Utilizing the geological record to constrain the response of marine ecosystems and global carbon cycling to warming and de-oxygenation. Earth history is punctuated by a huge variety of transitions and perturbations in climate, biogeochemical cycling, and ecosystems, some of which may hold direct future-relevant information. In the oceans, these are closely linked in a complex web of feedbacks, as well as to the oxygenation of the ocean and the ultimate geological fate of excessive carbon release ....Utilizing the geological record to constrain the response of marine ecosystems and global carbon cycling to warming and de-oxygenation. Earth history is punctuated by a huge variety of transitions and perturbations in climate, biogeochemical cycling, and ecosystems, some of which may hold direct future-relevant information. In the oceans, these are closely linked in a complex web of feedbacks, as well as to the oxygenation of the ocean and the ultimate geological fate of excessive carbon released into the atmosphere – burial of carbon in sediments. This project will develop a computer model representation of this coupled carbon-climate-life system and test this against the geological record, explore the causes and consequences of carbon release events and extinctions as well as how the ocean floor delivery and preservation of organic carbon responds.Read moreRead less
Systems modelling for synergistic ecological-climate dynamics. The project aims to improve forecasts of the response of biodiversity to future climate change and so improve on-ground conservation management. A systems modelling framework will be developed and tested against real-world data to integrate a wide variety of biological and geophysical inputs and so produce more realistic predictions.
Integrating models with molecular 'logbooks' to better forecast extinction risk from climate change. Current forecasts indicate that human-driven climate change will likely cause widespread biodiversity loss. However, climatic shifts during the Quaternary (2.6 million years ago to present), similar in magnitude to those projected for the 21st century, did not apparently cause extensive extinctions (with the exception of the megafauna). This project aims to use models linked to past responses imp ....Integrating models with molecular 'logbooks' to better forecast extinction risk from climate change. Current forecasts indicate that human-driven climate change will likely cause widespread biodiversity loss. However, climatic shifts during the Quaternary (2.6 million years ago to present), similar in magnitude to those projected for the 21st century, did not apparently cause extensive extinctions (with the exception of the megafauna). This project aims to use models linked to past responses imprinted in species’ genes to resolve whether the disparity between observed and predicted extinction rates comes from models over-predicting species loss due to climate change. It will use this genetic-demographic approach to improve predictions of biodiversity responses to global change by establishing the biological and environmental determinants of extinction.Read moreRead less
Methods for establishing cumulative CO2 emission budgets for Australia. Limiting global warming requires curbing cumulative carbon emissions. However, we do not know how the quasi-linear relationship between cumulative carbon dioxide emissions and maximal warming is modulated by other climate-relevant gases (for example, sulphur oxide or Methane) nor have we quantified the relationship in sufficient detail for aligning national and international policy strategies. This project will develop new m ....Methods for establishing cumulative CO2 emission budgets for Australia. Limiting global warming requires curbing cumulative carbon emissions. However, we do not know how the quasi-linear relationship between cumulative carbon dioxide emissions and maximal warming is modulated by other climate-relevant gases (for example, sulphur oxide or Methane) nor have we quantified the relationship in sufficient detail for aligning national and international policy strategies. This project will develop new methods to establish global emission budgets for various climate targets and likelihoods. Options for Australia’s share will be quantified on the basis of effort-sharing proposals. This research is vital for Australian policy makers, the energy sector, and the public in order to plan for coming decades.Read moreRead less
Safeguarding coral reef fisheries for future food security. This Fellowship aims to address the vulnerability of coral reef fisheries in Australia and the Indo-Pacific by identifying fishery targets that benefit human nutrition and will persist despite declining coral habitats and rising water temperature. This project will advance knowledge on coral and fish responses to increasingly frequent marine heatwaves, using novel methodologies rooted in ecological modelling, experimental marine biology ....Safeguarding coral reef fisheries for future food security. This Fellowship aims to address the vulnerability of coral reef fisheries in Australia and the Indo-Pacific by identifying fishery targets that benefit human nutrition and will persist despite declining coral habitats and rising water temperature. This project will advance knowledge on coral and fish responses to increasingly frequent marine heatwaves, using novel methodologies rooted in ecological modelling, experimental marine biology and climate forecasting. Expected outcomes include (i) a comprehensive toolbox for improved management of coral reefs and associated fisheries in Australia and beyond, and (ii) an integrated socio-ecological model for predicting coral reef fishery responses under environmental change.Read moreRead less
Palaeoclimate reconstructions from the isotopic signatures of fossilised leaf waxes. This project develops a method for using the chemical signature of fossilised leaf waxes to reconstruct hydrologic change in south-eastern Australia during the Holocene (last 10,000 years) and Eocene (56-34 million years ago). Understanding climate in the geologic past is essential for testing models and projecting future climate with rising carbon dioxide.
Quantifying the economic and social impacts of drought in rural Australia. Climate-change research predicts drought is likely to increase its frequency, duration and severity, drastically challenging Australian agriculture and rural societies. The aim of this project is to use innovative techniques to analyse (i) national datasets to determine the economic and social impacts of droughts in rural and regional Australia; and (ii) the results of a national survey to estimate and understand farmers’ ....Quantifying the economic and social impacts of drought in rural Australia. Climate-change research predicts drought is likely to increase its frequency, duration and severity, drastically challenging Australian agriculture and rural societies. The aim of this project is to use innovative techniques to analyse (i) national datasets to determine the economic and social impacts of droughts in rural and regional Australia; and (ii) the results of a national survey to estimate and understand farmers’ drought adaptation responses to carbon-credit market signals. The outcomes are expected to be a major step in developing and implementing cost-effective drought policies and services to minimise its complex impacts, strengthen rural and regional community resilience, and enhance sustainable agriculture in Australia. Read moreRead less
Resolving how five million years of dramatic climatic changes shaped Australia's unique fauna. Australia’s biota is a product of its unique heritage, tectonic history and most especially its climate. Over the past five million years it has been beset by a series of intense climatic shifts driven by a combination of global and regional factors. This project will be the first to track faunal responses to environmental changes across this critical interval. It will establish the dynamics of the ori ....Resolving how five million years of dramatic climatic changes shaped Australia's unique fauna. Australia’s biota is a product of its unique heritage, tectonic history and most especially its climate. Over the past five million years it has been beset by a series of intense climatic shifts driven by a combination of global and regional factors. This project will be the first to track faunal responses to environmental changes across this critical interval. It will establish the dynamics of the origin of the modern southern vertebrate fauna, analysing changes in diversity, diet and community structure. By exploring associations between phases of faunal turnover and key climatic transitions, it will bring a Southern Hemisphere perspective to evolutionary models of Cenozoic faunal change largely generated to date from Northern Hemisphere data.Read moreRead less
Trying times: Millennial to million year luminescence chronologies for improved reconstructions of Australian megafaunal extinctions. The causes of megafaunal extinction in Australia continue to be fiercely debated owing to chronological gaps in the palaeontological record, poorly constrained palaeoenvironmental histories and limited data on long-term faunal responses to climate change prior to human arrival. This project will utilise and advance new luminescence dating methods to provide unpara ....Trying times: Millennial to million year luminescence chronologies for improved reconstructions of Australian megafaunal extinctions. The causes of megafaunal extinction in Australia continue to be fiercely debated owing to chronological gaps in the palaeontological record, poorly constrained palaeoenvironmental histories and limited data on long-term faunal responses to climate change prior to human arrival. This project will utilise and advance new luminescence dating methods to provide unparalleled reconstructions of faunal turnover and environmental change over millennial to million year timescales. The chronologies generated through this work will provide a crucial new perspective on the ongoing megafaunal debate and will be used to test key assumptions underpinning anthropogenic- and climate-driven extinction hypotheses on local, regional and continental scales.Read moreRead less
Prospects for quality work and gender equality in frontline care work. Despite policy concerns about unmet demand for paid care, frontline care workers generally have poorer conditions than workers in other feminised sectors. This project will investigate the regulatory options to improve the quality of care work to build Australian expertise and knowledge about the links between job quality and quality of care services.