Resilience of eucalypts to future droughts. This project aims to examine how resilient Eucalyptus species are to future droughts by combining data synthesis, manipulative experiments and modelling. Climate change is expected to increase the frequency, magnitude and duration of future droughts, with major environmental and socio-economic consequences for Australia. Current predictive capacity is extremely limited: experiments are limited in scale and cannot capture important global change interac ....Resilience of eucalypts to future droughts. This project aims to examine how resilient Eucalyptus species are to future droughts by combining data synthesis, manipulative experiments and modelling. Climate change is expected to increase the frequency, magnitude and duration of future droughts, with major environmental and socio-economic consequences for Australia. Current predictive capacity is extremely limited: experiments are limited in scale and cannot capture important global change interactions, whilst models do not represent the functional characteristics and adaptions of eucalypts. This project will develop a strong evidence- and process-based understanding to quantify the functional behaviour of drought-adapted Eucalyptus species and leverage this insight to make future model projections.Read moreRead less
Are proposed land-based sinks for greenhouse gases resilient to climate change and natural variability? One strategy to reduce the scale of future climate change is to enhance the storage of carbon in vegetation and soils. Evidence suggests carbon stored in vegetation and soils is itself vulnerable to climate change, placing this stored carbon at risk; this project will assess this risk to advise on the reliability of using terrestrial systems as carbon sinks.
Understanding leaf water isotope composition. This project aims to quantify variation in leaf water isotopes and develop mechanistic models for paleoclimatologists and plant scientists to constrain global carbon cycles. Leaf water stable isotopes influence the isotope compositions of atmospheric oxygen, carbon dioxide and water vapour, and impart an evaporative signal on the isotope composition of plant organic material. These isotope signals have been used to constrain global carbon and water c ....Understanding leaf water isotope composition. This project aims to quantify variation in leaf water isotopes and develop mechanistic models for paleoclimatologists and plant scientists to constrain global carbon cycles. Leaf water stable isotopes influence the isotope compositions of atmospheric oxygen, carbon dioxide and water vapour, and impart an evaporative signal on the isotope composition of plant organic material. These isotope signals have been used to constrain global carbon and water cycles and reconstruct past climates. This project aims to quantify variation in leaf water isotopes and develop mechanistic models for use by paleoclimatologists, plant scientists and to constrain global carbon cycles and develop accurate models of leaf water isotopes to reduce uncertainty in climate models.Read moreRead less
Ocean heat content change and its impact on sea level. This project aims to improve projections of possible sea level changes. Sea level rise is among the most significant potential impacts of transient climate change around the world. Poor understanding of the way in which heat is absorbed at the sea surface and distributed by ocean circulation is a leading source of uncertainty in projections of global surface temperature and regional sea level rise by the end of this century. This project aim ....Ocean heat content change and its impact on sea level. This project aims to improve projections of possible sea level changes. Sea level rise is among the most significant potential impacts of transient climate change around the world. Poor understanding of the way in which heat is absorbed at the sea surface and distributed by ocean circulation is a leading source of uncertainty in projections of global surface temperature and regional sea level rise by the end of this century. This project aims to apply novel observational methods, complimented by numerical modelling, to quantify the drivers of recent change. This project expects to transform our ability to predict how ocean temperature and sea level will change in the future.Read moreRead less
The changing relationship between the South Asian and Australian Monsoon in a warming world. The success or failure of the Australian and South Asian Monsoons can mean the difference between prosperity and severe hardship in the affected regions. This project will help to understand the causes of the monsoon variability, both natural and human-induced, and what the future might have in store.
Examining the vulnerability of ocean carbon biogeochemistry in a high CO2 world. Rising CO2 levels in the atmosphere from human activity is changing the biogeochemistry of the ocean, with large potential consequences on future atmospheric CO2. This work will explore these changes and will result in a more complete understanding of how the ocean will either accelerate or delay the increase in atmospheric CO2.
Remote forcing of Pacific Ocean variability and impacts on global climate. Variability in the Pacific Ocean has a profound impact on global climate. Recent unprecedented decadal variability in the Pacific has been linked to global temperature trends and extremes, yet little is known about what drives this variability or its impact on regional climate. This project will combine observations, advanced coupled climate models and ocean-atmosphere dynamical theory to quantify remote drivers of Pacifi ....Remote forcing of Pacific Ocean variability and impacts on global climate. Variability in the Pacific Ocean has a profound impact on global climate. Recent unprecedented decadal variability in the Pacific has been linked to global temperature trends and extremes, yet little is known about what drives this variability or its impact on regional climate. This project will combine observations, advanced coupled climate models and ocean-atmosphere dynamical theory to quantify remote drivers of Pacific Ocean variability on interannual-decadal time-scales. This project aims to enhance our understanding of the modes of variability operating in this region and their impact on global and Australian climate. This will have significant benefits for the many sectors of society reliant on interseasonal-decadal climate prediction.Read moreRead less
Understanding spread in sea level rise projections. This project aims to investigate changes in water properties and ocean circulation mechanisms leading to intermodel spread in sea-level projections. Sea-level rise projections for this 21st century largely disagree in magnitude and spatial changes between climate models, particularly in hotspots. The expected outcomes will contribute towards more rigorous constraints on the likelihood of future warming and sea-level rise projections, and are al ....Understanding spread in sea level rise projections. This project aims to investigate changes in water properties and ocean circulation mechanisms leading to intermodel spread in sea-level projections. Sea-level rise projections for this 21st century largely disagree in magnitude and spatial changes between climate models, particularly in hotspots. The expected outcomes will contribute towards more rigorous constraints on the likelihood of future warming and sea-level rise projections, and are aligned with scientific deliverables required to address key questions in support of Australia’s climate change policy. They are also aligned with international scientific deliverables in support of the World Climate Research Programme Grand Challenge on Regional Sea Level Change and Coastal Impacts.Read moreRead less
Diatom silica production under future ocean conditions, genes to biomes. This project aims to quantify how ocean warming and acidification will alter natural diatom assemblages and silica production rates to predict changes in the cycling and transfer of carbon and silicon in the future ocean. This project expects to generate new knowledge of environmental controls on diatom silicification and their ocean-scale implications by integrating the disciplines of physiology, molecular biology and quan ....Diatom silica production under future ocean conditions, genes to biomes. This project aims to quantify how ocean warming and acidification will alter natural diatom assemblages and silica production rates to predict changes in the cycling and transfer of carbon and silicon in the future ocean. This project expects to generate new knowledge of environmental controls on diatom silicification and their ocean-scale implications by integrating the disciplines of physiology, molecular biology and quantitative modelling. Expected outcomes include essential advancements in future simulations of marine productivity and silicon cycling and a deeper understanding of threats to marine life from climate change. This should provide significant benefits such as improved valuations on the sustainability of ocean ecosystems.Read moreRead less
Keystone microbes and planktonic guilds in Australia's oceans. This project aims to unveil the ocean’s hidden sentinels, “keystone microbes” that underpin precious ecosystem services, and which can be used to monitor and model changes in ocean function. Marine microbes account for 90 per cent of oceanic biomass and every litre of seawater contains ~20,000 different species, but it is not known which species control ocean health and productivity. This project intends to provide definitive evidenc ....Keystone microbes and planktonic guilds in Australia's oceans. This project aims to unveil the ocean’s hidden sentinels, “keystone microbes” that underpin precious ecosystem services, and which can be used to monitor and model changes in ocean function. Marine microbes account for 90 per cent of oceanic biomass and every litre of seawater contains ~20,000 different species, but it is not known which species control ocean health and productivity. This project intends to provide definitive evidence of these keystones’ cellular level biogeochemical and metabolic capacity. Ultimately, this knowledge is expected to predict the resilience of ocean ecosystems and their response to change. The capacity to predict their dynamics will help provide investment clarity and increase healthy outcomes from activities involving human-ocean interactions such as recreation, food production and tourism.Read moreRead less