across all taxa and biomes. Results and conclusions from this research will aid graziers, agronomists, government agencies and conservation groups wor ....Predicting the effect of climate change on community structure and function: an assessment using temperate grassland invertebrates. This research will set the future agenda for assessing community responses to climate change worldwide. Our findings will be a robust template for future research to incorporate sophisticated multi-species assessments across all taxa and biomes. Results and conclusions from this research will aid graziers, agronomists, government agencies and conservation groups working in urban, rural and regional landscapes to prepare for changes in species relationships over the coming century. The team of early career researchers will also prepare the next generation of scientists for cutting edge ecological and statistical research within a dynamic and multidisciplinary context.Read moreRead less
Future Keepers: impacts of climate change on ecosystem function providers. The aim of this project is to predict how key ecosystem service providers may change under resource limitation and thermal stress. The project seeks to assess how common species respond to climatic fluctuations and resource limitations when competing for resources in familiar and novel environments along six biogeographic transects throughout Australia. In combination with hypothesis-driven field, laboratory and transplan ....Future Keepers: impacts of climate change on ecosystem function providers. The aim of this project is to predict how key ecosystem service providers may change under resource limitation and thermal stress. The project seeks to assess how common species respond to climatic fluctuations and resource limitations when competing for resources in familiar and novel environments along six biogeographic transects throughout Australia. In combination with hypothesis-driven field, laboratory and transplant experiments, citizen science will be used to create a longitudinal data set of the constraints put on dominant and functionally important species. The project also seeks to enable more robust forecasting of biological responses to environmental change by integrating both empirical and theoretical capabilities.Read moreRead less