Computational methods for population-size-dependent branching processes. Branching processes are the primary mathematical tool used to model populations that evolve randomly in time. Most key results in the theory are derived under the simplifying assumption that individuals reproduce and die independently of each other. However, this assumption fails in most real-life situations, in particular when the environment has limited resources or when the habitat has a restricted capacity. This project ....Computational methods for population-size-dependent branching processes. Branching processes are the primary mathematical tool used to model populations that evolve randomly in time. Most key results in the theory are derived under the simplifying assumption that individuals reproduce and die independently of each other. However, this assumption fails in most real-life situations, in particular when the environment has limited resources or when the habitat has a restricted capacity. This project aims to develop novel and effective algorithmic techniques and statistical methods for a class of branching processes with dependences. We will use these results to study significant problems in the conservation of endangered island bird populations in Oceania, and to help inform their conservation management.Read moreRead less
Random fields: non-Gaussian stochastic models and approximation schemes. The project aims to address important problems in the theory and statistics of stochastic processes and develop new methodology for their applications. This project expects to generate new knowledge about stochastic processes defined on multidimensional spaces and surfaces that are used in spatio-temporal data modelling. Main anticipated outcomes include
- developing approximation schemes for new complex data and investi ....Random fields: non-Gaussian stochastic models and approximation schemes. The project aims to address important problems in the theory and statistics of stochastic processes and develop new methodology for their applications. This project expects to generate new knowledge about stochastic processes defined on multidimensional spaces and surfaces that are used in spatio-temporal data modelling. Main anticipated outcomes include
- developing approximation schemes for new complex data and investigating their accuracy and reliability;
- studying nonlinear statistics and transformations of these data;
- providing new tools to investigate complex real data, in particular, in cosmology and embryology.
The results should provide significant benefits for optimal modelling and analysis of high resolution big data.Read moreRead less
Surveillance and sampling to maintain absence of pests and diseases. This project aims to develop empirically validated statistical and mathematical methods for industry and government to deliver more efficient biosecurity surveillance programs. The project endeavours to enhance biosecurity at the border and within Australia, while minimising the costs and burden of testing. Expected project outcomes include effective surveillance and sampling for high-priority threats, accessible software for d ....Surveillance and sampling to maintain absence of pests and diseases. This project aims to develop empirically validated statistical and mathematical methods for industry and government to deliver more efficient biosecurity surveillance programs. The project endeavours to enhance biosecurity at the border and within Australia, while minimising the costs and burden of testing. Expected project outcomes include effective surveillance and sampling for high-priority threats, accessible software for decision-makers, and generalisable approaches to address rapidly increasing biosecurity risks. Significant benefits include maintaining absence of key pathogens and pests in Australia.Read moreRead less
Scalable and Robust Bayesian Inference for Implicit Statistical Models. This project aims to develop the next generation of efficient methods for fitting complex simulation-based statistical models to data. Practitioners and scientists are interested in such implicit models to enable discoveries, produce accurate predictions and inform decisions under uncertainty. However, the associated computational cost has restricted researchers to implicit models that must have a small number of parameters ....Scalable and Robust Bayesian Inference for Implicit Statistical Models. This project aims to develop the next generation of efficient methods for fitting complex simulation-based statistical models to data. Practitioners and scientists are interested in such implicit models to enable discoveries, produce accurate predictions and inform decisions under uncertainty. However, the associated computational cost has restricted researchers to implicit models that must have a small number of parameters and be well specified, impeding scientific progress. This project will develop new computational methods and algorithms for implicit models that scale to high dimensions and are robust to misspecification. Benefits will arise from the more routine use of implicit models in epidemiology, biology, ecology and other fields.Read moreRead less
Advances in Sequential Monte Carlo Methods for Complex Bayesian Models. This project aims to develop efficient statistical algorithms for parameter estimation of complex stochastic models that currently cannot be handled. Parameter estimation is an essential component of mathematical modelling for answering scientific questions and revealing new insights. Current parameter estimation methods can be inefficient and require too much user intervention. This project will develop novel Bayesian alg ....Advances in Sequential Monte Carlo Methods for Complex Bayesian Models. This project aims to develop efficient statistical algorithms for parameter estimation of complex stochastic models that currently cannot be handled. Parameter estimation is an essential component of mathematical modelling for answering scientific questions and revealing new insights. Current parameter estimation methods can be inefficient and require too much user intervention. This project will develop novel Bayesian algorithms that are optimally automated and efficient by exploiting ever-improving parallel computing devices. The new methods will allow practitioners to process realistic models, enabling new scientific discoveries in a wide range of disciplines such as biology, ecology, agriculture, hydrology and finance.Read moreRead less
Statistical methods for quantifying variation in spatiotemporal areal data. This project aims to develop new statistical methods for extracting insights into spatial and temporal variation in areal data. These tools will extend the Australian Cancer Atlas which provides small area estimates for 20 cancers across Australia. The project is significant because it will allow government and other organisations to reap dividends from investment in collecting spatial information and it will enable mode ....Statistical methods for quantifying variation in spatiotemporal areal data. This project aims to develop new statistical methods for extracting insights into spatial and temporal variation in areal data. These tools will extend the Australian Cancer Atlas which provides small area estimates for 20 cancers across Australia. The project is significant because it will allow government and other organisations to reap dividends from investment in collecting spatial information and it will enable modelled small-area estimates to be released without compromising confidentiality. The expected outcomes include new statistical knowledge and new insights into cancer. The results will benefit the many disciplines, managers and policy makers that make decisions based on geographic data mapped over space and time. Read moreRead less
In for the count: Maximising trust and reliability in Australian elections. This project aims to develop innovative approaches to identifying, measuring, and evaluating errors and purposeful intervention in the uniquely complex elections at the basis of Australian democracy. Such methods can underpin a world-class election auditing system, which contends with the risks that are emerging at the intersection of election digitisation, cybersecurity and foreign interference. The project’s expected o ....In for the count: Maximising trust and reliability in Australian elections. This project aims to develop innovative approaches to identifying, measuring, and evaluating errors and purposeful intervention in the uniquely complex elections at the basis of Australian democracy. Such methods can underpin a world-class election auditing system, which contends with the risks that are emerging at the intersection of election digitisation, cybersecurity and foreign interference. The project’s expected outcomes are new auditing methods, tested on real Australian election data, with their benefits quantified against global best practice. The research outputs should help reinforce the community’s trust in Australian elections, which are a foundation for our security, social cohesion, and political resilience.Read moreRead less
Discovery Early Career Researcher Award - Grant ID: DE200101253
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$349,586.00
Summary
Making Machine Learning Fair(er). This project aims to develop and implement statistical methods to fight against algorithm bias. In doing so, this project expects to generate new knowledge in the mathematical sciences by employing innovative and interdisciplinary approaches to the development of fairness constraints on machine learning algorithms. Fairness will be seen through the lens of invariance, allowing the developed conceptual framework to find broad applications. Expected outcomes of t ....Making Machine Learning Fair(er). This project aims to develop and implement statistical methods to fight against algorithm bias. In doing so, this project expects to generate new knowledge in the mathematical sciences by employing innovative and interdisciplinary approaches to the development of fairness constraints on machine learning algorithms. Fairness will be seen through the lens of invariance, allowing the developed conceptual framework to find broad applications. Expected outcomes of this project include improved techniques for imposing invariance on deep learning algorithms. This should provide significant benefits to the general public by contributing to the advancement of socially responsible and conscientious machine learning.Read moreRead less
Fair pricing of superannuation guaranteed benefits with downturn risk. Australians have more than $2.7 trillion in superannuation assets, meaning that Australia is the fourth largest holder of pension fund assets worldwide. Hence the impact of market fluctuations on financial well-being of retirees can be detrimental, especially during market downturns associated with economic crises. The finance industry addresses this issue by complementing variable annuities with riders designed to protect th ....Fair pricing of superannuation guaranteed benefits with downturn risk. Australians have more than $2.7 trillion in superannuation assets, meaning that Australia is the fourth largest holder of pension fund assets worldwide. Hence the impact of market fluctuations on financial well-being of retirees can be detrimental, especially during market downturns associated with economic crises. The finance industry addresses this issue by complementing variable annuities with riders designed to protect the income stream of retirees. This project aims to develop a novel approach to fair pricing and optimal withdrawals and surrender policies for superannuation guaranteed benefit products through a comprehensive analysis of complex optimisation problems in stochastic models of financial markets with downturn risk.Read moreRead less
Precision ecology: the modern era of designed experiments in plant ecology. This project aims to develop the field of precision ecology, forging a new era of designed experiments where sampling is informed by research questions and what is known about the ecological process being studied. Through the development of novel statistical methods, new experiments globally will be designed to answer important ecological questions including what influence abiotic and biotic factors have on plant commun ....Precision ecology: the modern era of designed experiments in plant ecology. This project aims to develop the field of precision ecology, forging a new era of designed experiments where sampling is informed by research questions and what is known about the ecological process being studied. Through the development of novel statistical methods, new experiments globally will be designed to answer important ecological questions including what influence abiotic and biotic factors have on plant communities over time and different spatial scales. Expected outcomes include new methods and tools that will modernise how future experiments will be conducted in plant ecology. This will provide significant transdisciplinary benefits including new statistical methods that target scientific discovery in ecological studies.Read moreRead less