Computing probabilities of theories where these probabilities vary over time with applications in macroeconomics. This project will present a method to produce empirically based policy advice that accounts for the changing economic environment and that allows for a range of assumptions about how the economy works. The research and training will place Australia at the forefront of empirical macroeconomic research and strengthen international research networks. Policy making will be improved as: i ....Computing probabilities of theories where these probabilities vary over time with applications in macroeconomics. This project will present a method to produce empirically based policy advice that accounts for the changing economic environment and that allows for a range of assumptions about how the economy works. The research and training will place Australia at the forefront of empirical macroeconomic research and strengthen international research networks. Policy making will be improved as: it will use information that is more robust to false assumptions; it will quickly incorporate new information; and we will understand better why certain policies did or did not work at different times in the past. The research will impact upon other sciences such as physics and engineering that use the same underlying tools far more than do economists.Read moreRead less
From Periphery to Central: the Politics of China's Central Banking Reform and the Building of a Financial Infrastructure in an Age of Transition. China's rapid economic growth and gradual integration with the international system, in particular the increasingly strong economic links between Australia and China, means Australia now has a big stake in China's financial and economic stability. By explaining the dynamics of China's central banking reform, monetary policy and banking reform since 197 ....From Periphery to Central: the Politics of China's Central Banking Reform and the Building of a Financial Infrastructure in an Age of Transition. China's rapid economic growth and gradual integration with the international system, in particular the increasingly strong economic links between Australia and China, means Australia now has a big stake in China's financial and economic stability. By explaining the dynamics of China's central banking reform, monetary policy and banking reform since 1979, this project will significantly enhance our capacity to interpret monetary policy management and financial development in China, to support our commitment to states in the Asia Pacific region that are dealing with economic reforms and transition, and more importantly, to exert influence on the desired direction of change in China through engagement with the Chinese monetary authority.Read moreRead less
Nonlinear Econometric Modelling: A Complex Systems Perspective. It is becoming increasingly accepted that economic systems are both complex and adaptive. However, this introduces a range of problems in constructing, estimating and testing economic models using time series data. In this project, this problem will be addressed through the formulation and implementation of a new methodology and associated techniques. These techniques will allow a researcher to use information obtained from a set o ....Nonlinear Econometric Modelling: A Complex Systems Perspective. It is becoming increasingly accepted that economic systems are both complex and adaptive. However, this introduces a range of problems in constructing, estimating and testing economic models using time series data. In this project, this problem will be addressed through the formulation and implementation of a new methodology and associated techniques. These techniques will allow a researcher to use information obtained from a set of nonlinearity tests to determine which type of nonlinear model provides the best representation of a data generating mechanism. Selected high frequency financial and macroeconomic data (for the US and Australia) will be used in the study. This research is intended to change the direction and emphasis of econometric modelling and promises to have a fundamental impact on forecasting and policy evaluation methods.
Read moreRead less