Novel statistical analysis for traffic modelling. This collaborative research with Queensland Main Roads aims to develop and apply novel statistical modelling techniques which improve on the current statistical methods used for transport modelling. The research outcomes will provide a high level of accuracy in terms of predictions for trips leading to better use of expensive survey data. Predictions will be incorporated into transport models. Such model will be used for improving decisions i ....Novel statistical analysis for traffic modelling. This collaborative research with Queensland Main Roads aims to develop and apply novel statistical modelling techniques which improve on the current statistical methods used for transport modelling. The research outcomes will provide a high level of accuracy in terms of predictions for trips leading to better use of expensive survey data. Predictions will be incorporated into transport models. Such model will be used for improving decisions involving multi billion dollar transport infrastructure investment and applied to South East Queensland. The methods can be extended to transport models for other large conurbations in Australia. Outcomes include improved transport systems with economic benefits for business and the community. Read moreRead less
A new perturbation method for solving singular operator equations with applications to complex systems. This project will develop new methods for analysis of web-based search routines such as Google PageRank, a new algorithm for optimal estimation of random signals, more accurate error analysis in the approximate solution of singular systems of equations and enhanced understanding of models for the simulated management of urban stormwater. The project will involve collaboration between two Aus ....A new perturbation method for solving singular operator equations with applications to complex systems. This project will develop new methods for analysis of web-based search routines such as Google PageRank, a new algorithm for optimal estimation of random signals, more accurate error analysis in the approximate solution of singular systems of equations and enhanced understanding of models for the simulated management of urban stormwater. The project will involve collaboration between two Australian universities and a leading European Research Institute. It will provide employment and vital training for two postdoctoral Research fellows and research projects for three postgraduate students and two honours students.Read moreRead less
Boundary Crossing Analysis for Random Processes with Applications to Risk Management. Effective management of environmental, financial and superannuation investment risks is vitally important for Australia. Results of the project will add to the theoretical foundations of risk management and provide new computational tools for specialists working in the areas of financial engineering, insurance, superannuation funds. These tools will assist in improving risk profile evaluation and developing new ....Boundary Crossing Analysis for Random Processes with Applications to Risk Management. Effective management of environmental, financial and superannuation investment risks is vitally important for Australia. Results of the project will add to the theoretical foundations of risk management and provide new computational tools for specialists working in the areas of financial engineering, insurance, superannuation funds. These tools will assist in improving risk profile evaluation and developing new statistical control charts for security monitoring of epidemics, networks intrusions and other potentially dangerous changes. The research will also give Australia a competitive advantage in the area of education related to stochastic processes, mathematical finance, control theory and their applications.Read moreRead less
Stochastic analysis and the development and application of financial risk processes. Ensuring the stability of Australia's financial system requires an understanding of the complex financial instruments, strategies and technologies that have evolved in recent years. A strong well-integrated research effort in stochastic analysis with particular application to financial markets is fundamental for measuring and managing risk, to protect and preserve a well functioning system, and to inform policy ....Stochastic analysis and the development and application of financial risk processes. Ensuring the stability of Australia's financial system requires an understanding of the complex financial instruments, strategies and technologies that have evolved in recent years. A strong well-integrated research effort in stochastic analysis with particular application to financial markets is fundamental for measuring and managing risk, to protect and preserve a well functioning system, and to inform policy debate on financial strategies and insurance liabilities.
These challenges are global and require extensive international research collaboration and interaction. The present project will enhance Australia's contributions in this area and facilitate its global impact more than is possible through individual efforts.Read moreRead less
From Universal Induction to Intelligent Systems. The dream of creating artificial devices that (out)reach human intelligence is an old one. What makes this challenge so interesting? A solution would have enormous implications for our society, and there are arguments that the AI problem might be solved within a couple of decades. Specialized intelligent systems are actually already pervasive (finger print, handwriting, speech, and face recognition; spam filtering; search engines; computer chess; ....From Universal Induction to Intelligent Systems. The dream of creating artificial devices that (out)reach human intelligence is an old one. What makes this challenge so interesting? A solution would have enormous implications for our society, and there are arguments that the AI problem might be solved within a couple of decades. Specialized intelligent systems are actually already pervasive (finger print, handwriting, speech, and face recognition; spam filtering; search engines; computer chess; robots). This decade the first presumably complete mathematical theory of AI has been proposed. By working out this theory, this project will significantly contribute to the foundations of inductive inference and AI, and ultimately lead to smarter software and intelligent systems.Read moreRead less
Making the most of remotely sensed data: Bayesian spatio-temporal models for enhanced natural resource management and design. This research will provide methods for cost-efficient spatio-temporal data collection and analysis, with increased capacity for better decision-making about managing Australia’s natural resources. Through the Linkage partners’ networks, these benefits will be disseminated throughout regional bodies, government agencies and research groups across and outside Australia. The ....Making the most of remotely sensed data: Bayesian spatio-temporal models for enhanced natural resource management and design. This research will provide methods for cost-efficient spatio-temporal data collection and analysis, with increased capacity for better decision-making about managing Australia’s natural resources. Through the Linkage partners’ networks, these benefits will be disseminated throughout regional bodies, government agencies and research groups across and outside Australia. The statistical techniques derived in this project will enhance Australia’s capability in the national priority area of mathematical sciences, and will contribute to knowledge in a wide range of disciplines including natural resources, medicine and genetics. Read moreRead less
Towards automated and intelligent processing of web-based information. The successful outcome of this project will enhance Australia's research reputation in an important, practical area of ICT, will contribute to emerging Web standards, will produce frontier technology that will eventually be of benefit to Australian industry, and will train several postgraduate students.
Rule-based reasoning systems for complex and dynamic ontologies. The successful outcome of this project will enhance Australia's research reputation in an important, practical area of ICT, will contribute to emerging Web technologies that will eventually be of benefit to Australian industry, and will train several postgraduate students.
Censored Regression Techniques for Credit Scoring. This project will apply censored regression techniques to a loans database from the industry partner, the ANZ bank. We will accurately estimate the actual time to loan repayment, rather than simply the risk of default. In a novel approach for credit scoring we will build a model using current, right-censored, rather than historic data, incorporating loans that are not yet repaid but are underway and clearly have a length of loan longer than obse ....Censored Regression Techniques for Credit Scoring. This project will apply censored regression techniques to a loans database from the industry partner, the ANZ bank. We will accurately estimate the actual time to loan repayment, rather than simply the risk of default. In a novel approach for credit scoring we will build a model using current, right-censored, rather than historic data, incorporating loans that are not yet repaid but are underway and clearly have a length of loan longer than observed. This approach has the immense advantage of being able to reflect contemporary borrowing patterns in the model, rather than relying on historic trends.
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Multifractal models in finance via the crossing tree. High level mathematical modelling is an established part of the modern finance industry, in particular the Black-Scholes option pricing formula is now an indispensable financial tool.
To remain competitive the Australian financial sector needs to keep up with developments in mathematical finance, which is only possible if the Australian academic community remains active in the field.
The work on multifractal modelling proposed here is innov ....Multifractal models in finance via the crossing tree. High level mathematical modelling is an established part of the modern finance industry, in particular the Black-Scholes option pricing formula is now an indispensable financial tool.
To remain competitive the Australian financial sector needs to keep up with developments in mathematical finance, which is only possible if the Australian academic community remains active in the field.
The work on multifractal modelling proposed here is innovative both in its theoretical aspects and its applied methodology, and will ensure that Australian research remains at the cutting edge of this highly competitive and fast moving field.Read moreRead less