Towards a climate theory of tropical cyclone formation. In Earth's current climate, about 80 to 90 tropical cyclones form every year around the globe, but the reasons why cyclones form at this rate are unknown. This project will use a combination of theoretical techniques and numerical simulation to elucidate the links between large-scale climate and the rate of tropical cyclone formation. A series of climate model experiments will be performed that also have the potential to improve confidence ....Towards a climate theory of tropical cyclone formation. In Earth's current climate, about 80 to 90 tropical cyclones form every year around the globe, but the reasons why cyclones form at this rate are unknown. This project will use a combination of theoretical techniques and numerical simulation to elucidate the links between large-scale climate and the rate of tropical cyclone formation. A series of climate model experiments will be performed that also have the potential to improve confidence in our predictions of tropical cyclone incidence in a future, changed climate.Read moreRead less
Climate model validation and generation of probabilistic climate projections using data from Phase 5 of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project. New climate model results will be compared with observations to test model skill. Probabilistic projections of regional-scale climate change will be developed and used to investigate a number of ecosystem impact case studies.
Discovery Early Career Researcher Award - Grant ID: DE230100315
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$450,042.00
Summary
How will Pacific climate variability impact Australia in a warming world? Temperature variability in the Pacific Ocean is characterised by El Niño and La Niña (year-to-year variations) and the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (decadal variations). These phenomena are primary drivers of Australian temperature and rainfall. Leveraging new tools and methods, including Single Model Initial-Condition Large Ensembles, this project will investigate drivers of these phenomena, and their impacts on Austr ....How will Pacific climate variability impact Australia in a warming world? Temperature variability in the Pacific Ocean is characterised by El Niño and La Niña (year-to-year variations) and the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (decadal variations). These phenomena are primary drivers of Australian temperature and rainfall. Leveraging new tools and methods, including Single Model Initial-Condition Large Ensembles, this project will investigate drivers of these phenomena, and their impacts on Australia in a warming world. Outcomes include the quantification of how these climate phenomena modulate extreme weather events, and an understanding of how Indian and Atlantic Ocean warming affects the Pacific region. This will improve the prediction of extreme events, which is critical for preparation for their impacts.Read moreRead less
Local climate changes caused by large bushfire burnt areas. This project aims to quantify the impact on local climate produced by large burnt areas after extreme bushfires. This project expects to generate new knowledge on these previously unexplored fire-scar induced changes to local climate. It will extend an innovative approach that combines satellite based earth observation with very high resolution regional climate modelling to quantify the impacts on land-atmosphere feedbacks and local cli ....Local climate changes caused by large bushfire burnt areas. This project aims to quantify the impact on local climate produced by large burnt areas after extreme bushfires. This project expects to generate new knowledge on these previously unexplored fire-scar induced changes to local climate. It will extend an innovative approach that combines satellite based earth observation with very high resolution regional climate modelling to quantify the impacts on land-atmosphere feedbacks and local climate. Expected outcomes of this project include enhanced methods to quantify local climate changes after extreme fires and their effect on vegetation recovery. This should provide significant benefits to the planning for, and management of, vegetation recovery after extreme fires.Read moreRead less
Transforming our research capacity in the analysis of climate extremes. Given their devastating impacts, there is now a critical urgency to understand what drives extreme climate events and make timely predictions of their future risk. The analysis of comprehensive extremes datasets, comprising global observations and output of multi-model simulations, will greatly improve our ability to answer fundamental questions about the nature and variability of extreme climatic events. This project also e ....Transforming our research capacity in the analysis of climate extremes. Given their devastating impacts, there is now a critical urgency to understand what drives extreme climate events and make timely predictions of their future risk. The analysis of comprehensive extremes datasets, comprising global observations and output of multi-model simulations, will greatly improve our ability to answer fundamental questions about the nature and variability of extreme climatic events. This project also ensures the government's continued commitment to managing the risks associated with extreme events as an urgent national priority. It represents a landmark opportunity for Australian leadership of an international collaboration between some of the world's leading climate scientists and climate data and modelling centres.Read moreRead less
Discovery Early Career Researcher Award - Grant ID: DE140100952
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$394,299.00
Summary
A comprehensive understanding of Australian heat waves: past, present and future. The frequency and duration of Australian heat waves is increasing. Existing theories include natural and human influences, however the relative roles of specific heat wave drivers are undefined. Using an ensemble of contemporary climate models, this project will determine the individual and combined roles of anthropogenic activities, natural forcings and internal variability that shape heat wave manifestation. Usin ....A comprehensive understanding of Australian heat waves: past, present and future. The frequency and duration of Australian heat waves is increasing. Existing theories include natural and human influences, however the relative roles of specific heat wave drivers are undefined. Using an ensemble of contemporary climate models, this project will determine the individual and combined roles of anthropogenic activities, natural forcings and internal variability that shape heat wave manifestation. Using the ability of models to simulate the appropriate mechanistic connections, plausible future projections of heat waves will be ascertained. This will be the first comprehensive analysis of changes in heat waves, providing essential resources for the adaptation, mitigation and preparedness towards future events.Read moreRead less
Resilience of eucalypts to future droughts. This project aims to examine how resilient Eucalyptus species are to future droughts by combining data synthesis, manipulative experiments and modelling. Climate change is expected to increase the frequency, magnitude and duration of future droughts, with major environmental and socio-economic consequences for Australia. Current predictive capacity is extremely limited: experiments are limited in scale and cannot capture important global change interac ....Resilience of eucalypts to future droughts. This project aims to examine how resilient Eucalyptus species are to future droughts by combining data synthesis, manipulative experiments and modelling. Climate change is expected to increase the frequency, magnitude and duration of future droughts, with major environmental and socio-economic consequences for Australia. Current predictive capacity is extremely limited: experiments are limited in scale and cannot capture important global change interactions, whilst models do not represent the functional characteristics and adaptions of eucalypts. This project will develop a strong evidence- and process-based understanding to quantify the functional behaviour of drought-adapted Eucalyptus species and leverage this insight to make future model projections.Read moreRead less
Linkage Infrastructure, Equipment And Facilities - Grant ID: LE240100116
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$1,200,000.00
Summary
Facilities for Atmospheric Boundary Layer Evaluation and Testing. This proposal aims to establish state-of-the-art stationary and mobile facilities for atmospheric wind, dust and plume measurements with unique capability to quantify the effect of climate change, surface topography and urbanisation on near-surface microclimate where humans live. To better predict microclimate, mitigate air pollution impacts and exploit local conditions for improved urban planning and agricultural yield, high qual ....Facilities for Atmospheric Boundary Layer Evaluation and Testing. This proposal aims to establish state-of-the-art stationary and mobile facilities for atmospheric wind, dust and plume measurements with unique capability to quantify the effect of climate change, surface topography and urbanisation on near-surface microclimate where humans live. To better predict microclimate, mitigate air pollution impacts and exploit local conditions for improved urban planning and agricultural yield, high quality observations of the near-surface atmosphere at fine temporal and spatial resolutions are required. The proposed Facilities for Atmospheric Boundary Layer Evaluation and Testing (FABLET) will advance Australia’s capability to make these difficult measurements of atmospheric boundary layer.Read moreRead less
Are proposed land-based sinks for greenhouse gases resilient to climate change and natural variability? One strategy to reduce the scale of future climate change is to enhance the storage of carbon in vegetation and soils. Evidence suggests carbon stored in vegetation and soils is itself vulnerable to climate change, placing this stored carbon at risk; this project will assess this risk to advise on the reliability of using terrestrial systems as carbon sinks.
How do humans affect the nature and impacts of Australian heatwaves? This project aims to provide more accurate information on the human signal behind heatwaves and their impacts, by deriving a comprehensive approach of the detection and attribution of climate extremes. The project expects to generate robust estimates of the human signal behind high-impact events, and an innovative, versatile methodology that can be applied to any extreme event and its impacts. With the specific application to A ....How do humans affect the nature and impacts of Australian heatwaves? This project aims to provide more accurate information on the human signal behind heatwaves and their impacts, by deriving a comprehensive approach of the detection and attribution of climate extremes. The project expects to generate robust estimates of the human signal behind high-impact events, and an innovative, versatile methodology that can be applied to any extreme event and its impacts. With the specific application to Australian heatwave impacts on human health, key knowledge should support more targeted and accurate mitigation policies, minimising the strain on resources when future heatwaves occur. This should help in safeguarding future generations from deadly impacts of heatwaves.Read moreRead less