State-contingent analysis of productivity, efficiency and innovation. Productivity growth is a fundamental precondition for sustainable improvements in living standards. The main drivers of productivity growth are technological innovation and improvements in the efficiency of resource use. Effective public policy in this area requires identification of these components. This project develops improved productivity measurement methods that are applicable in economic environments characterised b ....State-contingent analysis of productivity, efficiency and innovation. Productivity growth is a fundamental precondition for sustainable improvements in living standards. The main drivers of productivity growth are technological innovation and improvements in the efficiency of resource use. Effective public policy in this area requires identification of these components. This project develops improved productivity measurement methods that are applicable in economic environments characterised by production and/or demand uncertainty. The methods will be used to obtain improved estimates of rates of innovation and changes in the relative efficiency of selected Australian enterprises. The empirical results will inform National Competition Policy and the process of microeconomic reform.Read moreRead less
New Approaches to the Analysis of Count Time Series. The focus of this proposal is on the analysis of data that enumerate events over time. Occurrences of such count data abound in economics and business, examples being observations on insurance claims, loan defaults and individual product demand. This project develops a suite of innovative methods for modelling and predicting event counts. The methods explicitly accommodate both the discreteness of the data and possible complexities in its evo ....New Approaches to the Analysis of Count Time Series. The focus of this proposal is on the analysis of data that enumerate events over time. Occurrences of such count data abound in economics and business, examples being observations on insurance claims, loan defaults and individual product demand. This project develops a suite of innovative methods for modelling and predicting event counts. The methods explicitly accommodate both the discreteness of the data and possible complexities in its evolution over time. In so doing, they enable both accurate inferences regarding the dynamic structure of the data to be drawn and accurate forecasts of future event counts to be produced.Read moreRead less
Assessing the impacts of proposed carbon trading and tax schemes on the Australian electricity industry and the overall economy. Currently, policymakers require a much clearer understanding of the impacts of different carbon abatement policies. Mounting evidence on global warming is making this an increasingly urgent priority. The proposed project is specifically concerned with using state of the art economic modelling approaches to give the best advice possible to policymakers in crafting an e ....Assessing the impacts of proposed carbon trading and tax schemes on the Australian electricity industry and the overall economy. Currently, policymakers require a much clearer understanding of the impacts of different carbon abatement policies. Mounting evidence on global warming is making this an increasingly urgent priority. The proposed project is specifically concerned with using state of the art economic modelling approaches to give the best advice possible to policymakers in crafting an environmentally sustainable set of economic policy instruments that can maintain our enviable standard of living well into the future. The findings of the project will be available before the new Kyoto negotiation round commences.Read moreRead less
The Consistency of Price Regulation of Infrastructure Businesses across Australian Jurisdictions. The spread of regulation across the majority of the economy necessitates that regulatory policy should be consistent across jurisdictions and industries. This project would offer policy and regulatory institutions quantitative analysis of the consistency of regulatory decisions across Australia. This research would develop a new database that would maintain and supply details on regulatory decision ....The Consistency of Price Regulation of Infrastructure Businesses across Australian Jurisdictions. The spread of regulation across the majority of the economy necessitates that regulatory policy should be consistent across jurisdictions and industries. This project would offer policy and regulatory institutions quantitative analysis of the consistency of regulatory decisions across Australia. This research would develop a new database that would maintain and supply details on regulatory decisions across jurisdictions and industries. This project would enable the new Australian Centre of Regulatory Economics (ACORE) to supply independent database and quantitative analysis from an open, fully documented, scholarly environment to Australia's policy and regulatory agencies and its regulated firms.Read moreRead less
Economy-wide consequences of regulation and privatisation policy regimes. The spread of regulation across the majority of the economy necessitates that regulatory policy and approaches account for affects on GDP, employment, innovation and the growth rate. This project will offer policy institutions, including the ACCC, the Productivity Commission and the Treasury, an analysis of these effects and develop new computer models suited to future use to explore economy-wide implications. This need ....Economy-wide consequences of regulation and privatisation policy regimes. The spread of regulation across the majority of the economy necessitates that regulatory policy and approaches account for affects on GDP, employment, innovation and the growth rate. This project will offer policy institutions, including the ACCC, the Productivity Commission and the Treasury, an analysis of these effects and develop new computer models suited to future use to explore economy-wide implications. This need arises even in sectoral regulatory agencies, however, most particularly where service industries, such as telecommunications, are dominated by one or a few firms whose performance has major effects on the costs and innovativeness of firms in other sectors.Read moreRead less
Regional Dimensions: New Models for Analysis of the Spatial Effects of Policy, Socio-Demographic and Economic Changes. This project aims to substantially improve the decision-support tools available to State and Territory governments by providing them with, first, far more detailed small area data than has previously been available, via the creation of a synthetic small area household database and, second, with the capacity to assess the current and future impact of possible policy reforms and l ....Regional Dimensions: New Models for Analysis of the Spatial Effects of Policy, Socio-Demographic and Economic Changes. This project aims to substantially improve the decision-support tools available to State and Territory governments by providing them with, first, far more detailed small area data than has previously been available, via the creation of a synthetic small area household database and, second, with the capacity to assess the current and future impact of possible policy reforms and likely social, demographic and economic changes at the small area level, through the construction of microsimulation models on top of the synthetic household data.Read moreRead less
ASEAN+3 Free Trade Agreement and Its Impact on Australia-Vietnam Trade. The ASEAN+3 (China, Japan and Korea) free trade agreement endorsed by ASEAN Leaders in 2001 poses a serious trade diversion threat to Australia's goods and services trade to ASEAN and North Asia (reaching $33.9b and $85.0b respectively in 2001, see DFAT 2003). No research on this has been done or reported. The project, with Vietnam Institute for Trade collaboration, uses new analytical and empirical approaches to investigate ....ASEAN+3 Free Trade Agreement and Its Impact on Australia-Vietnam Trade. The ASEAN+3 (China, Japan and Korea) free trade agreement endorsed by ASEAN Leaders in 2001 poses a serious trade diversion threat to Australia's goods and services trade to ASEAN and North Asia (reaching $33.9b and $85.0b respectively in 2001, see DFAT 2003). No research on this has been done or reported. The project, with Vietnam Institute for Trade collaboration, uses new analytical and empirical approaches to investigate this FTA and its implications to Australia's trade to a major ASEAN country, namely Vietnam, where 2002 trade reached $2.8b and Australia's global companies (eg. ANZ, Telstra, RMIT) currently have large operation.Read moreRead less
Theoretically-motivated Long-term Internet Network Adoption Based on Short Time-series: Understanding the Diffusion of an Enabling Network Technology. A recent Government policy concerns innovation as a driver of long-term industry growth and a major determinant of global competitiveness. In particular, the Internet is a ?backbone? infrastructure for the conduct e-commerce, and enables efficiency benefits and product innovations to be realized in other sectors, e.g., banking, finance, health and ....Theoretically-motivated Long-term Internet Network Adoption Based on Short Time-series: Understanding the Diffusion of an Enabling Network Technology. A recent Government policy concerns innovation as a driver of long-term industry growth and a major determinant of global competitiveness. In particular, the Internet is a ?backbone? infrastructure for the conduct e-commerce, and enables efficiency benefits and product innovations to be realized in other sectors, e.g., banking, finance, health and tourism. This study estimates the network effect critical to forecasting Internet growth. Moreover, a structural model enhances understanding of underlying Internet dynamics and impacts on general economic conditions. Importantly, methods developed here apply to any network industry, and many non-network industries characterised by strong complementarity relations.Read moreRead less
Economic Growth and Real Exchange Rates. Exchange rate movements are important elements of Australia's economic environment. Protectionist interests in the US and Europe, constrained by WTO trade rules, accuse East Asian economies of deliberate undervaluation. While exchange rate movements are not readily predictable in the short run, long run changes in underlying real exchange rates are amenable to economic analysis using structural models. The clearer understanding of these forces, toward ....Economic Growth and Real Exchange Rates. Exchange rate movements are important elements of Australia's economic environment. Protectionist interests in the US and Europe, constrained by WTO trade rules, accuse East Asian economies of deliberate undervaluation. While exchange rate movements are not readily predictable in the short run, long run changes in underlying real exchange rates are amenable to economic analysis using structural models. The clearer understanding of these forces, toward which this project is directed, will better guide investment in the region, including in Australia, and more importantly, it will better inform future policy debates surrounding currency movements.Read moreRead less
Developing a model to assess the economic consequences of cannabis policy options. The potential economic benefits of the project reside in the ability of governments to make cannabis policy decisions based on assumptions of reduced economic burden of one model over another through:
1.the direct comparison in economic terms of three different models for the regulation of cannabis;
2.a model for estimating economic costs associated with cannabis which can be applied to other illicit drugs;
3 ....Developing a model to assess the economic consequences of cannabis policy options. The potential economic benefits of the project reside in the ability of governments to make cannabis policy decisions based on assumptions of reduced economic burden of one model over another through:
1.the direct comparison in economic terms of three different models for the regulation of cannabis;
2.a model for estimating economic costs associated with cannabis which can be applied to other illicit drugs;
3.improving the evidence-base for policy decision-making at all jurisdictions in Australia.
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