Physics-aware machine learning for data-driven fire risk prediction. The 2019/20 Australian fire season was unprecedented in its extent, impact, and the response of fire agencies. In this project, we aim to answer the question: was the scale of these fires driven by known drivers of fire (drought, weather, fuels and ignitions), or were fundamentally new undescribed processes and phenomena involved? We will accomplish this by developing an innovative, physics-aware machine learning model of fire ....Physics-aware machine learning for data-driven fire risk prediction. The 2019/20 Australian fire season was unprecedented in its extent, impact, and the response of fire agencies. In this project, we aim to answer the question: was the scale of these fires driven by known drivers of fire (drought, weather, fuels and ignitions), or were fundamentally new undescribed processes and phenomena involved? We will accomplish this by developing an innovative, physics-aware machine learning model of fire risk and spread, trained and validated on a two-decade satellite fire record. The predictive ability of the model will be tested on the 2019/20 fire season to determine if novel drivers of fire can be identified, and the model itself will be operationalised into a novel short-to-mid term fire risk prediction tool. Read moreRead less
An Australian storm wave damage and beach erosion early warning system. This project aims to develop a new coastal hazard early-warning system capability for Australia, to alert coastal communities, emergency managers and coastal engineers to impending storm wave damage and coastal erosion. Emergency preparedness informed by early warning is expected to significantly benefit vulnerable communities and infrastructure along Australia’s coasts.
Australia's variable rainfall - how dry or wet can it really get? Australia’s rainfall is extremely variable, which means existing weather records are too short to calculate the true risk posed by droughts and floods. This project aims to quantify how naturally variable the rainfall coming from the Indo-Pacific mid-latitudes is, allowing recent rainfall extremes and future projections to be assessed in a long-term context. This project expects to produce new estimates of atmospheric moisture bud ....Australia's variable rainfall - how dry or wet can it really get? Australia’s rainfall is extremely variable, which means existing weather records are too short to calculate the true risk posed by droughts and floods. This project aims to quantify how naturally variable the rainfall coming from the Indo-Pacific mid-latitudes is, allowing recent rainfall extremes and future projections to be assessed in a long-term context. This project expects to produce new estimates of atmospheric moisture budgets between Australia and Antarctica based on a novel, 1000-year length reconstruction of moisture-bearing southern Indian Ocean storms. This new information is critically needed by water managers so that they can properly calculate (and ultimately prepare for) the worst of Australia’s rainfall-related risks.Read moreRead less
New insights into abrupt climate change using isotope model-data fusion. There have been several episodes in the past 60,000 years during which carbon dioxide was released into the atmosphere causing significant and rapid warming. This project aims to determine the source of the carbon responsible for these warming events. This project is significant because it will increase our understanding of the processes underlying abrupt past, and potential future changes. These processes are currently und ....New insights into abrupt climate change using isotope model-data fusion. There have been several episodes in the past 60,000 years during which carbon dioxide was released into the atmosphere causing significant and rapid warming. This project aims to determine the source of the carbon responsible for these warming events. This project is significant because it will increase our understanding of the processes underlying abrupt past, and potential future changes. These processes are currently underestimated or missing in climate models. The expected outcomes include a better understanding of the non-linear responses in the climate system. This should provide significant benefits, such as an assessment of whether the smooth climate changes currently projected through to year 2100 are misleading.Read moreRead less
Investigating the controls on the extent of tidewater glaciers. This project aims to improve our ability to model tidewater glaciers. The project will conduct studies of two iconic glacial systems in Alaska: Glacier Bay and Columbia Glacier. These glaciers have recently experienced rapid retreat and contributed to sea level rise. In particular, the Grand Pacific Glacier has retreated 100 kilometres up Glacier Bay, the greatest recorded glacier retreat in the last 200 years. The project will use ....Investigating the controls on the extent of tidewater glaciers. This project aims to improve our ability to model tidewater glaciers. The project will conduct studies of two iconic glacial systems in Alaska: Glacier Bay and Columbia Glacier. These glaciers have recently experienced rapid retreat and contributed to sea level rise. In particular, the Grand Pacific Glacier has retreated 100 kilometres up Glacier Bay, the greatest recorded glacier retreat in the last 200 years. The project will use geomorphic mapping, dating and climate reanalysis to better understand the long term behaviour of these glaciers and the drivers of recent retreat. An expected outcome from the project is a better understanding of the long term behaviour of tidewater glaciers and an improvement in our ability to predict sea level rise from them.Read moreRead less
Past to future changes in ocean dynamics and biogeochemistry. This project aims to understand the impact of changes in ocean circulation on marine biogeochemistry, climate and ultimately the Antarctic ice-sheet by combining transient simulations of the last glacial cycle performed with an Earth system model incorporating the compilation of paleoproxy records. The oceanic circulation has varied over the last glacial cycle (~140,000 years) and is expected to change over the coming centuries due t ....Past to future changes in ocean dynamics and biogeochemistry. This project aims to understand the impact of changes in ocean circulation on marine biogeochemistry, climate and ultimately the Antarctic ice-sheet by combining transient simulations of the last glacial cycle performed with an Earth system model incorporating the compilation of paleoproxy records. The oceanic circulation has varied over the last glacial cycle (~140,000 years) and is expected to change over the coming centuries due to rising atmospheric carbon dioxide. The project will measure future changes in oceanic circulation on ocean acidification and oxygen content with a state-of-the-art high-resolution ocean carbon cycle model. This will lead to improved understanding of processes and feedbacks within the Earth system.Read moreRead less
Physical and geochemical coupling in a subterranean estuary. This project aims to determine and quantify key mechanisms governing chemical transport and transformation in a tidally dominated subterranean estuary. The project will be the first attempt worldwide to measure simultaneously the temporal and spatial variability of coupled physical and geochemical processes in the intertidal zone of a subterranean estuary. The project will generate much-needed understanding of the role of subterranean ....Physical and geochemical coupling in a subterranean estuary. This project aims to determine and quantify key mechanisms governing chemical transport and transformation in a tidally dominated subterranean estuary. The project will be the first attempt worldwide to measure simultaneously the temporal and spatial variability of coupled physical and geochemical processes in the intertidal zone of a subterranean estuary. The project will generate much-needed understanding of the role of subterranean estuaries in controlling fluxes of land-derived chemicals to the ocean via submarine groundwater discharge. The outcomes will have important implications for assessing and minimising the impact of groundwater contamination on the coastal zone. It will provide better understanding of the pathway of land-derived nutrients and contaminants entering coastal waters, leading to improvement of strategies for sustainable coastal resources management and development, and integration of upland and lowland catchments management.Read moreRead less
Long range toxic metal pollution in Australia and the Southern Ocean. This project aims to investigate how environmental change and human activities since industrialisation have impacted toxic metal transport and deposition on the south coast of Australia, Tasmania and Southern Ocean islands. This project expects to fill gaps in understanding of the global mercury cycle using a state-of-the-art multidisciplinary methodology including the role of sea salt aerosols and hemispheric-scale wind patte ....Long range toxic metal pollution in Australia and the Southern Ocean. This project aims to investigate how environmental change and human activities since industrialisation have impacted toxic metal transport and deposition on the south coast of Australia, Tasmania and Southern Ocean islands. This project expects to fill gaps in understanding of the global mercury cycle using a state-of-the-art multidisciplinary methodology including the role of sea salt aerosols and hemispheric-scale wind patterns . Anticipated outcomes involve a novel palaeo-atmospheric model that can be applied in other parts of the world. This should provide significant benefits, such as science-based evidence to ratify the Minamata Convention on Mercury and guide new regulations to reduce environmental/health risks from metal pollution.
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Global climate change and coastal landscape evolution in southern Australia. This project aims to reconstruct environmental changes that occurred in southern Australia during a geologically recent time interval termed the Early-Middle Pleistocene Transition (1.2 million to 700 thousand years ago) and an interglacial period some 400,000 years ago. Using innovative geochronological, geochemical and modelling techniques, the environmental changes that shaped modern Australian coastal landscapes, in ....Global climate change and coastal landscape evolution in southern Australia. This project aims to reconstruct environmental changes that occurred in southern Australia during a geologically recent time interval termed the Early-Middle Pleistocene Transition (1.2 million to 700 thousand years ago) and an interglacial period some 400,000 years ago. Using innovative geochronological, geochemical and modelling techniques, the environmental changes that shaped modern Australian coastal landscapes, including the intensification of aridity and their timing will be examined. The project will yield new knowledge about the sensitivity of landscapes to current and ongoing environmental changes and derive explanatory models of the rates and characteristics of landscape response to assist future coastal environmental management.Read moreRead less
Exploring past climates, volcanic disasters and earthquakes in Australasia. This project aims to combine cutting-edge geochemical microanalysis of precisely dated cave deposits and corals to generate fundamental knowledge of Australasian earth hazards and environmental turning points over the past 500,000 years. These novel long-term perspectives of society’s most challenging environmental threats will provide the scientific basis required for informed decision-making and sustainable development ....Exploring past climates, volcanic disasters and earthquakes in Australasia. This project aims to combine cutting-edge geochemical microanalysis of precisely dated cave deposits and corals to generate fundamental knowledge of Australasian earth hazards and environmental turning points over the past 500,000 years. These novel long-term perspectives of society’s most challenging environmental threats will provide the scientific basis required for informed decision-making and sustainable development in Australasia.Read moreRead less