Using Advances in Bayesian Statistics to Estimate Australian Rainfall Variations in a Climate Change World. Modelling changes to rainfall patterns answers many important questions about changes in Australia's climate. This is essential to protecting our biodiversity and ensuring Australia's environmental sustainability. The project will address such issues as the extent to which the entire distribution of daily rainfall has changed over time, which areas of Australia have been most affected by t ....Using Advances in Bayesian Statistics to Estimate Australian Rainfall Variations in a Climate Change World. Modelling changes to rainfall patterns answers many important questions about changes in Australia's climate. This is essential to protecting our biodiversity and ensuring Australia's environmental sustainability. The project will address such issues as the extent to which the entire distribution of daily rainfall has changed over time, which areas of Australia have been most affected by this change and to what extent are these changes related to global climate indices. The latest advances in Bayesian statistics will be used to introduce flexibility and complexity into the model.Read moreRead less
Understanding the effect of climate change on runoff variability and water resource systems performance. This project aims to assess the impacts of climate changes on annual runoff variability. Understanding variability of annual runoff is important in managing water resources, in catchment and stream management, and to researchers in hydrology, stream ecology and fluvial geomorphology. Expected outcomes from this research are an estimate of impact on the variability of annual runoff from futu ....Understanding the effect of climate change on runoff variability and water resource systems performance. This project aims to assess the impacts of climate changes on annual runoff variability. Understanding variability of annual runoff is important in managing water resources, in catchment and stream management, and to researchers in hydrology, stream ecology and fluvial geomorphology. Expected outcomes from this research are an estimate of impact on the variability of annual runoff from future climate change, improvement in understanding the processes that operate on the variability of annual runoff, and an assessment of the performance of water resource systems under a changing climate.Read moreRead less
Complexity in climate impact assessment: a methodology to address extremes. It is something of a truism that the events and states of the changing environment that affect society tend to fall in the extremes. My goal is to develop a model-based methodology to characterize the extremes that are not usually predicted by climate models. Key extremes of importance to stakeholders in Australia and around the world include coastal flooding and fire. These events, in the context of regional climate var ....Complexity in climate impact assessment: a methodology to address extremes. It is something of a truism that the events and states of the changing environment that affect society tend to fall in the extremes. My goal is to develop a model-based methodology to characterize the extremes that are not usually predicted by climate models. Key extremes of importance to stakeholders in Australia and around the world include coastal flooding and fire. These events, in the context of regional climate variation, will act as test cases for the methodology. From this work, the likelihood of policy-relevant events in the future can be evaluated, with a robust assessment of the uncertainty.Read moreRead less
Linkage Infrastructure, Equipment And Facilities - Grant ID: LE0668400
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$100,000.00
Summary
A high-throughput stable isotope ratio mass spectrometer for water resource management and climate change studies. Cave speleothems are highly sensitive to climate and are widely used to investigate past climate variability. Many researchers in Australia are now employing speleothems to find out more about the long-term behaviour of the Australian climate system, especially regarding ENSO. However, progress is inhibited by a lack of appropriate instrumentation capable of meeting the unique deman ....A high-throughput stable isotope ratio mass spectrometer for water resource management and climate change studies. Cave speleothems are highly sensitive to climate and are widely used to investigate past climate variability. Many researchers in Australia are now employing speleothems to find out more about the long-term behaviour of the Australian climate system, especially regarding ENSO. However, progress is inhibited by a lack of appropriate instrumentation capable of meeting the unique demands of speleothem research. Our new mass spectrometer will provide precise, rapid and low-cost isotope analyses of speleothem samples, and in doing so generate exciting and important palaeoclimate data, particularly in the area of pre-instrumental rainfall histories.Read moreRead less
Linkage Infrastructure, Equipment And Facilities - Grant ID: LE100100041
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$100,000.00
Summary
A high-resolution isotope facility for low cost analysis of water, plant, and soil/sediment samples to understand environmental change. The most significant environmental challenges facing Australia include ensuring sustainable management of our water resources and conservation of both terrestrial and marine biodiversity, particularly in the face of our changing climate and land-use. The new instruments will accelerate progress across a number of projects aimed at understanding the developme ....A high-resolution isotope facility for low cost analysis of water, plant, and soil/sediment samples to understand environmental change. The most significant environmental challenges facing Australia include ensuring sustainable management of our water resources and conservation of both terrestrial and marine biodiversity, particularly in the face of our changing climate and land-use. The new instruments will accelerate progress across a number of projects aimed at understanding the development of groundwater resources, the relative dependency of ecosystems on groundwater versus soil and surface water, and an assessment of the likely impacts of altered hydrology, especially dewatering and salinisation, on ecosystems. In addition, they will also be used to extend our knowledge of climate variability in the recent past and increase understanding of critical marine resources.Read moreRead less
Improving understanding of climate change and its impacts in Australia through detection and attribution of climate change. This research will quantify the contribution to Australian regional climate change due to greenhouse gases, which will assist policymakers in reaching decisions about policies on emission reductions or adaptation to greenhouse climate change. Improved estimates of uncertainties in future regional climate changes due to increasing greenhouse gases will allow better quantifi ....Improving understanding of climate change and its impacts in Australia through detection and attribution of climate change. This research will quantify the contribution to Australian regional climate change due to greenhouse gases, which will assist policymakers in reaching decisions about policies on emission reductions or adaptation to greenhouse climate change. Improved estimates of uncertainties in future regional climate changes due to increasing greenhouse gases will allow better quantification of their likely impacts, estimation of the costs or maximising any benefits from regional climate changes. Through collaboration with the Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO, this research enhances Australia's capabilities in diagnostic analysis of climate variability and change, and aids the development and evaluation of new Australian climate models. Read moreRead less
Improving Projections of Regional Climate Change for Australia Using Detection and Attribution Studies. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concluded in 2001 that "most of the observed warming over the last 50 years is likely to have been due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations" and that "anthropogenic climate change will persist for many centuries". This project will reduce uncertainties in projections of future climate change for Australia. We will compare model-simulate ....Improving Projections of Regional Climate Change for Australia Using Detection and Attribution Studies. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concluded in 2001 that "most of the observed warming over the last 50 years is likely to have been due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations" and that "anthropogenic climate change will persist for many centuries". This project will reduce uncertainties in projections of future climate change for Australia. We will compare model-simulated climate changes during the twentieth century with observed changes globally and in the Australian region. These comparisons will be used with statistical modelling to estimate probability distributions for future changes in Australian climate.Read moreRead less
Reengineering a dynamic vegetation model to explore the stability of Australian terrestrial carbon. Overseas models do not represent Australian biophysical processes well: our flora and fauna are unique and our soils are old and nutrient poor. In contrast, the National Carbon Accounting System (NCAS) is a world-class framework for estimating current carbon processes. By building NCAS expertise into an overseas model of soil and vegetation processes we can develop the capacity to increase our con ....Reengineering a dynamic vegetation model to explore the stability of Australian terrestrial carbon. Overseas models do not represent Australian biophysical processes well: our flora and fauna are unique and our soils are old and nutrient poor. In contrast, the National Carbon Accounting System (NCAS) is a world-class framework for estimating current carbon processes. By building NCAS expertise into an overseas model of soil and vegetation processes we can develop the capacity to increase our confidence in future projections of carbon and vegetation change. Our proposal, linking Universities, CSIRO and the Australian Greenhouse Office establishes a team that is internationally competitive. It will enhance local expertise and local model development to ensure national policy development is underpinned by world-class science.Read moreRead less
Rainfall over the Maritime Continent and Northern Australia. Australia's proximity to the tropics results in major influences, both direct and indirect, of tropical weather and climate on society as a whole. Tropical convection is key to all those influences. The prediction of the many natural hazards related to convection as well as a projection of the influence and strength of these hazards under climate change is a matter of high national priority. Through an improved understanding of convect ....Rainfall over the Maritime Continent and Northern Australia. Australia's proximity to the tropics results in major influences, both direct and indirect, of tropical weather and climate on society as a whole. Tropical convection is key to all those influences. The prediction of the many natural hazards related to convection as well as a projection of the influence and strength of these hazards under climate change is a matter of high national priority. Through an improved understanding of convection over tropical Australia and in its vicinity, the proposed research will improve our predictive tools and capabilities, thereby making a major contribution to decision-making in an environmentally sustainable Australia.Read moreRead less
Storm activity in the Arctic and implications for rapid climate change in polar regions. Australia's weather and climate is influenced in a myriad of ways by Antarctica and its environs. The complex manners in which weather systems interact with polar processes are fundamental in understanding these links. The dramatic changes which the Arctic has undergone in recent years present a very valuable environmental framework for understanding how the complex polar weather - climate connections change ....Storm activity in the Arctic and implications for rapid climate change in polar regions. Australia's weather and climate is influenced in a myriad of ways by Antarctica and its environs. The complex manners in which weather systems interact with polar processes are fundamental in understanding these links. The dramatic changes which the Arctic has undergone in recent years present a very valuable environmental framework for understanding how the complex polar weather - climate connections change during a period of rapid change. This is of great national and community benefit in that it will lead to a fuller understanding of the polar regions, and present a broader context in which precipitation and other changes over southern Australia can be understood.Read moreRead less