Towards a climate theory of tropical cyclone formation. In Earth's current climate, about 80 to 90 tropical cyclones form every year around the globe, but the reasons why cyclones form at this rate are unknown. This project will use a combination of theoretical techniques and numerical simulation to elucidate the links between large-scale climate and the rate of tropical cyclone formation. A series of climate model experiments will be performed that also have the potential to improve confidence ....Towards a climate theory of tropical cyclone formation. In Earth's current climate, about 80 to 90 tropical cyclones form every year around the globe, but the reasons why cyclones form at this rate are unknown. This project will use a combination of theoretical techniques and numerical simulation to elucidate the links between large-scale climate and the rate of tropical cyclone formation. A series of climate model experiments will be performed that also have the potential to improve confidence in our predictions of tropical cyclone incidence in a future, changed climate.Read moreRead less
Cloudiness over the Southern Ocean: reducing a key knowledge gap and source of climate model uncertainty. Southern Ocean clouds are key ingredients of the global climate system and yet are only poorly understood and poorly represented in climate models. Through the use of advanced observational analysis techniques this research will provide a deep understanding of key Southern Ocean cloud regimes and improve their representation in models.
Coupling tropical cyclone and climate physics with ocean waves. It is argued that without accounting for the wave effects directly, the physics of large-scale air-sea interactions is inaccurate and incomplete. The project will introduce explicit coupling of large-scale atmospheric and oceanic phenomena with the physics of surface waves which should lead to improved predictions of tropical cyclones and climate.
Resilience of eucalypts to future droughts. This project aims to examine how resilient Eucalyptus species are to future droughts by combining data synthesis, manipulative experiments and modelling. Climate change is expected to increase the frequency, magnitude and duration of future droughts, with major environmental and socio-economic consequences for Australia. Current predictive capacity is extremely limited: experiments are limited in scale and cannot capture important global change interac ....Resilience of eucalypts to future droughts. This project aims to examine how resilient Eucalyptus species are to future droughts by combining data synthesis, manipulative experiments and modelling. Climate change is expected to increase the frequency, magnitude and duration of future droughts, with major environmental and socio-economic consequences for Australia. Current predictive capacity is extremely limited: experiments are limited in scale and cannot capture important global change interactions, whilst models do not represent the functional characteristics and adaptions of eucalypts. This project will develop a strong evidence- and process-based understanding to quantify the functional behaviour of drought-adapted Eucalyptus species and leverage this insight to make future model projections.Read moreRead less
Are proposed land-based sinks for greenhouse gases resilient to climate change and natural variability? One strategy to reduce the scale of future climate change is to enhance the storage of carbon in vegetation and soils. Evidence suggests carbon stored in vegetation and soils is itself vulnerable to climate change, placing this stored carbon at risk; this project will assess this risk to advise on the reliability of using terrestrial systems as carbon sinks.
The changing relationship between the South Asian and Australian Monsoon in a warming world. The success or failure of the Australian and South Asian Monsoons can mean the difference between prosperity and severe hardship in the affected regions. This project will help to understand the causes of the monsoon variability, both natural and human-induced, and what the future might have in store.
Understanding leaf water isotope composition. This project aims to quantify variation in leaf water isotopes and develop mechanistic models for paleoclimatologists and plant scientists to constrain global carbon cycles. Leaf water stable isotopes influence the isotope compositions of atmospheric oxygen, carbon dioxide and water vapour, and impart an evaporative signal on the isotope composition of plant organic material. These isotope signals have been used to constrain global carbon and water c ....Understanding leaf water isotope composition. This project aims to quantify variation in leaf water isotopes and develop mechanistic models for paleoclimatologists and plant scientists to constrain global carbon cycles. Leaf water stable isotopes influence the isotope compositions of atmospheric oxygen, carbon dioxide and water vapour, and impart an evaporative signal on the isotope composition of plant organic material. These isotope signals have been used to constrain global carbon and water cycles and reconstruct past climates. This project aims to quantify variation in leaf water isotopes and develop mechanistic models for use by paleoclimatologists, plant scientists and to constrain global carbon cycles and develop accurate models of leaf water isotopes to reduce uncertainty in climate models.Read moreRead less
Ocean heat content change and its impact on sea level. This project aims to improve projections of possible sea level changes. Sea level rise is among the most significant potential impacts of transient climate change around the world. Poor understanding of the way in which heat is absorbed at the sea surface and distributed by ocean circulation is a leading source of uncertainty in projections of global surface temperature and regional sea level rise by the end of this century. This project aim ....Ocean heat content change and its impact on sea level. This project aims to improve projections of possible sea level changes. Sea level rise is among the most significant potential impacts of transient climate change around the world. Poor understanding of the way in which heat is absorbed at the sea surface and distributed by ocean circulation is a leading source of uncertainty in projections of global surface temperature and regional sea level rise by the end of this century. This project aims to apply novel observational methods, complimented by numerical modelling, to quantify the drivers of recent change. This project expects to transform our ability to predict how ocean temperature and sea level will change in the future.Read moreRead less
Causes of Enhanced Warming of the Southern Ocean. The Southern Ocean is critical to the global climate system in general, and Australian climate in particular. However, the Southern Ocean is poorly understood, poorly observed and poorly modelled by global climate models. The response of the Southern Ocean to increases in wind forcing (due to the ozone hole and global warming) will be examined. Climate impacts such as Australian rainfall trends, potential instability of the West Antarctic Ice She ....Causes of Enhanced Warming of the Southern Ocean. The Southern Ocean is critical to the global climate system in general, and Australian climate in particular. However, the Southern Ocean is poorly understood, poorly observed and poorly modelled by global climate models. The response of the Southern Ocean to increases in wind forcing (due to the ozone hole and global warming) will be examined. Climate impacts such as Australian rainfall trends, potential instability of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet and changes to the global overturning circulation will be quantified. Understanding these impacts will help to manage Australia's water resources and to predict the future Southern Ocean circulation.Read moreRead less
How topography brakes the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. This project aims to observe and simulate the mechanisms that slow the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. The Southern Ocean winds have increased over the last two decades while the transport of the world’s largest current remains steady or slightly decreasing. A possible explanation is negative feedback mechanisms between the winds and transport of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. This project will observe how eddies carry momentum from the ....How topography brakes the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. This project aims to observe and simulate the mechanisms that slow the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. The Southern Ocean winds have increased over the last two decades while the transport of the world’s largest current remains steady or slightly decreasing. A possible explanation is negative feedback mechanisms between the winds and transport of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. This project will observe how eddies carry momentum from the wind down to the sea floor and accelerate the deep currents that drag against the rough bottom to put the brakes on this current. Since this current affects Australian rainfall patterns and agricultural output, findings could inform public policy.Read moreRead less