Range dynamics and demographics of spatially structured populations under global change. Why are particular species present in some locations, but not others? This is a simple, fundamental ecological question, yet surprisingly, our answers on this point remain far from complete. Using an integrated, systems-based approach, we will determine the interplay between: (i) birth, death and movement rates, (ii) species interactions, and (iii) the constraints of the physical environment (temperature, ra ....Range dynamics and demographics of spatially structured populations under global change. Why are particular species present in some locations, but not others? This is a simple, fundamental ecological question, yet surprisingly, our answers on this point remain far from complete. Using an integrated, systems-based approach, we will determine the interplay between: (i) birth, death and movement rates, (ii) species interactions, and (iii) the constraints of the physical environment (temperature, rainfall, soil type), which determine the limits of species' ranges. Our models will provide Australian conservation managers with a novel, validated toolbox to explore the trade-offs, and synergies, inherent in trying to adapt to climate change and other stressors on biodiversity.Read moreRead less
Understanding climate and harvest induced changes in fish life histories. This project aims to quantify the cumulative impacts of harvest and climate change across marine fishes and ecosystems. The project expects to generate new knowledge in this area by coupling the rich biological information archived in fish ear bones, with targeted multi-generation experiments and predictive modelling. Expected outcomes include fundamental insights into how human-induced environmental change affects fish gr ....Understanding climate and harvest induced changes in fish life histories. This project aims to quantify the cumulative impacts of harvest and climate change across marine fishes and ecosystems. The project expects to generate new knowledge in this area by coupling the rich biological information archived in fish ear bones, with targeted multi-generation experiments and predictive modelling. Expected outcomes include fundamental insights into how human-induced environmental change affects fish growth and maturation, and a subsequent critical evaluation of the sensitivity of fisheries models to trends in these life-history traits. This should provide significant benefits to fisheries and ecosystem management, ensuring they remain productive and resilient in a time of rapid environmental change.Read moreRead less
Transitions between modes of sex-determination in a changing world. Sex-determination controls the largest variation within animals—the division into males and females. While the different systems of sex-determination—involving genetic or environmental control—are fairly well understood, transitions between these systems remain enigmatic in evolutionary biology. This project aims to address this gap by revealing the molecular change required to transition between systems, using one of only two k ....Transitions between modes of sex-determination in a changing world. Sex-determination controls the largest variation within animals—the division into males and females. While the different systems of sex-determination—involving genetic or environmental control—are fairly well understood, transitions between these systems remain enigmatic in evolutionary biology. This project aims to address this gap by revealing the molecular change required to transition between systems, using one of only two known lizard species exhibiting both genetic and temperature control of sex. This knowledge will have important implications for species conservation, facilitating predictions of highly biased sex ratios under climate change, plus potential commercial applications for species where production of one sex is favoured.Read moreRead less
Generalised methods for testing extinction dynamics across geological, near and modern time scales. The record of extinctions over deep time is patchy and incomplete, yet we must use it to determine how major changes in past environments have shaped life on Earth today. The project will develop cutting-edge mathematical tools to determine the patterns of extinctions and speciation over geological time to help predict our uncertain environmental future.
Looking back to see the future: Change in the Lambert Glacier and the East Antarctic Ice Sheet. To develop a comprehensive understanding of the Lambert Glacier of East Antarctica, from the time of the last maximum glaciation to the present, through an integrated and interdisciplinary study combining new field evidence - ice retreat history, geodetic measurements of crustal rebound, satellite measurements of present ice heights and changes therein - with other geological and glaciological data an ....Looking back to see the future: Change in the Lambert Glacier and the East Antarctic Ice Sheet. To develop a comprehensive understanding of the Lambert Glacier of East Antarctica, from the time of the last maximum glaciation to the present, through an integrated and interdisciplinary study combining new field evidence - ice retreat history, geodetic measurements of crustal rebound, satellite measurements of present ice heights and changes therein - with other geological and glaciological data and numerical geophysical modelling advances. The project contributes to the quantitative characterisation of the complex interactions between ice-sheets, oceans and solid earth within the climate system. Outcomes have implications for geophysics, glaciology, geomorphology, climate, and past and future sea-level change.Read moreRead less
Ancient Ecology: Changes in penguin diet over ~30,000 years in Antarctica. This project proposes the first direct study of ancient ecology using a combination of second-generation DNA sequencing and targeted gene recovery. The food web of the Antarctic Ocean is a classic textbook example of energy and nutrient cycling in the marine environment. Although a great deal is known about the current status of this food web, understanding how this complex set of predator / prey relationships have change ....Ancient Ecology: Changes in penguin diet over ~30,000 years in Antarctica. This project proposes the first direct study of ancient ecology using a combination of second-generation DNA sequencing and targeted gene recovery. The food web of the Antarctic Ocean is a classic textbook example of energy and nutrient cycling in the marine environment. Although a great deal is known about the current status of this food web, understanding how this complex set of predator / prey relationships have changed over long periods of time is vital to understanding the nature of the system itself. The project intends to track changes in the diet of Adélie penguins from serially preserved ancient fecal (guano) remains dating back approximately 30,000 years. These remains are known to contain microscopic remnants of penguin prey.Read moreRead less
Demographic consequences of Asian disasters: family dynamics, social capital and migration patterns. This study of the long term demographic consequences of Asian disasters will contribute to development of more effective governmental policies on disaster mitigation, preparedness and reconstruction/recovery, thus assisting to reduce the human and material losses from natural disasters.
Future fisheries under climate change: the missing role of zooplankton. This project aims to develop the first global ecosystem model with a more realistic representation of zooplankton. Fish are the main source of protein for 3 billion people, yet fish catches are declining. Current models of future fish biomass under climate change do not consider the complex role that zooplankton play in transferring energy from phytoplankton to fish. By resolving the link between phytoplankton and fish, this ....Future fisheries under climate change: the missing role of zooplankton. This project aims to develop the first global ecosystem model with a more realistic representation of zooplankton. Fish are the main source of protein for 3 billion people, yet fish catches are declining. Current models of future fish biomass under climate change do not consider the complex role that zooplankton play in transferring energy from phytoplankton to fish. By resolving the link between phytoplankton and fish, this project will vastly improve estimates of future global fisheries production and regional variation. Such knowledge is vital for future food security in Australia and globally, and also to understand the role of zooplankton in carbon export in the ocean.Read moreRead less
Unraveling ocean mixing and air-sea forcing along the Indo-Pacific exchange. This project aims to collect unprecedented observations and develop high resolution model simulations to examine changes in the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) north of Australia. This project expects to develop new knowledge of ocean-atmosphere interactions along the path of the ITF from the Pacific to the Indian Ocean, which are the powerhouse that drives changes in winds and rainfall around Australia and the entire Indo ....Unraveling ocean mixing and air-sea forcing along the Indo-Pacific exchange. This project aims to collect unprecedented observations and develop high resolution model simulations to examine changes in the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) north of Australia. This project expects to develop new knowledge of ocean-atmosphere interactions along the path of the ITF from the Pacific to the Indian Ocean, which are the powerhouse that drives changes in winds and rainfall around Australia and the entire Indo-Pacific region. Expected outcomes include a 1000-fold increase in the observations of mixing in the Indonesian seas and new understanding of the ocean-atmosphere processes that control water property change along the ITF. This should lead to strong improvement in the skill of climate forecast models in the Australian region.Read moreRead less
Understanding spread in sea level rise projections. This project aims to investigate changes in water properties and ocean circulation mechanisms leading to intermodel spread in sea-level projections. Sea-level rise projections for this 21st century largely disagree in magnitude and spatial changes between climate models, particularly in hotspots. The expected outcomes will contribute towards more rigorous constraints on the likelihood of future warming and sea-level rise projections, and are al ....Understanding spread in sea level rise projections. This project aims to investigate changes in water properties and ocean circulation mechanisms leading to intermodel spread in sea-level projections. Sea-level rise projections for this 21st century largely disagree in magnitude and spatial changes between climate models, particularly in hotspots. The expected outcomes will contribute towards more rigorous constraints on the likelihood of future warming and sea-level rise projections, and are aligned with scientific deliverables required to address key questions in support of Australia’s climate change policy. They are also aligned with international scientific deliverables in support of the World Climate Research Programme Grand Challenge on Regional Sea Level Change and Coastal Impacts.Read moreRead less