Discovery Early Career Researcher Award - Grant ID: DE150100795
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$365,000.00
Summary
New approaches to estimating nonlinear time-varying macroeconometric models. Quantitative models are essential for formulating good policies. In a changing world, the analysis should be based on models that allow the behaviour of the economy to change over time. Due to computational limitations, however, one is often restricted to linear models, even when nonlinear ones are more appropriate. This project aims to develop new methods for estimating time-varying nonlinear models. Two important appl ....New approaches to estimating nonlinear time-varying macroeconometric models. Quantitative models are essential for formulating good policies. In a changing world, the analysis should be based on models that allow the behaviour of the economy to change over time. Due to computational limitations, however, one is often restricted to linear models, even when nonlinear ones are more appropriate. This project aims to develop new methods for estimating time-varying nonlinear models. Two important applications are also considered: one investigates how the zero lower bound on interest rates affects the monetary policy transmission mechanism; and, the other examines how uncertainties about monetary and fiscal policy affect economic growth and inflation. This project will have strong practical significance for conducting macroeconomic policy.Read moreRead less
Random network models with applications in biology. Complex biological systems consist of a large number of interacting agents or components, and so can be studied using mathematical random network models. We aim to gain deeper insights into the laws emerging as the random networks evolve in time. This can help us to deal with dangerous disease epidemics and better understand the human brain.
Risk management with real-time financial and business conditions indicators. This project will develop new methods that combine financial and macroeconomic information that arrives at different intervals to better understand the implications of this information for risk management and policy decision-making. This will support better risk management strategies especially when economic conditions are very volatile.
Fair pricing of superannuation guaranteed benefits with downturn risk. Australians have more than $2.7 trillion in superannuation assets, meaning that Australia is the fourth largest holder of pension fund assets worldwide. Hence the impact of market fluctuations on financial well-being of retirees can be detrimental, especially during market downturns associated with economic crises. The finance industry addresses this issue by complementing variable annuities with riders designed to protect th ....Fair pricing of superannuation guaranteed benefits with downturn risk. Australians have more than $2.7 trillion in superannuation assets, meaning that Australia is the fourth largest holder of pension fund assets worldwide. Hence the impact of market fluctuations on financial well-being of retirees can be detrimental, especially during market downturns associated with economic crises. The finance industry addresses this issue by complementing variable annuities with riders designed to protect the income stream of retirees. This project aims to develop a novel approach to fair pricing and optimal withdrawals and surrender policies for superannuation guaranteed benefit products through a comprehensive analysis of complex optimisation problems in stochastic models of financial markets with downturn risk.Read moreRead less
A robust approach to designing mechanisms for budget constrained agents. This project aims to study the design of robust implementable allocation mechanisms for agents who face financial constraints. Financial constraints are important for housing markets, big business auctions and government procurement. Yet their effect on the performance of allocation policies is not well understood. The project intends to develop a general and tractable framework of allocation mechanisms that are implementab ....A robust approach to designing mechanisms for budget constrained agents. This project aims to study the design of robust implementable allocation mechanisms for agents who face financial constraints. Financial constraints are important for housing markets, big business auctions and government procurement. Yet their effect on the performance of allocation policies is not well understood. The project intends to develop a general and tractable framework of allocation mechanisms that are implementable without deficits. The project will adapt this framework to the study of revenue-maximising multi-object auctions with complementarities, and to house allocation problems and related situations where efficiency and priority assignments are important considerations. The project expects to provide policy insights and implications relevant to the Australian housing market.Read moreRead less
The rate of time preference in choice experiments: A systematic re-analysis. This project intends to re-analyse data from over 20 years of past research to understand when and why people sometimes make short-sighted choices. Time preference is a core concept in both theoretical and applied economics and a key input in public policy, yet empirical understanding of it is poor. Almost all important decisions of households, businesses and government involve benefits and costs that unfold over time. ....The rate of time preference in choice experiments: A systematic re-analysis. This project intends to re-analyse data from over 20 years of past research to understand when and why people sometimes make short-sighted choices. Time preference is a core concept in both theoretical and applied economics and a key input in public policy, yet empirical understanding of it is poor. Almost all important decisions of households, businesses and government involve benefits and costs that unfold over time. Many economists have used decision-making experiments to study how people value the future and make trade-offs over time, but these have not reached any clear consensus. This project plans to systematically re-analyse primary data using state-of-the-art estimation techniques to generate new estimates of the discount rate for each study. These will then be analysed in a meta-regression analysis to identify the factors that cause discount rates to vary between studies.Read moreRead less
Discovery Early Career Researcher Award - Grant ID: DE200100653
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$399,350.00
Summary
Tools of racial control: an economic analysis of laws vs. violence. This project aims to develop and empirically test a theory of racial violence, which predicts that as racist laws are removed, racial violence increases. To test this hypothesis, I will construct a new, comprehensive dataset of lynchings and racist legislation in post-Civil War America, where newly freed blacks gained significant freedoms, but also experienced widespread violence. The empirical analysis proposes to identify a no ....Tools of racial control: an economic analysis of laws vs. violence. This project aims to develop and empirically test a theory of racial violence, which predicts that as racist laws are removed, racial violence increases. To test this hypothesis, I will construct a new, comprehensive dataset of lynchings and racist legislation in post-Civil War America, where newly freed blacks gained significant freedoms, but also experienced widespread violence. The empirical analysis proposes to identify a novel mechanism for racial violence in this context: a desire for racial control in areas that incurred shocks to the white sex ratio during the Civil War and distorted marriage markets thereafter. The findings aim to significantly contribute to our understanding of racial violence in both the US and Australia today.Read moreRead less
Estimating the effects of fiscal policy. This project will develop highly flexible models for estimating the effects of fiscal policy, as well as providing insight into how economic assumptions affect these estimates and which assumptions are supported by historical experience. The models and estimates will be useful for researchers, policymakers and businesses.
Discovery Early Career Researcher Award - Grant ID: DE160100964
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$371,000.00
Summary
Understanding and designing persuasion mechanisms. The objective of this project is to understand and design persuasion mechanisms. Persuasion is about conveying information, influencing beliefs and manipulating actions. Educational campaigns and media censorship regulations are examples of persuasion mechanisms. Existing techniques from the economics of persuasion only permit analysis of specific and limited settings. This project aims to apply the classical mechanism design approach in a novel ....Understanding and designing persuasion mechanisms. The objective of this project is to understand and design persuasion mechanisms. Persuasion is about conveying information, influencing beliefs and manipulating actions. Educational campaigns and media censorship regulations are examples of persuasion mechanisms. Existing techniques from the economics of persuasion only permit analysis of specific and limited settings. This project aims to apply the classical mechanism design approach in a novel way to model persuasion in rich and realistic settings, thus providing insights into real-world situations. It is anticipated that this will allow us to answer questions such as ‘Should an educational campaign target different consumers with different information?’ and ‘When should a government censor extreme media outlets?'.Read moreRead less
Information design, cognitive abilities and macro-economic stability. This project aims to improve our understanding of individual decision making in financial markets and its implications for macro-economic stability. Using laboratory and internet experiments, models of adaptive choice behaviour will be developed and validated. The project will help to gain insight into how past information, and the way it is presented, affects investment decisions, which individual characteristics matter for d ....Information design, cognitive abilities and macro-economic stability. This project aims to improve our understanding of individual decision making in financial markets and its implications for macro-economic stability. Using laboratory and internet experiments, models of adaptive choice behaviour will be developed and validated. The project will help to gain insight into how past information, and the way it is presented, affects investment decisions, which individual characteristics matter for decisions, and how this behaviour translates into the evolution of aggregate macro-economic variables. The expected outcomes of the project will have the potential to improve the design of tools for better individual financial decision making, to stabilize volatile markets and to enhance economic welfare.Read moreRead less