The improvement of climate change investigations by developing and applying innovative evolutionary subset time series modelling using semi-parametric sparse-patterned approaches. With an estimated US$6.98 trillion loss indicated in the Stern review, severe climate change will make world climate conditions harsher and more likely include large natural climate disasters. The health of the Australian economy is critically dependent on decisions of environmental managers. However, most problems of ....The improvement of climate change investigations by developing and applying innovative evolutionary subset time series modelling using semi-parametric sparse-patterned approaches. With an estimated US$6.98 trillion loss indicated in the Stern review, severe climate change will make world climate conditions harsher and more likely include large natural climate disasters. The health of the Australian economy is critically dependent on decisions of environmental managers. However, most problems of complexity arising in climate change involve issues on which we do not possess a deep understanding. This project draws upon a set of inter-disciplinary concepts and models centred in neural networks that enable us to advance our understanding of complexity, leading to superior quantitative tools and models to allow for improved environmental decision-making.
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Statistical estimation and approximation of anomalous diffusion. This project investigates diffusion processes with long memory, heavy-tailed distributions and higher-order information. Each of these characteristics has been a subject of extensive current research. These processes arise in important applications with significant social/economic benefits such as heat conduction and fluid flow in porous media, propagation of seismic waves, transport of drug molecules in living tissues. Built on ou ....Statistical estimation and approximation of anomalous diffusion. This project investigates diffusion processes with long memory, heavy-tailed distributions and higher-order information. Each of these characteristics has been a subject of extensive current research. These processes arise in important applications with significant social/economic benefits such as heat conduction and fluid flow in porous media, propagation of seismic waves, transport of drug molecules in living tissues. Built on our recent fundamental developments of fractional generalised random fields and fractional diffusion equations, this project tackles the key problems of statistical estimation, approximation and prediction of diffusion processes with all the above characteristics in a unified framework not provided by other approaches.Read moreRead less
Bayesian Statistical Inference for Implicitly defined Probability Models. Bayesian statistics has recently been used to provide solutions for a large number of hitherto intractable problems in science and technology. The success of Bayesian statistics has mainly been due to the application of so-called Markov chain Monte Carlo computational techniques. We aim to improve these algorithms, by providing fast, simple and efficient computational implementations. We will use the results to give ins ....Bayesian Statistical Inference for Implicitly defined Probability Models. Bayesian statistics has recently been used to provide solutions for a large number of hitherto intractable problems in science and technology. The success of Bayesian statistics has mainly been due to the application of so-called Markov chain Monte Carlo computational techniques. We aim to improve these algorithms, by providing fast, simple and efficient computational implementations. We will use the results to give insight by carefully quantifying and modelling uncertainty for such topics as the transmission rate of infectious diseases, the spatial distribution of plant and animal species, investigating biological theory for the genome of a virus, and changes in human fertility.Read moreRead less
Improved Monte Carlo Methods for Estimation, Optimisation and Counting. The project will benefit the Australian society by building the theoretical and methodological foundations for the next generation of Monte Carlo techniques. The advancement of the knowledge in this area will provide important tools for solving complex estimation, optimisation and counting problems in engineering, statistics, computer science, mathematics and the physical and life sciences. As a result it will generate a com ....Improved Monte Carlo Methods for Estimation, Optimisation and Counting. The project will benefit the Australian society by building the theoretical and methodological foundations for the next generation of Monte Carlo techniques. The advancement of the knowledge in this area will provide important tools for solving complex estimation, optimisation and counting problems in engineering, statistics, computer science, mathematics and the physical and life sciences. As a result it will generate a competitive advantage for various sections of the Australian industry, including telecommunications, biotechnology and finance. The project will enable Australian researchers to continue to work at the forefront of this fast moving and exciting area of international research.Read moreRead less
Bayesian statistical methods for enhancing evidence-based practice in Australia's hospitals. This project addresses Australia's national research priority of Promoting and Maintaining Good Health with the goal of Preventative Healthcare. Through enhanced capability in combining information from diverse sources for improved evidence-based decisions and true sharing of university and medical expertise, the project will enhance Australia's medical research and practice, align professional and comm ....Bayesian statistical methods for enhancing evidence-based practice in Australia's hospitals. This project addresses Australia's national research priority of Promoting and Maintaining Good Health with the goal of Preventative Healthcare. Through enhanced capability in combining information from diverse sources for improved evidence-based decisions and true sharing of university and medical expertise, the project will enhance Australia's medical research and practice, align professional and community expectations, utilise local medical information, and address national demands for quality science underpinning health decisions.
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Making the Most of Database Information in Patient-Based Decision-Making - A Bayesian Approach. This project addresses Australia's national research priority of Promoting and Maintaining Good Health and will lead to immediate improvement in health outcomes through optimising patient outcomes in Australian hospitals; cross-disciplinary and cross-hospital communication. Through enhanced capability in combining information from diverse sources the project will enhance Australia's medical research a ....Making the Most of Database Information in Patient-Based Decision-Making - A Bayesian Approach. This project addresses Australia's national research priority of Promoting and Maintaining Good Health and will lead to immediate improvement in health outcomes through optimising patient outcomes in Australian hospitals; cross-disciplinary and cross-hospital communication. Through enhanced capability in combining information from diverse sources the project will enhance Australia's medical research and practice, align professional and community expectations, utilise increased amounts of local medical information, and address national demands for quality science underpinning health decisions.Read moreRead less
Innovative Bayesian statistics for enhanced decision making for pharmaceutical drug development. This project addresses Australia's national research priority of Promoting and Maintaining Good Health, and will lead to improvements in health outcomes by patients accessing new drugs sooner, enhancing research, and reducing the cost of health care. Decision making in early stages of drug development will be improved by using novel statistical methods, which could also be applied in a variety of sit ....Innovative Bayesian statistics for enhanced decision making for pharmaceutical drug development. This project addresses Australia's national research priority of Promoting and Maintaining Good Health, and will lead to improvements in health outcomes by patients accessing new drugs sooner, enhancing research, and reducing the cost of health care. Decision making in early stages of drug development will be improved by using novel statistical methods, which could also be applied in a variety of situations involving decision making procedures. This will be achieved through cross-disciplinary and university-industry collaboration, utilising Australian and international expertise. National demands for quality science and trained researchers underpinning health decisions will be contributed to.Read moreRead less
Discovery Early Career Researcher Award - Grant ID: DE160100741
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$382,274.00
Summary
Tractable Bayesian algorithms for intractable Bayesian problems. This project seeks to develop computationally efficient and scalable Bayesian algorithms to estimate the parameters of complex models and ensure inferences drawn from the models can be trusted. Bayesian parameter estimation and model validation procedures are currently computationally intractable for many complex models of interest in science and technology. These include biological processes such as the efficacy of heart disease, ....Tractable Bayesian algorithms for intractable Bayesian problems. This project seeks to develop computationally efficient and scalable Bayesian algorithms to estimate the parameters of complex models and ensure inferences drawn from the models can be trusted. Bayesian parameter estimation and model validation procedures are currently computationally intractable for many complex models of interest in science and technology. These include biological processes such as the efficacy of heart disease, wound healing and skin cancer treatments. Potential outcomes of the project include new algorithms to significantly economise computations and improved understanding of the mechanisms of experimental data generation. Improved models of wound healing, skin cancer growth and heart physiology supported by these algorithms could improve population health.Read moreRead less
Doing Bayesian Statistics Better: an Inter-Disciplinary Perspective for Improving Models, Priors, Design and Applications. Through improving methods for data analysis and design, this project increases the capability of individuals, communities and governments to make correct decisions based on data, leading to immeasurable human, social and financial benefits. It will also directly enhance Australia's international research reputation, promote inter-disciplinary links, promote research by wome ....Doing Bayesian Statistics Better: an Inter-Disciplinary Perspective for Improving Models, Priors, Design and Applications. Through improving methods for data analysis and design, this project increases the capability of individuals, communities and governments to make correct decisions based on data, leading to immeasurable human, social and financial benefits. It will also directly enhance Australia's international research reputation, promote inter-disciplinary links, promote research by women in a non-traditional area, keep intellectual property within Australia, train quality undergraduates and postgraduates, and contribute to public good through its focus on applications in key national priorities: health, environment and genetics. Read moreRead less
ARC Centre of Excellence for Mathematical and Statistical Frontiers of Big Data, Big Models, New Insights. In today's world, massive amounts of data in a variety of forms are collected daily from a multitude of sources. Many of the resulting data sets have the potential to make vital contributions to society, business and government, as well as impact on international developments, but are so large or complex that they are difficult to process and analyse using traditional tools. The aim of this ....ARC Centre of Excellence for Mathematical and Statistical Frontiers of Big Data, Big Models, New Insights. In today's world, massive amounts of data in a variety of forms are collected daily from a multitude of sources. Many of the resulting data sets have the potential to make vital contributions to society, business and government, as well as impact on international developments, but are so large or complex that they are difficult to process and analyse using traditional tools. The aim of this Centre is to create innovative mathematical and statistical models that can uncover the knowledge concealed within the size and complexity of these big data sets, with a focus on using the models to deliver insight into problems vital to the Centre's Collaborative Domains: Healthy People, Sustainable Environments and Prosperous Societies.Read moreRead less