Developing group-based elicitation methods to improve decision making. This project aims to develop an elicitation methodology enabling multiple members of a team to contribute to the same technical problem - enabling expertise to be accurately combined while avoiding group and individual sources of bias. Good elicitation methods minimise bias in estimates and forecasts - which otherwise erode value and lead to sub-optimal decision making. Existing methods, however, ignore group structures; that ....Developing group-based elicitation methods to improve decision making. This project aims to develop an elicitation methodology enabling multiple members of a team to contribute to the same technical problem - enabling expertise to be accurately combined while avoiding group and individual sources of bias. Good elicitation methods minimise bias in estimates and forecasts - which otherwise erode value and lead to sub-optimal decision making. Existing methods, however, ignore group structures; that is that decisions made by, or on, the advice of teams have different characteristics than individual decisions and often preclude the use of methods designed to limit individuals' biases. By encoding the method into a computerised tool the project will assist public and private sector enterprises to improve group decision making.Read moreRead less
Understanding The Experience Of Making Decisions For Persons With Dementia And Their Carers
Funder
National Health and Medical Research Council
Funding Amount
$71,110.00
Summary
This project aims to explore concepts of value, meaning, and experience of the diagnosis amongst sufferers of dementia through discussion of their approach to making care decisions, and reflection on how this dialogue has been conducted with others. These concepts will be assessed from the perspective of diagnosed sufferers, their primary carers and their diagnosing doctors.
Special Research Initiatives - Grant ID: SR0354744
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$20,000.00
Summary
Improving Australia's Data Mining and Knowledge Discovery Research. The network will bring together over 50 active researchers in data mining and knowledge discovery to enhance and better coordinate Australia's impressive research performance in these dual disciplines. Specifically, the network will (a) facilitate communication and collaboration between researchers, (b) fund or underwrite opportunities for international collaboration, (c) run a number of specialist workshops and symposia and (d ....Improving Australia's Data Mining and Knowledge Discovery Research. The network will bring together over 50 active researchers in data mining and knowledge discovery to enhance and better coordinate Australia's impressive research performance in these dual disciplines. Specifically, the network will (a) facilitate communication and collaboration between researchers, (b) fund or underwrite opportunities for international collaboration, (c) run a number of specialist workshops and symposia and (d) establish a national annual conference.Read moreRead less
Learning and choosing in a complex world. How do people make choices in a complex world? Making good choices requires expertise, but people must often forego rewards in order to acquire this knowledge. This is the essence of an "explore-exploit dilemma": to maximise rewards across a long time frame, people must take the time to explore and learn now. Empirically, this project aims to unify much of the existing psychological literature and extend it to cover richer, more complex problems. Theoret ....Learning and choosing in a complex world. How do people make choices in a complex world? Making good choices requires expertise, but people must often forego rewards in order to acquire this knowledge. This is the essence of an "explore-exploit dilemma": to maximise rewards across a long time frame, people must take the time to explore and learn now. Empirically, this project aims to unify much of the existing psychological literature and extend it to cover richer, more complex problems. Theoretically, the project aims to use tools from machine learning to compare human decision making to optimal planning models.Read moreRead less
Immersive Technologies for Rapid Metallic Tank Inspection and Repairs. Metal tank silos house some of the most dangerous chemicals, which erode the internal structure of the tank over time. It is critical to check the integrity of the tank to prevent disasters from occurring. NDE solutions uses a rapid motion scanner (RMS) to scan the interior surface of the container while it is still full of its storage material. It is the aim of this project to use Augmented Reality, to overlay the scan provi ....Immersive Technologies for Rapid Metallic Tank Inspection and Repairs. Metal tank silos house some of the most dangerous chemicals, which erode the internal structure of the tank over time. It is critical to check the integrity of the tank to prevent disasters from occurring. NDE solutions uses a rapid motion scanner (RMS) to scan the interior surface of the container while it is still full of its storage material. It is the aim of this project to use Augmented Reality, to overlay the scan provided by the RMS, onto the worker's view of the tank, control the robot via. hand gestures, and facilitate remote training/guidance. The result will allow for inspection workers to quickly and accurately the location of critical failures, without performing the hazardous procedures of internal tank inspection. Read moreRead less
Methodology for assessing the vulnerability of multimodal transport networks and developing remedial measures to safeguard network performance. When transport networks fail, the effects on people and the economy can be devastating. The consequences for Hobart of the 1975 Tasman Bridge collapse provide a prime example. Failure may also result from extreme weather and natural disasters, traffic congestion and incidents, commercial failure, human error, or malevolence (such as sabotage). This proje ....Methodology for assessing the vulnerability of multimodal transport networks and developing remedial measures to safeguard network performance. When transport networks fail, the effects on people and the economy can be devastating. The consequences for Hobart of the 1975 Tasman Bridge collapse provide a prime example. Failure may also result from extreme weather and natural disasters, traffic congestion and incidents, commercial failure, human error, or malevolence (such as sabotage). This project will develop a methodology for auditing a transport network to identify where infrastructure failure will have the worst consequences for movement of people and goods. The research will provide tools for planners to determine critical network locations, and devise strategies and remedial measures to safeguard network performance.Read moreRead less
Early Career Industry Fellowships - Grant ID: IE230100380
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$390,574.00
Summary
Enhancing comprehension of forensic science in the justice system. Failures to effectively communicate the accuracy and reliability of forensic evidence to courts can lead to unreliable convictions and miscarriages of justice. This project aims to understand how best to distil complex information about error and uncertainty in forensic expert opinion evidence for enhanced comprehension of forensic science in the justice system. Outcomes include evidence-based strategies for communicating error a ....Enhancing comprehension of forensic science in the justice system. Failures to effectively communicate the accuracy and reliability of forensic evidence to courts can lead to unreliable convictions and miscarriages of justice. This project aims to understand how best to distil complex information about error and uncertainty in forensic expert opinion evidence for enhanced comprehension of forensic science in the justice system. Outcomes include evidence-based strategies for communicating error and uncertainty in forensic science and an accessible online dashboard for visualising known error rates in forensic disciplines. The knowledge gained from the project will help forensic experts to calibrate how they present their conclusions to courts for improved comprehension and evaluation of forensic evidence.Read moreRead less
Expecting the unexpected: how people prioritise predictability. This project aims to investigate how people represent and use information about unpredictability in their environment. Seeing too much predictability is problematic, but seeing too little can also be a problem, for example inappropriate "learned helplessness" can occur, whereby people feel disempowered because the world is seen as random. Recent findings demonstrated a bias in fundamental learning that may maintain these inappropria ....Expecting the unexpected: how people prioritise predictability. This project aims to investigate how people represent and use information about unpredictability in their environment. Seeing too much predictability is problematic, but seeing too little can also be a problem, for example inappropriate "learned helplessness" can occur, whereby people feel disempowered because the world is seen as random. Recent findings demonstrated a bias in fundamental learning that may maintain these inappropriate beliefs about unpredictability. This bias is not anticipated by formal theories of learning. The project will investigate how this bias is brought about by first formalising a novel theory of fundamental learning and then systematically testing its assumptions.Read moreRead less
Towards an integrated model of reasoning and reasoning development. This project aims to identify the core cognitive processes that underlie different forms of reasoning and how they develop. The project intends to use a signal detection framework to derive detailed computational models of reasoning which can then be tested through Bayesian computational modelling as well as the first systematic investigation of developmental change in reasoning processes. Expected outcomes include a more princi ....Towards an integrated model of reasoning and reasoning development. This project aims to identify the core cognitive processes that underlie different forms of reasoning and how they develop. The project intends to use a signal detection framework to derive detailed computational models of reasoning which can then be tested through Bayesian computational modelling as well as the first systematic investigation of developmental change in reasoning processes. Expected outcomes include a more principled and comprehensive computational model of reasoning in both adults and children. The project should provide significant benefits by helping to resolve long-standing debates about how humans reason complex arguments relevant to everyday lives and guide development of more effective methods for teaching reasoning.Read moreRead less
Discovery Early Career Researcher Award - Grant ID: DE150100667
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$328,000.00
Summary
How “known unknowns” become known: How do people encode unpredictability? As Donald Rumsfeld noted, there are 'known unknowns’. That is to say, people are seemingly capable of learning that some things cannot be reliably predicted. This learning underpins decisions from the trivial (whether to pack a jacket) to the life-defining (whom to marry). An aberrant form of this learning may also underlie mental health disorders. Yet the mechanisms of such learning have been largely overlooked by cogniti ....How “known unknowns” become known: How do people encode unpredictability? As Donald Rumsfeld noted, there are 'known unknowns’. That is to say, people are seemingly capable of learning that some things cannot be reliably predicted. This learning underpins decisions from the trivial (whether to pack a jacket) to the life-defining (whom to marry). An aberrant form of this learning may also underlie mental health disorders. Yet the mechanisms of such learning have been largely overlooked by cognitive scientists and thus are poorly understood. The project, which is based on significant pilot data, aims to examine when and how people learn about unpredictability, and what the cognitive, memorial, neural and affective consequences of this learning are.Read moreRead less