Drought, El Niño and Climate Change in Queensland over the last 200,000 years: the Lynch's Crater lake record. Lynch's Crater (Queensland) provides the longest, most sensitive terrestrial record of vegetation and climate change in the low altitude tropics. A multidisciplinary approach will exploit the potential of a core collected in 2003 through high-resolution multiproxy (sedimentology, geochemistry, stable and radiogenic isotopes, pollen, charcoal and diatoms) studies. The results will contri ....Drought, El Niño and Climate Change in Queensland over the last 200,000 years: the Lynch's Crater lake record. Lynch's Crater (Queensland) provides the longest, most sensitive terrestrial record of vegetation and climate change in the low altitude tropics. A multidisciplinary approach will exploit the potential of a core collected in 2003 through high-resolution multiproxy (sedimentology, geochemistry, stable and radiogenic isotopes, pollen, charcoal and diatoms) studies. The results will contribute substantially to the resolution of current debates on the role of the tropics in global climate forcing at a variety of temporal scales, including that of the El Niño phenomenon. The reconstruction of temperature and precipitation over the past 200,000 years will improve global climate databases and prediction models.Read moreRead less
Improving understanding of climate change and its impacts in Australia through detection and attribution of climate change. This research will quantify the contribution to Australian regional climate change due to greenhouse gases, which will assist policymakers in reaching decisions about policies on emission reductions or adaptation to greenhouse climate change. Improved estimates of uncertainties in future regional climate changes due to increasing greenhouse gases will allow better quantifi ....Improving understanding of climate change and its impacts in Australia through detection and attribution of climate change. This research will quantify the contribution to Australian regional climate change due to greenhouse gases, which will assist policymakers in reaching decisions about policies on emission reductions or adaptation to greenhouse climate change. Improved estimates of uncertainties in future regional climate changes due to increasing greenhouse gases will allow better quantification of their likely impacts, estimation of the costs or maximising any benefits from regional climate changes. Through collaboration with the Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO, this research enhances Australia's capabilities in diagnostic analysis of climate variability and change, and aids the development and evaluation of new Australian climate models. Read moreRead less
Variability in El Niño frequency and intensity over the past 4000 years. Fossil corals contain a rich archive of past climate variability for tropical oceans which can extend the limited instrumental data and increase our understanding of climate sensitivity. El Niño variations in the Pacific have far-reaching impacts on Australian climate, and this project will reconstruct variations in the past in order to better forecast climate sensitivity in the future. It focuses on Christmas Island whic ....Variability in El Niño frequency and intensity over the past 4000 years. Fossil corals contain a rich archive of past climate variability for tropical oceans which can extend the limited instrumental data and increase our understanding of climate sensitivity. El Niño variations in the Pacific have far-reaching impacts on Australian climate, and this project will reconstruct variations in the past in order to better forecast climate sensitivity in the future. It focuses on Christmas Island which is the optimal site to capture El Niño variability at several different time scales, and will lead to a better understanding of atmospheric and oceanic factors that have caused climate variability.Read moreRead less
Rainfall over the Maritime Continent and Northern Australia. Australia's proximity to the tropics results in major influences, both direct and indirect, of tropical weather and climate on society as a whole. Tropical convection is key to all those influences. The prediction of the many natural hazards related to convection as well as a projection of the influence and strength of these hazards under climate change is a matter of high national priority. Through an improved understanding of convect ....Rainfall over the Maritime Continent and Northern Australia. Australia's proximity to the tropics results in major influences, both direct and indirect, of tropical weather and climate on society as a whole. Tropical convection is key to all those influences. The prediction of the many natural hazards related to convection as well as a projection of the influence and strength of these hazards under climate change is a matter of high national priority. Through an improved understanding of convection over tropical Australia and in its vicinity, the proposed research will improve our predictive tools and capabilities, thereby making a major contribution to decision-making in an environmentally sustainable Australia.Read moreRead less
Improving Projections of Regional Climate Change for Australia Using Detection and Attribution Studies. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concluded in 2001 that "most of the observed warming over the last 50 years is likely to have been due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations" and that "anthropogenic climate change will persist for many centuries". This project will reduce uncertainties in projections of future climate change for Australia. We will compare model-simulate ....Improving Projections of Regional Climate Change for Australia Using Detection and Attribution Studies. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concluded in 2001 that "most of the observed warming over the last 50 years is likely to have been due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations" and that "anthropogenic climate change will persist for many centuries". This project will reduce uncertainties in projections of future climate change for Australia. We will compare model-simulated climate changes during the twentieth century with observed changes globally and in the Australian region. These comparisons will be used with statistical modelling to estimate probability distributions for future changes in Australian climate.Read moreRead less
450 Million year history of plant gas exchange capacity and the role of atmospheric carbon dioxide. Our planet faces an increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide that is unprecedented in human history, but has occurred in ancient times. By studying the relationship between past changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide, plant gas exchange and climate we will gain powerful global insight into future scenarios of continental carbon and water fluxes. This global perspective is essential for Australia to a ....450 Million year history of plant gas exchange capacity and the role of atmospheric carbon dioxide. Our planet faces an increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide that is unprecedented in human history, but has occurred in ancient times. By studying the relationship between past changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide, plant gas exchange and climate we will gain powerful global insight into future scenarios of continental carbon and water fluxes. This global perspective is essential for Australia to assess its vulnerability to global climate change in relation to other nations, thereby informing national planning of landscape resource use, including primary industry, water infrastructure and carbon trading.Read moreRead less
Past and future effects of climate change on the carbon-water balance of plants. Over the coming century, climate change will profoundly impact Australian vegetation via the direct effects of elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) on plants and the indirect effects of CO2-forced changes in rainfall and temperature, with major implications for agricultural production and water resources. This project will address these threats by providing new tools for measuring and predicting vegetation-clim ....Past and future effects of climate change on the carbon-water balance of plants. Over the coming century, climate change will profoundly impact Australian vegetation via the direct effects of elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) on plants and the indirect effects of CO2-forced changes in rainfall and temperature, with major implications for agricultural production and water resources. This project will address these threats by providing new tools for measuring and predicting vegetation-climate feedbacks. It will determine the combined effects of elevated atmospheric CO2 and drought on the productivity of natural and agricultural landscapes, and provide the biophysical framework for developing the next generation of high-yielding, drought tolerant crop varieties for the rapidly approaching greenhouse world.Read moreRead less
New estimation and testing issues in nonlinear time series econometrics. The outcomes of this project will not only complement but also enhance the existing strengths of Australian researchers in the field of econometrics. The outcomes are also expected to help stabilise the national financial market for more accurate forecasts. It is also expected that the outcomes will provide novel models to respond to climate change and variability and to provide accurate warming estimates for improving the ....New estimation and testing issues in nonlinear time series econometrics. The outcomes of this project will not only complement but also enhance the existing strengths of Australian researchers in the field of econometrics. The outcomes are also expected to help stabilise the national financial market for more accurate forecasts. It is also expected that the outcomes will provide novel models to respond to climate change and variability and to provide accurate warming estimates for improving the policy making process.Read moreRead less
Australasian climate reconstruction for the past two millennia. The results generated during this Fellowship will provide a greater understanding of the sensitivity of the Australasian region to the natural range of climatic variability (far beyond that recorded by historical datasets). Focussing on the past two millennia, the applicant will help investigate the timing, rate and magnitude of change, allowing a robust test of whether past changes were in phase with the Northern Hemisphere. The ....Australasian climate reconstruction for the past two millennia. The results generated during this Fellowship will provide a greater understanding of the sensitivity of the Australasian region to the natural range of climatic variability (far beyond that recorded by historical datasets). Focussing on the past two millennia, the applicant will help investigate the timing, rate and magnitude of change, allowing a robust test of whether past changes were in phase with the Northern Hemisphere. The results will provide a considerably improved context for understanding present and future climate change in the Australasian region. Read moreRead less
The Southern Ocean Meridional Overturning Circulation: New observations of vertical mixing. The Southern Ocean and Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) play profound roles in Australian and global climate. However, we know little about how they will be affected by global warming. New velocity observations will tell us how the vertical mixing that contributes to the meridional overturning circulation, and ACC strength, change with the seasons and from year to year. The observations will also gi ....The Southern Ocean Meridional Overturning Circulation: New observations of vertical mixing. The Southern Ocean and Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) play profound roles in Australian and global climate. However, we know little about how they will be affected by global warming. New velocity observations will tell us how the vertical mixing that contributes to the meridional overturning circulation, and ACC strength, change with the seasons and from year to year. The observations will also give us a better understanding of the oceanic and atmospheric processes that drive these changes. This new information will allow climate models to be better constrained so they can more accurately predict changes to Australian and global climate.Read moreRead less