Mapping climate change vulnerability of older Australians to extreme heat. Exposure to extreme heat is associated with negative health outcomes and has been recognized as a global health challenge in the context of climate change, especially among older people. While the direct heat-related mortality for older people reached a record high of 345,000 deaths worldwide in 2019, which was 80.6% higher than the 2000–05 average, there has been no detailed study in Australia. This project is to have a ....Mapping climate change vulnerability of older Australians to extreme heat. Exposure to extreme heat is associated with negative health outcomes and has been recognized as a global health challenge in the context of climate change, especially among older people. While the direct heat-related mortality for older people reached a record high of 345,000 deaths worldwide in 2019, which was 80.6% higher than the 2000–05 average, there has been no detailed study in Australia. This project is to have a national picture of the impact of extreme heat on the health outcomes of older people and associated healthcare costs at Statistical Area level 3 (SA3), to inform the design and implementation of tailored interventions to minimize the health risk and costs from extreme heat to protect the health of this vulnerable group. Read moreRead less
Predicting adaptive responses to climate change in Australian native bees. This project aims to understand how insects will adapt to climate change by examining a largely overlooked but economically important group of species: Australian native bees. Native bees are important pollinators of both crops and native plants, but their sensitivity to changes in climate are unknown. Expected outcomes include new knowledge of the resilience of native bees to climate change, and new effective tools for p ....Predicting adaptive responses to climate change in Australian native bees. This project aims to understand how insects will adapt to climate change by examining a largely overlooked but economically important group of species: Australian native bees. Native bees are important pollinators of both crops and native plants, but their sensitivity to changes in climate are unknown. Expected outcomes include new knowledge of the resilience of native bees to climate change, and new effective tools for predicting climate change resilience that can be applied to many species. The intended benefits include increasing our understanding of the potential for native bees to act as future pollinators in Australia’s natural and agro-ecosystems, and guide policy and management decisions to better protect and conserve our bee fauna.Read moreRead less
Fitness and evolutionary consequences of developmental plasticity. This project aims to develop a framework for accurately predicting species responses to global change. Phenotypic plasticity will act as a rapid-response mechanism, enabling organisms to survive climatic shifts in the first instance. Understanding how and when plasticity underpins species’ persistence under climate change is lacking. This project aims to integrate developmental responses to environmental change with evolutionary ....Fitness and evolutionary consequences of developmental plasticity. This project aims to develop a framework for accurately predicting species responses to global change. Phenotypic plasticity will act as a rapid-response mechanism, enabling organisms to survive climatic shifts in the first instance. Understanding how and when plasticity underpins species’ persistence under climate change is lacking. This project aims to integrate developmental responses to environmental change with evolutionary adaptation and population persistence in a spatially explicit context. The intended outcome is a powerful and general tool for predicting the impact of environmental change on the distribution and abundance of organisms. Benefits include improved conservation outcomes and better control of pest/disease vectors.Read moreRead less
Improving Projections of Regional Climate Change for Australia Using Detection and Attribution Studies. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concluded in 2001 that "most of the observed warming over the last 50 years is likely to have been due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations" and that "anthropogenic climate change will persist for many centuries". This project will reduce uncertainties in projections of future climate change for Australia. We will compare model-simulate ....Improving Projections of Regional Climate Change for Australia Using Detection and Attribution Studies. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concluded in 2001 that "most of the observed warming over the last 50 years is likely to have been due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations" and that "anthropogenic climate change will persist for many centuries". This project will reduce uncertainties in projections of future climate change for Australia. We will compare model-simulated climate changes during the twentieth century with observed changes globally and in the Australian region. These comparisons will be used with statistical modelling to estimate probability distributions for future changes in Australian climate.Read moreRead less
Evolutionary impacts of gene interactions in a rapidly changing world. This project aims to understand how gene interactions impact evolution in our warming marine environments. The role of gene interactions is controversial because they are assumed to have little effect on genetic variation for fitness in natural populations. Yet new data show that this effect can be substantial and is enhanced by heat stress, explaining most of the genetic variation available for evolution under stressful cond ....Evolutionary impacts of gene interactions in a rapidly changing world. This project aims to understand how gene interactions impact evolution in our warming marine environments. The role of gene interactions is controversial because they are assumed to have little effect on genetic variation for fitness in natural populations. Yet new data show that this effect can be substantial and is enhanced by heat stress, explaining most of the genetic variation available for evolution under stressful conditions. The project aims to use quantitative genetics, genomics, and theory to determine the evolutionary impacts on marine populations facing rapid ocean warming in southeast Australia. The outcomes could change how we view gene interactions, and help us to better predict biological responses to environmental change.Read moreRead less
Assimilation of trace atmospheric constituents for climate (ATACC): Linking chemical weather and climate. Changes in atmospheric ozone and carbon dioxide affect many aspects of surface climate from changes in ultraviolet radiation (ozone) to long-term changes in temperature (carbon dioxide). Better mapping of these gases will help us understand, predict and manage these changes. For ozone, it will clarify the link between ozone and surface weather. For carbon dioxide, improved knowledge of the ....Assimilation of trace atmospheric constituents for climate (ATACC): Linking chemical weather and climate. Changes in atmospheric ozone and carbon dioxide affect many aspects of surface climate from changes in ultraviolet radiation (ozone) to long-term changes in temperature (carbon dioxide). Better mapping of these gases will help us understand, predict and manage these changes. For ozone, it will clarify the link between ozone and surface weather. For carbon dioxide, improved knowledge of the impact of tropical deforestation, land clearing and changes in the southern ocean on atmospheric CO2 will support sustainable development in Australia and our region. The project hence addresses the priority goal 'Responding to climate change and variability` under the National Research Priority 'An Environmentally Sustainable Australia`.
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Escalating the arms race: Understanding when and how trees get really tall. Australia's giant Eucalypt trees are an amazing phenomenon and resource; underpinning unique ecosystems, rich in timber, stored carbon, and animal habitat. While tree height generally arises via an evolutionary arms race for light, the race has escalated dramatically in some locations and species. Using a computational framework that simulates adaptation driven by size-structured competition, this project will quantify h ....Escalating the arms race: Understanding when and how trees get really tall. Australia's giant Eucalypt trees are an amazing phenomenon and resource; underpinning unique ecosystems, rich in timber, stored carbon, and animal habitat. While tree height generally arises via an evolutionary arms race for light, the race has escalated dramatically in some locations and species. Using a computational framework that simulates adaptation driven by size-structured competition, this project will quantify how distinct factors-including climate, recruitment, and disturbance-enhance the race for light and can thereby explain the origins of Australia's giant Eucalypt. With calibrated models of species evolution, coupled with targeted fieldwork and big data, this project clarifies key forces shaping present and future vegetation.Read moreRead less
Evolution in tooth and claw: exploring the relationship between the radiation of marsupial herbivores and late Cenozoic climate change. Establishing how animals responded to past environmental changes is essential for understanding the ecology of modern species and managing them in light of contemporary climatic trends. By applying several novel analytical methods this project will unravel the links between the radiation of Australian marsupials and key stages in climatic evolution.
Methane uptake of forest soils. This project will provide a detailed understanding of capacity of soils in Australia to sequester the greenhouse gas methane. It will identify the main factors and processes controlling methane uptake in soils and improve predictive models will allow us to predict methane uptake in the future.
From prediction to action: Responding to rapid ecosystem shifts under climate change. Nobody knows exactly how climate change will affect the ecosystems on which we depend for our own existence, though negative impacts are widely predicted. This project integrates mathematical, economic and ecological approaches to learn about the most effective way to spend limited funds for sustaining ecosystems threatened by climate change.