Economic consequences for Australia of global demographic change. In addition to addressing the economic implications of declining fertility and mortality in Australia this study will analyse major changes in demographic behaviour in regions on which Australia's economic health depends and the consequent changes in the flow of migrants into Australia. A new mathematical model of global population change will be integrated into the standard GTAP-dynamic model of global economic performance to pr ....Economic consequences for Australia of global demographic change. In addition to addressing the economic implications of declining fertility and mortality in Australia this study will analyse major changes in demographic behaviour in regions on which Australia's economic health depends and the consequent changes in the flow of migrants into Australia. A new mathematical model of global population change will be integrated into the standard GTAP-dynamic model of global economic performance to provide a useful tool for future analysis of Australia's population and economic policies. The analysis will contribute to policy development and the models will be widely available to policy institutions for their use.Read moreRead less
Socio-economic determinants of future fertility trends in Australia and other developed countries. Future demographic trends will do much to determine Australia's future. Fertility levels will dominate in deciding population numbers, age structure, and the optimum balance between natural increase and immigration. Current ARC-supported research on the theory of demographic transition provides a paradigm for forecasting likely trends, especially when employed with an existing data bank of findings ....Socio-economic determinants of future fertility trends in Australia and other developed countries. Future demographic trends will do much to determine Australia's future. Fertility levels will dominate in deciding population numbers, age structure, and the optimum balance between natural increase and immigration. Current ARC-supported research on the theory of demographic transition provides a paradigm for forecasting likely trends, especially when employed with an existing data bank of findings on social and demographic interrelations. The research is of great national benefit because even small differences in age structure will impact significantly on the size of the labour force, health services, the support of the aged and taxation levels. Relevant policy decisions will need to be made in the near future.Read moreRead less
Indonesian young adults facing the future. While much Indonesian research has focused on adolescent issues, young adults, those aged 20-34, the largest generation in Indonesian history, have been largely ignored both by researchers and policy makers. As the vanguard generation in Indonesia's new democratic, economic and cultural future, this generation's successful transition to adulthood is crucial. Research findings will engage the attention of key policy makers in Indonesia, many of whom are ....Indonesian young adults facing the future. While much Indonesian research has focused on adolescent issues, young adults, those aged 20-34, the largest generation in Indonesian history, have been largely ignored both by researchers and policy makers. As the vanguard generation in Indonesia's new democratic, economic and cultural future, this generation's successful transition to adulthood is crucial. Research findings will engage the attention of key policy makers in Indonesia, many of whom are parents of the study generation. The researchers have been working in this policy arena for over two decades. Indonesia's social, economic, religious and cultural stability will contribute to Australia's future and security.Read moreRead less
Below replacement fertility among Indigenous Australians: Course, Causes and Regional Variations. This research will enhance the knowledge base on Indigenous Australian fertility and provide a timely contribution to current debate about the social and economic consequences of low fertility and ageing. By engaging an early career researcher and an Indigenous research student, it will expand Australia's research capability on current and future Indigenous population dynamics in what has become a ....Below replacement fertility among Indigenous Australians: Course, Causes and Regional Variations. This research will enhance the knowledge base on Indigenous Australian fertility and provide a timely contribution to current debate about the social and economic consequences of low fertility and ageing. By engaging an early career researcher and an Indigenous research student, it will expand Australia's research capability on current and future Indigenous population dynamics in what has become a neglected area of research. It will ensure that full use is made of public expenditure on the collection of Indigenous social and demographic data. By extending linkages with researchers internationally, it will place Australia at the forefront of global efforts to understand Indigenous demographic transition.Read moreRead less
Interactive Demographic Transition: Analysis and Theory. The demographic transition, or decline in mortality and fertility levels to produce the modern small family and normally long-lived individuals, may well be the most important social change of our time. It has occasioned much research but theory is still in disarray. This is at least partly explained by a disregard for feed-back mechanisms in the form of organized movements supporting and opposing such demographic change. My aim is to r ....Interactive Demographic Transition: Analysis and Theory. The demographic transition, or decline in mortality and fertility levels to produce the modern small family and normally long-lived individuals, may well be the most important social change of our time. It has occasioned much research but theory is still in disarray. This is at least partly explained by a disregard for feed-back mechanisms in the form of organized movements supporting and opposing such demographic change. My aim is to reanalyze data from my own and others? work, taking such interactions into account, to produce a demographic transition theory suited both to historical explanation and the guidance of contemporary policy.Read moreRead less
Integrating population perspectives in Asian environmental debates. Sustainable development in Asia is crucial for the future welfare of all Asians, and for Australia. The population of Asia is over 60 percent of global population and the region is rapidly urbanizing and industrializing, thus creating an ever more onerous environmental footprint. The economic analytical work underpinning the assessment and amelioration of environmental challenges in Asia has long utilized simple population proje ....Integrating population perspectives in Asian environmental debates. Sustainable development in Asia is crucial for the future welfare of all Asians, and for Australia. The population of Asia is over 60 percent of global population and the region is rapidly urbanizing and industrializing, thus creating an ever more onerous environmental footprint. The economic analytical work underpinning the assessment and amelioration of environmental challenges in Asia has long utilized simple population projections. This project's methodologies will inform better policy and public debate to ensure that governments have more realistic understandings of the interaction between human population, human welfare and environmental integrity.Read moreRead less