Physics-aware machine learning for data-driven fire risk prediction. The 2019/20 Australian fire season was unprecedented in its extent, impact, and the response of fire agencies. In this project, we aim to answer the question: was the scale of these fires driven by known drivers of fire (drought, weather, fuels and ignitions), or were fundamentally new undescribed processes and phenomena involved? We will accomplish this by developing an innovative, physics-aware machine learning model of fire ....Physics-aware machine learning for data-driven fire risk prediction. The 2019/20 Australian fire season was unprecedented in its extent, impact, and the response of fire agencies. In this project, we aim to answer the question: was the scale of these fires driven by known drivers of fire (drought, weather, fuels and ignitions), or were fundamentally new undescribed processes and phenomena involved? We will accomplish this by developing an innovative, physics-aware machine learning model of fire risk and spread, trained and validated on a two-decade satellite fire record. The predictive ability of the model will be tested on the 2019/20 fire season to determine if novel drivers of fire can be identified, and the model itself will be operationalised into a novel short-to-mid term fire risk prediction tool. Read moreRead less
Sustaining intensive agriculture through droughts and floods. This project aims to develop state-of-the-art conceptual and numerical models of river-soil-groundwater interactions to address complex and persistent questions on water sustainability in the Lower Burdekin Delta, Queensland, where groundwater pumping to irrigate sugarcane has been supplemented by artificial recharge for over 50 years. This project expects to deliver new knowledge of critical aquifer processes to inform the scheme ope ....Sustaining intensive agriculture through droughts and floods. This project aims to develop state-of-the-art conceptual and numerical models of river-soil-groundwater interactions to address complex and persistent questions on water sustainability in the Lower Burdekin Delta, Queensland, where groundwater pumping to irrigate sugarcane has been supplemented by artificial recharge for over 50 years. This project expects to deliver new knowledge of critical aquifer processes to inform the scheme operation, the largest in the country. Expected outcomes include ground-breaking management plans for the aquifer-replenishment scheme. Anticipated benefits involve balancing the needs of agriculture and the protection of pristine environments, including groundwater discharge to the Great Barrier Reef.
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An Australian storm wave damage and beach erosion early warning system. This project aims to develop a new coastal hazard early-warning system capability for Australia, to alert coastal communities, emergency managers and coastal engineers to impending storm wave damage and coastal erosion. Emergency preparedness informed by early warning is expected to significantly benefit vulnerable communities and infrastructure along Australia’s coasts.
Dating West Antarctic ice sheet collapse using molecular sequence data. This project aims to investigate the past stability and configuration of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet by examining genomic signatures in present day bottom-dwelling Antarctic marine animals. By employing this novel biological approach this project will provide an independent test of the hypothesis that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapsed during the most recent interglacial period and formed a trans-Antarctic seaway. Expec ....Dating West Antarctic ice sheet collapse using molecular sequence data. This project aims to investigate the past stability and configuration of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet by examining genomic signatures in present day bottom-dwelling Antarctic marine animals. By employing this novel biological approach this project will provide an independent test of the hypothesis that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapsed during the most recent interglacial period and formed a trans-Antarctic seaway. Expected project outcomes include increased resolution of the most recent collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. This project should provide benefits in predicting future ice sheet collapse and its impact on sea level rise, which is a key uncertainty resulting from climate change.Read moreRead less
Australia's variable rainfall - how dry or wet can it really get? Australia’s rainfall is extremely variable, which means existing weather records are too short to calculate the true risk posed by droughts and floods. This project aims to quantify how naturally variable the rainfall coming from the Indo-Pacific mid-latitudes is, allowing recent rainfall extremes and future projections to be assessed in a long-term context. This project expects to produce new estimates of atmospheric moisture bud ....Australia's variable rainfall - how dry or wet can it really get? Australia’s rainfall is extremely variable, which means existing weather records are too short to calculate the true risk posed by droughts and floods. This project aims to quantify how naturally variable the rainfall coming from the Indo-Pacific mid-latitudes is, allowing recent rainfall extremes and future projections to be assessed in a long-term context. This project expects to produce new estimates of atmospheric moisture budgets between Australia and Antarctica based on a novel, 1000-year length reconstruction of moisture-bearing southern Indian Ocean storms. This new information is critically needed by water managers so that they can properly calculate (and ultimately prepare for) the worst of Australia’s rainfall-related risks.Read moreRead less
New insights into abrupt climate change using isotope model-data fusion. There have been several episodes in the past 60,000 years during which carbon dioxide was released into the atmosphere causing significant and rapid warming. This project aims to determine the source of the carbon responsible for these warming events. This project is significant because it will increase our understanding of the processes underlying abrupt past, and potential future changes. These processes are currently und ....New insights into abrupt climate change using isotope model-data fusion. There have been several episodes in the past 60,000 years during which carbon dioxide was released into the atmosphere causing significant and rapid warming. This project aims to determine the source of the carbon responsible for these warming events. This project is significant because it will increase our understanding of the processes underlying abrupt past, and potential future changes. These processes are currently underestimated or missing in climate models. The expected outcomes include a better understanding of the non-linear responses in the climate system. This should provide significant benefits, such as an assessment of whether the smooth climate changes currently projected through to year 2100 are misleading.Read moreRead less
Investigating the controls on the extent of tidewater glaciers. This project aims to improve our ability to model tidewater glaciers. The project will conduct studies of two iconic glacial systems in Alaska: Glacier Bay and Columbia Glacier. These glaciers have recently experienced rapid retreat and contributed to sea level rise. In particular, the Grand Pacific Glacier has retreated 100 kilometres up Glacier Bay, the greatest recorded glacier retreat in the last 200 years. The project will use ....Investigating the controls on the extent of tidewater glaciers. This project aims to improve our ability to model tidewater glaciers. The project will conduct studies of two iconic glacial systems in Alaska: Glacier Bay and Columbia Glacier. These glaciers have recently experienced rapid retreat and contributed to sea level rise. In particular, the Grand Pacific Glacier has retreated 100 kilometres up Glacier Bay, the greatest recorded glacier retreat in the last 200 years. The project will use geomorphic mapping, dating and climate reanalysis to better understand the long term behaviour of these glaciers and the drivers of recent retreat. An expected outcome from the project is a better understanding of the long term behaviour of tidewater glaciers and an improvement in our ability to predict sea level rise from them.Read moreRead less
Past to future changes in ocean dynamics and biogeochemistry. This project aims to understand the impact of changes in ocean circulation on marine biogeochemistry, climate and ultimately the Antarctic ice-sheet by combining transient simulations of the last glacial cycle performed with an Earth system model incorporating the compilation of paleoproxy records. The oceanic circulation has varied over the last glacial cycle (~140,000 years) and is expected to change over the coming centuries due t ....Past to future changes in ocean dynamics and biogeochemistry. This project aims to understand the impact of changes in ocean circulation on marine biogeochemistry, climate and ultimately the Antarctic ice-sheet by combining transient simulations of the last glacial cycle performed with an Earth system model incorporating the compilation of paleoproxy records. The oceanic circulation has varied over the last glacial cycle (~140,000 years) and is expected to change over the coming centuries due to rising atmospheric carbon dioxide. The project will measure future changes in oceanic circulation on ocean acidification and oxygen content with a state-of-the-art high-resolution ocean carbon cycle model. This will lead to improved understanding of processes and feedbacks within the Earth system.Read moreRead less
Discovery Early Career Researcher Award - Grant ID: DE180101518
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$364,200.00
Summary
Aquifers as climate logs: untangling replenishment mechanisms. This project aims to develop methods that use environmental tracers to provide detailed information about groundwater ages and relate the age structure of groundwater systems to past climatic conditions. The impacts of climate change on groundwater resources is an important question in hydrogeological studies. The age of groundwater within an aquifer represents a detailed log of past recharge events. The project will generate methods ....Aquifers as climate logs: untangling replenishment mechanisms. This project aims to develop methods that use environmental tracers to provide detailed information about groundwater ages and relate the age structure of groundwater systems to past climatic conditions. The impacts of climate change on groundwater resources is an important question in hydrogeological studies. The age of groundwater within an aquifer represents a detailed log of past recharge events. The project will generate methods for assessing the past history of groundwater resources, and provide insight into the viability of groundwater in the future. This will improve understanding of how groundwater resources will behave under a changing climate.Read moreRead less
Effect of faults and barriers on groundwater flow and solute transport. This project will address the role of faults and dykes on groundwater flow and solute transport. Faults and dykes can act as barriers to groundwater flow, yet faults can also be conduits for flow through otherwise impermeable layers. Understanding their role is critical to assessing the impacts of mining, unconventional gas and water resource developments. This project expects to develop new methods to quantify groundwater f ....Effect of faults and barriers on groundwater flow and solute transport. This project will address the role of faults and dykes on groundwater flow and solute transport. Faults and dykes can act as barriers to groundwater flow, yet faults can also be conduits for flow through otherwise impermeable layers. Understanding their role is critical to assessing the impacts of mining, unconventional gas and water resource developments. This project expects to develop new methods to quantify groundwater flow through and along faults and dykes by combining geological, hydraulic and geochemical approaches with detailed 3D numerical models. The expected outcome will be an improved understanding of the role of faults and barriers in subsurface hydrology, and an improved ability to model complex groundwater systems.Read moreRead less