An integrated mechanistic model of species' responses to environmental change: from individual responses to range shifts and beyond. To effectively adapt to future environmental change, reliable forecasts are needed of how human alterations to climate and habitat will affect species. This project integrates cutting-edge methods in nutritional, physiological and spatial ecology to develop new tools for predicting and understanding how species will respond to environmental change.
Predicting adaptive responses to climate change in Australian native bees. This project aims to understand how insects will adapt to climate change by examining a largely overlooked but economically important group of species: Australian native bees. Native bees are important pollinators of both crops and native plants, but their sensitivity to changes in climate are unknown. Expected outcomes include new knowledge of the resilience of native bees to climate change, and new effective tools for p ....Predicting adaptive responses to climate change in Australian native bees. This project aims to understand how insects will adapt to climate change by examining a largely overlooked but economically important group of species: Australian native bees. Native bees are important pollinators of both crops and native plants, but their sensitivity to changes in climate are unknown. Expected outcomes include new knowledge of the resilience of native bees to climate change, and new effective tools for predicting climate change resilience that can be applied to many species. The intended benefits include increasing our understanding of the potential for native bees to act as future pollinators in Australia’s natural and agro-ecosystems, and guide policy and management decisions to better protect and conserve our bee fauna.Read moreRead less
Improving understanding of climate change and its impacts in Australia through detection and attribution of climate change. This research will quantify the contribution to Australian regional climate change due to greenhouse gases, which will assist policymakers in reaching decisions about policies on emission reductions or adaptation to greenhouse climate change. Improved estimates of uncertainties in future regional climate changes due to increasing greenhouse gases will allow better quantifi ....Improving understanding of climate change and its impacts in Australia through detection and attribution of climate change. This research will quantify the contribution to Australian regional climate change due to greenhouse gases, which will assist policymakers in reaching decisions about policies on emission reductions or adaptation to greenhouse climate change. Improved estimates of uncertainties in future regional climate changes due to increasing greenhouse gases will allow better quantification of their likely impacts, estimation of the costs or maximising any benefits from regional climate changes. Through collaboration with the Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO, this research enhances Australia's capabilities in diagnostic analysis of climate variability and change, and aids the development and evaluation of new Australian climate models. Read moreRead less
Fires, black carbon, greenhouse gas emissions and the carbon balance of southern sclerophyll forests. Ecologically sustainable forest management requires an understanding of the role of fire in the carbon balance of native forests, and in Australia's overall carbon balance. Fires are crucial to both this carbon balance and to the ecology of the forests. This project will help forest managers make decisions about using prescribed fire to manage fuels while at the same time managing carbon. An ....Fires, black carbon, greenhouse gas emissions and the carbon balance of southern sclerophyll forests. Ecologically sustainable forest management requires an understanding of the role of fire in the carbon balance of native forests, and in Australia's overall carbon balance. Fires are crucial to both this carbon balance and to the ecology of the forests. This project will help forest managers make decisions about using prescribed fire to manage fuels while at the same time managing carbon. An aim of management is to identify fire regimes that will optimise the carbon outcome as well as provide protection to life and property. This project will help managers meet that aim by developing a quantitative understanding of how much stable, black carbon (charcoal) is produced and how it affects other soil processes.Read moreRead less
Improving Projections of Regional Climate Change for Australia Using Detection and Attribution Studies. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concluded in 2001 that "most of the observed warming over the last 50 years is likely to have been due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations" and that "anthropogenic climate change will persist for many centuries". This project will reduce uncertainties in projections of future climate change for Australia. We will compare model-simulate ....Improving Projections of Regional Climate Change for Australia Using Detection and Attribution Studies. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concluded in 2001 that "most of the observed warming over the last 50 years is likely to have been due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations" and that "anthropogenic climate change will persist for many centuries". This project will reduce uncertainties in projections of future climate change for Australia. We will compare model-simulated climate changes during the twentieth century with observed changes globally and in the Australian region. These comparisons will be used with statistical modelling to estimate probability distributions for future changes in Australian climate.Read moreRead less
Can evolution rescue marine populations from environmental change? This project aims to test whether rapid evolutionary responses can buffer marine species against the environmental changes impacting Australia’s coastal ecosystems now and in coming years. This project plans to use an innovative experimental evolution framework to test the newly-advanced theory of evolutionary rescue, its goal is to understand whether populations can adapt to new environments fast enough to outpace extinction, an ....Can evolution rescue marine populations from environmental change? This project aims to test whether rapid evolutionary responses can buffer marine species against the environmental changes impacting Australia’s coastal ecosystems now and in coming years. This project plans to use an innovative experimental evolution framework to test the newly-advanced theory of evolutionary rescue, its goal is to understand whether populations can adapt to new environments fast enough to outpace extinction, and how phenotypic plasticity, fluctuating natural selection and biotic interactions influence extinction risk. The intended outcome is to deliver key insights into the intrinsic capacity of our marine biota to withstand the current and near-future challenges that they face, and to inform predictions about population persistence. In doing so, this project should deliver vital information on extinction risk to managers, policy-makers and other stakeholders, and contribute innovative, cutting-edge research in an area of national priority.Read moreRead less
Assimilation of trace atmospheric constituents for climate (ATACC): Linking chemical weather and climate. Changes in atmospheric ozone and carbon dioxide affect many aspects of surface climate from changes in ultraviolet radiation (ozone) to long-term changes in temperature (carbon dioxide). Better mapping of these gases will help us understand, predict and manage these changes. For ozone, it will clarify the link between ozone and surface weather. For carbon dioxide, improved knowledge of the ....Assimilation of trace atmospheric constituents for climate (ATACC): Linking chemical weather and climate. Changes in atmospheric ozone and carbon dioxide affect many aspects of surface climate from changes in ultraviolet radiation (ozone) to long-term changes in temperature (carbon dioxide). Better mapping of these gases will help us understand, predict and manage these changes. For ozone, it will clarify the link between ozone and surface weather. For carbon dioxide, improved knowledge of the impact of tropical deforestation, land clearing and changes in the southern ocean on atmospheric CO2 will support sustainable development in Australia and our region. The project hence addresses the priority goal 'Responding to climate change and variability` under the National Research Priority 'An Environmentally Sustainable Australia`.
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Tracking the molecular dynamics of adaptation with horizontal gene transfer. This project aims to track the dynamics of adaptation with gene exchange by building the first experimental evolution model that can directly observe this process. The acquisition of genes from other strains and species (horizontal gene transfer) frequently underlies bacterial adaptation, but it is unknown how this occurs. This project aims to shift understanding of how microbial populations respond to environmental cha ....Tracking the molecular dynamics of adaptation with horizontal gene transfer. This project aims to track the dynamics of adaptation with gene exchange by building the first experimental evolution model that can directly observe this process. The acquisition of genes from other strains and species (horizontal gene transfer) frequently underlies bacterial adaptation, but it is unknown how this occurs. This project aims to shift understanding of how microbial populations respond to environmental challenges. There are significant benefits to be gained from understanding how microbes adapt in response to climate change and the widespread application of antibiotics, given that microbial populations form intimate associations with humans and sustain all of the world’s ecosystems.Read moreRead less
Evolution in tooth and claw: exploring the relationship between the radiation of marsupial herbivores and late Cenozoic climate change. Establishing how animals responded to past environmental changes is essential for understanding the ecology of modern species and managing them in light of contemporary climatic trends. By applying several novel analytical methods this project will unravel the links between the radiation of Australian marsupials and key stages in climatic evolution.
Reengineering a dynamic vegetation model to explore the stability of Australian terrestrial carbon. Overseas models do not represent Australian biophysical processes well: our flora and fauna are unique and our soils are old and nutrient poor. In contrast, the National Carbon Accounting System (NCAS) is a world-class framework for estimating current carbon processes. By building NCAS expertise into an overseas model of soil and vegetation processes we can develop the capacity to increase our con ....Reengineering a dynamic vegetation model to explore the stability of Australian terrestrial carbon. Overseas models do not represent Australian biophysical processes well: our flora and fauna are unique and our soils are old and nutrient poor. In contrast, the National Carbon Accounting System (NCAS) is a world-class framework for estimating current carbon processes. By building NCAS expertise into an overseas model of soil and vegetation processes we can develop the capacity to increase our confidence in future projections of carbon and vegetation change. Our proposal, linking Universities, CSIRO and the Australian Greenhouse Office establishes a team that is internationally competitive. It will enhance local expertise and local model development to ensure national policy development is underpinned by world-class science.Read moreRead less