Monsoon extremes, environmental shifts, and catastrophic volcanic eruptions: quantifying impacts on the early human history of southern Australasia. The coincidence of a long, diverse Australasian human history with Earth's greatest climate systems presents the Australian and Indonesian communities with unrivalled opportunities for scientific discovery. Our study will improve understanding of global climate change, environmental shifts, volcanic catastrophes, and their role in early human disper ....Monsoon extremes, environmental shifts, and catastrophic volcanic eruptions: quantifying impacts on the early human history of southern Australasia. The coincidence of a long, diverse Australasian human history with Earth's greatest climate systems presents the Australian and Indonesian communities with unrivalled opportunities for scientific discovery. Our study will improve understanding of global climate change, environmental shifts, volcanic catastrophes, and their role in early human dispersal, and extinction, in Australasia. The significance of the results will extend to the modern world, where human behaviour modifies, and is modified by, climate and environment. Integration of research strengths in Australia and Indonesia will contribute to an improved bilateral relationship in science, education, and training, and engage the public in the excitement of scientific discovery.Read moreRead less
Tropical convection and its contribution to climate variability. This research will provide the necessary data to test and improve the representation of tropical convective clouds in weather forecast and climate simulation models. This will lead to more robust estimates of future climate change, and improved prediction of precipitation in the Australian tropics. This project will also provide training to undergraduate and postgraduate students in using modern computer models; such models will be ....Tropical convection and its contribution to climate variability. This research will provide the necessary data to test and improve the representation of tropical convective clouds in weather forecast and climate simulation models. This will lead to more robust estimates of future climate change, and improved prediction of precipitation in the Australian tropics. This project will also provide training to undergraduate and postgraduate students in using modern computer models; such models will be a key component of weather forecasting in the future.Read moreRead less
Where will species go? Revolutionising projections of species distributions with climate change. Improving our capacity to predict climate change impacts on biodiversity is a National Research Priority and a priority under the National Biodiversity and Climate Change Action Plan (2004-2007). Our research will revolutionise the field of bioclimatic modelling by enabling the probability of losses/gains in species distributions to be calculated. This will enable policy makers to identify vulnerable ....Where will species go? Revolutionising projections of species distributions with climate change. Improving our capacity to predict climate change impacts on biodiversity is a National Research Priority and a priority under the National Biodiversity and Climate Change Action Plan (2004-2007). Our research will revolutionise the field of bioclimatic modelling by enabling the probability of losses/gains in species distributions to be calculated. This will enable policy makers to identify vulnerable species and provides a strong framework for prioritizing areas for research and monitoring. Our research will interface two disciplines, earth and biological sciences, and establish a new international collaboration that will ensure Australia is at the forefront of a rapidly developing research field. Read moreRead less
Are humans responsible for recent changes in the behaviour of tropical cyclones? Decoupling natural variability from human influence using isotopes. An increase in the frequency of intense landfalling tropical cyclones will have a major impact upon Australia's economy and the safety of its citizens and visitors. There is little doubt that global climate change will cause this increase. Understanding when this might occur and the extent of this change over and above that which could also occur na ....Are humans responsible for recent changes in the behaviour of tropical cyclones? Decoupling natural variability from human influence using isotopes. An increase in the frequency of intense landfalling tropical cyclones will have a major impact upon Australia's economy and the safety of its citizens and visitors. There is little doubt that global climate change will cause this increase. Understanding when this might occur and the extent of this change over and above that which could also occur naturally will help reduce economic loss and save peoples' lives. Using isotope records of tropical cyclones and global climate models we will differentiate natural from human induced changes and ascertain the likely future impact of this hazard on Australia and its near neighbours.Read moreRead less
Stable water isotopic simulation and analysis to improve Earth System models and deliver better predictions of Australian water resource vulnerability. As Australia's challenges in environmental sustainability rival those anywhere on Earth, we must be clever in our diagnosis of susceptibility and insightful in proposed remedies. Climate change and variability have impacts on people and society that must be managed effectively whatever their causes. Of importance to Australia is the availabilit ....Stable water isotopic simulation and analysis to improve Earth System models and deliver better predictions of Australian water resource vulnerability. As Australia's challenges in environmental sustainability rival those anywhere on Earth, we must be clever in our diagnosis of susceptibility and insightful in proposed remedies. Climate change and variability have impacts on people and society that must be managed effectively whatever their causes. Of importance to Australia is the availability of water for drinking and agriculture. The new, interdisciplinary ARC network for Earth System Science provides models for novel and synergistic research such as naturally occurring water isotopes as a tool for improving predictive skill and confidence. We exploit these and leverage international programs to improve regional hydro-climate and water resource understanding in Australia.Read moreRead less
Winter temperature and salinity profile measurements in the Southern Ocean using elephant seals as ocean sampling platforms. As a result of the paucity of winter data in the Southern Ocean, sophisticated ocean models such as the GFDL MOM are hampered in their ability to properly represent the complex processes in the Antarctic sea ice zone. Elephant seals forage in the Southern Ocean throughout winter, and traverse the water column between 0 and 800 metres many times each day, providing an oppo ....Winter temperature and salinity profile measurements in the Southern Ocean using elephant seals as ocean sampling platforms. As a result of the paucity of winter data in the Southern Ocean, sophisticated ocean models such as the GFDL MOM are hampered in their ability to properly represent the complex processes in the Antarctic sea ice zone. Elephant seals forage in the Southern Ocean throughout winter, and traverse the water column between 0 and 800 metres many times each day, providing an opportunity to collect profiles of temperature and salinity. The resulting data will contribute to oceanographic studies of water mass formation and frontal variability, including comparisons with historical data and assimilation into a complex ocean model.Read moreRead less
Physical, Chemical and Radiative Characteristics of Australian Continental Aerosols. Australian desert dust, and the biomass burning aerosol particles produced in the top-end burning season, have the potential to impose an environmental burden not only on Australia, but also on the surrounding region. While most of the world's major aerosol types have been well studied in recent years, these two remain largely unknown. There are good reasons to believe that Australian aerosols are different from ....Physical, Chemical and Radiative Characteristics of Australian Continental Aerosols. Australian desert dust, and the biomass burning aerosol particles produced in the top-end burning season, have the potential to impose an environmental burden not only on Australia, but also on the surrounding region. While most of the world's major aerosol types have been well studied in recent years, these two remain largely unknown. There are good reasons to believe that Australian aerosols are different from many others. We therefore intend to fully characterize their relevant properties, so we may monitor them from space, and evaluate their environmental impacts.Read moreRead less
Storm activity in the Arctic and implications for rapid climate change in polar regions. Australia's weather and climate is influenced in a myriad of ways by Antarctica and its environs. The complex manners in which weather systems interact with polar processes are fundamental in understanding these links. The dramatic changes which the Arctic has undergone in recent years present a very valuable environmental framework for understanding how the complex polar weather - climate connections change ....Storm activity in the Arctic and implications for rapid climate change in polar regions. Australia's weather and climate is influenced in a myriad of ways by Antarctica and its environs. The complex manners in which weather systems interact with polar processes are fundamental in understanding these links. The dramatic changes which the Arctic has undergone in recent years present a very valuable environmental framework for understanding how the complex polar weather - climate connections change during a period of rapid change. This is of great national and community benefit in that it will lead to a fuller understanding of the polar regions, and present a broader context in which precipitation and other changes over southern Australia can be understood.Read moreRead less
Rainfall over the Maritime Continent and Northern Australia. Australia's proximity to the tropics results in major influences, both direct and indirect, of tropical weather and climate on society as a whole. Tropical convection is key to all those influences. The prediction of the many natural hazards related to convection as well as a projection of the influence and strength of these hazards under climate change is a matter of high national priority. Through an improved understanding of convect ....Rainfall over the Maritime Continent and Northern Australia. Australia's proximity to the tropics results in major influences, both direct and indirect, of tropical weather and climate on society as a whole. Tropical convection is key to all those influences. The prediction of the many natural hazards related to convection as well as a projection of the influence and strength of these hazards under climate change is a matter of high national priority. Through an improved understanding of convection over tropical Australia and in its vicinity, the proposed research will improve our predictive tools and capabilities, thereby making a major contribution to decision-making in an environmentally sustainable Australia.Read moreRead less
A Dynamical Systems Approach to Mapping Southern Ocean Circulation Pathways. Climate change can be expected to have complex, long-term consequences for Australia's biodiversity, for our agricultural and marine production systems, and for regional communities. The Southern Ocean is a critical driver of global climate, connecting the three major oceanic basins. Using sophisticated mathematics to analyse state-of-the-art global ocean models, this project will create a detailed picture of hitherto i ....A Dynamical Systems Approach to Mapping Southern Ocean Circulation Pathways. Climate change can be expected to have complex, long-term consequences for Australia's biodiversity, for our agricultural and marine production systems, and for regional communities. The Southern Ocean is a critical driver of global climate, connecting the three major oceanic basins. Using sophisticated mathematics to analyse state-of-the-art global ocean models, this project will create a detailed picture of hitherto invisible Southern Ocean circulation 'pathways'. The newly discovered pathways will greatly enhance our understanding of the Southern Ocean circulation, lead to improved coupled climate models, and increase our ability to predict future climate change and threats to marine populations. Read moreRead less