Modelling patient flows through hospitals: optimizing effective use of resources. Hospitals are complex, dynamic systems confronted by increased demand in the face of shrinking real capacity. Managing such systems is currently undertaken with sub-optimal analytical support, particularly when demand and capacity are changing and resources must be manipulated to respond to such changes. In this project, the investigators will apply a mathematical modelling approach to the analysis of hospital pati ....Modelling patient flows through hospitals: optimizing effective use of resources. Hospitals are complex, dynamic systems confronted by increased demand in the face of shrinking real capacity. Managing such systems is currently undertaken with sub-optimal analytical support, particularly when demand and capacity are changing and resources must be manipulated to respond to such changes. In this project, the investigators will apply a mathematical modelling approach to the analysis of hospital patient flows. Furthermore, they will employ statistical process control methodologies to the problem of recognising and responding to changes in the flows, so that performance objectives are met. In doing this, they will give health service managers and clinicians a significant advantage in deciding how best to manage a constrained resource to maximize access, throughput and patient outcomes.Read moreRead less
Modeling Healthcare Systems. An efficient healthcare system is essential for the well-being of any society. The aim of the project is to develop major advances in the mathematical modelling of healthcare systems, in order to improve efficiency, and ultimately, patient health. The first expected outcome is the development of mathematical models that constitute a high-level description of patient flow through hospitals and subacute care, so that demands for emergency and elective capacity are met ....Modeling Healthcare Systems. An efficient healthcare system is essential for the well-being of any society. The aim of the project is to develop major advances in the mathematical modelling of healthcare systems, in order to improve efficiency, and ultimately, patient health. The first expected outcome is the development of mathematical models that constitute a high-level description of patient flow through hospitals and subacute care, so that demands for emergency and elective capacity are met given limited resources. The second is the development of a bed allocation algorithm that allocates patients to appropriate wards, so as to optimise the set of performance indicators of the system under appropriate constraints, given the current ward occupancy.Read moreRead less
Computational methods for precise reconstruction of white-matter fibre tracts in the human brain using diffusion tensor imaging. One in five Australians will experience a mental illness. This project will facilitate a new method for: (1) brain researchers to advance the fundamental understanding of mental illnesses and brain disorders; (2) medical clinicians to diagnose and assess the growing incidence of mental illness confronting Australia's ageing population, thereby addressing the ageing wel ....Computational methods for precise reconstruction of white-matter fibre tracts in the human brain using diffusion tensor imaging. One in five Australians will experience a mental illness. This project will facilitate a new method for: (1) brain researchers to advance the fundamental understanding of mental illnesses and brain disorders; (2) medical clinicians to diagnose and assess the growing incidence of mental illness confronting Australia's ageing population, thereby addressing the ageing well and ageing productively national research priority; and, (3) neurosurgeons to guide surgery via localisation of major neural tracts. In addition to contributing to the understanding, diagnosis and treatment of Australia's endemic mental health burden, this project will advance Australia's skill-base and international standing in basic scientific research.Read moreRead less
Mixture models for high-dimensional clustering with applications to tumour classification, network intrusion, and text classification. This project will benefit the Australian Society as a whole by developing statistical methodology for the clustering of high-dimensional data. In particular, it will develop a novel and efficient model for extracting useful information from subpopulations. It thus has wide applicability to improving the quality and validity of applied research in most industries ....Mixture models for high-dimensional clustering with applications to tumour classification, network intrusion, and text classification. This project will benefit the Australian Society as a whole by developing statistical methodology for the clustering of high-dimensional data. In particular, it will develop a novel and efficient model for extracting useful information from subpopulations. It thus has wide applicability to improving the quality and validity of applied research in most industries in Australia. More specifically, it is to be applied here to classify brain tumours and detect network intruders. This cross-disciplinary project will contribute to Australia's economic of public health, protect Australia from crime, and strength Australian researchers' capacity and capability of participating in this emerging science.Read moreRead less
Theory and applications of Bayesian and likelihood analyses for finite mixture, random effect and multinomial models. The expected outcomes of the project are: to establish the scientific
value of modern Bayesian methods for statistical inference in a wider
range of applications than previously available, to contribute to the greater unification of the current theories of statistical inference which are to some extent in conflict, and to provide a set of Bayesian analytic tools implemented in ....Theory and applications of Bayesian and likelihood analyses for finite mixture, random effect and multinomial models. The expected outcomes of the project are: to establish the scientific
value of modern Bayesian methods for statistical inference in a wider
range of applications than previously available, to contribute to the greater unification of the current theories of statistical inference which are to some extent in conflict, and to provide a set of Bayesian analytic tools implemented in widely available, free and open-source statistical software.
Read moreRead less
Developing mathematical models and statistical methods to understand the dynamics of infectious diseases: stochasticity, structure and inference. Infectious diseases remain a major contributor to mortality and illness worldwide. The potential for future severe pandemics also continues to present a substantial threat to our health and well-being. Mathematics and statistics are increasingly becoming part of the arsenal used by governments to combat the invasion and spread of infectious diseases. I ....Developing mathematical models and statistical methods to understand the dynamics of infectious diseases: stochasticity, structure and inference. Infectious diseases remain a major contributor to mortality and illness worldwide. The potential for future severe pandemics also continues to present a substantial threat to our health and well-being. Mathematics and statistics are increasingly becoming part of the arsenal used by governments to combat the invasion and spread of infectious diseases. In such work, three themes have emerged as having the potential to revolutionise the modelling of infectious diseases: stochasticity, structure (both age and spatial), and inference. This project will develop state-of-the-art techniques, at the interface of these themes, of critical importance to understanding the dynamics of infectious diseases.Read moreRead less
Models for Australian Electricity Derivatives. Electricity derivatives, such as electricity futures and options are used to manage the risk associated with volatility in prices of electricity. This project aims to develop models for pricing electricity derivatives specifically suited for Australia. Because of the non-storable nature of electricity the standard option pricing principle of "no-arbitrage" does not apply to electricity options, such as caps and floors, but applies to options on elec ....Models for Australian Electricity Derivatives. Electricity derivatives, such as electricity futures and options are used to manage the risk associated with volatility in prices of electricity. This project aims to develop models for pricing electricity derivatives specifically suited for Australia. Because of the non-storable nature of electricity the standard option pricing principle of "no-arbitrage" does not apply to electricity options, such as caps and floors, but applies to options on electricity futures. Therefore a specific model is needed that takes into account the pricing principle of "no-arbitrage" and combines it with other factors that drive electricity prices. The novel element in this proposal is incorporation of the weather forecasts into the models for electricity options. As a result of this study appropriate models for electricity derivatives for various geographical regions in Australia will be developed.Read moreRead less
Fundamental investigation of heat and mass transfer in nanofluids: a mechanistic approach. This project aims to develop a mathematical model in order to predict complex boiling in using nanofluids as new coolant for heat removal. Implementation and resultant computer codes thereafter will provide industries with significant benefits and reduce times and costs in their future design of ultra-high efficient heat removal systems.
Stochastic modelling of spatiotemporal nonlinear diffusion processes with multifractal characteristics. This research is relevant to solute transport and plume evolution in heterogeneous media. Detailed modelling of these processes is computer-intensive, while the diffusion models of this project offer a more economical alternative. Our study will also benefit the research on the salinity problem. Excessive demand for irrigation water to support agricultural production has stretched freshwater a ....Stochastic modelling of spatiotemporal nonlinear diffusion processes with multifractal characteristics. This research is relevant to solute transport and plume evolution in heterogeneous media. Detailed modelling of these processes is computer-intensive, while the diffusion models of this project offer a more economical alternative. Our study will also benefit the research on the salinity problem. Excessive demand for irrigation water to support agricultural production has stretched freshwater aquifers beyond their long-term yield. Large areas of land have been lost to saltwater intrusion. This proposal will provide suitable tools to predict the level and movement of saltwater in the aquifers. Application to the development of management strategies would bring direct benefit to coastal areas where salinity is a sustainability issue.Read moreRead less
Stochastic modelling and analysis of spatio-temporal processes with fractal characteristics. Interest has grown in recent years on the derivation of fractal models to represent certain physical phenomena such as diffusion and transport in porous media, oceanic and atmospheric turbulence, climatology, etc. This project focuses on the phenomenon of diffusion on domains with multifractal geometry. Recent advances in harmonic analysis on fractals and our own development of fractional generalized ran ....Stochastic modelling and analysis of spatio-temporal processes with fractal characteristics. Interest has grown in recent years on the derivation of fractal models to represent certain physical phenomena such as diffusion and transport in porous media, oceanic and atmospheric turbulence, climatology, etc. This project focuses on the phenomenon of diffusion on domains with multifractal geometry. Recent advances in harmonic analysis on fractals and our own development of fractional generalized random fields allow us to formulate a comprehensive program to tackle some key problems including modeling, processing and statistical estimation of fractional diffusion. Advances made in this program will in turn benefit the developments in related scientific fields.Read moreRead less