Health Production Functions: Effects of Socioeconomic and Lifestyle Factors on Health Status. Improving the health and wellbeing of individuals is a priority for the Australian government. Empirical knowledge on the determinants of health is crucial for effective allocation of public health funds. We propose a thorough economic investigation into the interrelationships between self-assessed health, chronic conditions, obesity, private insurance status, and socioeconomic and lifestyle factors, us ....Health Production Functions: Effects of Socioeconomic and Lifestyle Factors on Health Status. Improving the health and wellbeing of individuals is a priority for the Australian government. Empirical knowledge on the determinants of health is crucial for effective allocation of public health funds. We propose a thorough economic investigation into the interrelationships between self-assessed health, chronic conditions, obesity, private insurance status, and socioeconomic and lifestyle factors, using advanced microeconometric techniques and comprehensive national and Victorian health surveys. We will link the micro-level findings to economic and policy implications for the Australian health sector and society. The research will be valuable in the design and evaluation of health promotion programs.Read moreRead less
Patient waiting times at public hospitals and the demand for private care. Public hospital waiting times compromise the objective of accessible health care for all Australians. Past policy focused on private insurance incentives to ease pressure on public hospitals. Current policy focuses on extra public provision. This will be the first Australian research to model the impact of waiting times on private health insurance and the choice between private and public hospital treatment. We will analy ....Patient waiting times at public hospitals and the demand for private care. Public hospital waiting times compromise the objective of accessible health care for all Australians. Past policy focused on private insurance incentives to ease pressure on public hospitals. Current policy focuses on extra public provision. This will be the first Australian research to model the impact of waiting times on private health insurance and the choice between private and public hospital treatment. We will analyse how waiting times differ by income, medical procedure and region, and quantify the benefits associated with different ways of reducing waiting lists. This research will provide an evidence base for effective policy design and lead to better targeting of health care investments.Read moreRead less
Impacts of Population Ageing and Prevalence of Chronic Illnesses on Labour Market Outcomes and Health Service Utilisation. The Australian population is ageing due to the combined effects of increasing life expectancy and decreasing birth rate. The prevalence of major chronic illnesses including diabetes, heart disease and mental health conditions has also increased consistently. With a suite of state-of-the-art econometric and simulation models, we propose the first comprehensive analysis at the ....Impacts of Population Ageing and Prevalence of Chronic Illnesses on Labour Market Outcomes and Health Service Utilisation. The Australian population is ageing due to the combined effects of increasing life expectancy and decreasing birth rate. The prevalence of major chronic illnesses including diabetes, heart disease and mental health conditions has also increased consistently. With a suite of state-of-the-art econometric and simulation models, we propose the first comprehensive analysis at the individual level of the complex relationships between health status, chronic illnesses, labour market decisions, private health insurance status, and health service utilisations of older Australians. The research will enhance the technical rigour and capacity for analysing a range of health and ageing related policies and issues.Read moreRead less
Investigating Linkages Among Individual Decision Rules, Properties of Experimental Designs and Choice Models In Environmental Economics Applications. Discrete Choice Experiments or 'stated preference' (SP) surveys are increasingly being used to estimate public benefits of proposed environmental policy changes. The accuracy of environmental policy analyses and forecasts of welfare changes based on SP models depends heavily on unbiased parameter estimates. Our project aims to assess what happens i ....Investigating Linkages Among Individual Decision Rules, Properties of Experimental Designs and Choice Models In Environmental Economics Applications. Discrete Choice Experiments or 'stated preference' (SP) surveys are increasingly being used to estimate public benefits of proposed environmental policy changes. The accuracy of environmental policy analyses and forecasts of welfare changes based on SP models depends heavily on unbiased parameter estimates. Our project aims to assess what happens if common assumptions about consumer preferences in SP surveys are violated. We also study whether exploratory analysis methods can detect the violations to guide future research and applications. Successful completion of this project will lead to more accurate policy analyses and forecasts based on discrete choice models.Read moreRead less
A Bayesian State Space Methodology for Forecasting Stock Market Volatility and Associated Time-varying Risk Premia. Accurate prediction of stock market volatility is critical for effective financial risk management. Along with information on volatility embedded in historical stock market returns, the prices of options written on the underlying stocks also reflect the option market's assessment of future volatility. This project will exploit this dual data source in a completely new way, using it ....A Bayesian State Space Methodology for Forecasting Stock Market Volatility and Associated Time-varying Risk Premia. Accurate prediction of stock market volatility is critical for effective financial risk management. Along with information on volatility embedded in historical stock market returns, the prices of options written on the underlying stocks also reflect the option market's assessment of future volatility. This project will exploit this dual data source in a completely new way, using it to produce forecasts of both volatility itself and the premia factored into asset prices as a result of traders' perceptions of volatility risk. State-of-the-art statistical methods will be used to produce up-dates of the probability of extreme volatility and/or extreme risk aversion, as new market data becomes available each trading day.Read moreRead less
Non-parametric estimation of forecast distributions in non-Gaussian state space models. The production of accurate forecasts is arguably one of the most challenging tasks in economics, business and finance, where data often assume strictly positive, integer or binary values, or are characterized by many extreme values far from the average. This project will produce new, state-of-the-art statistical methods for generating accurate estimates of the probabilities attached to different possible futu ....Non-parametric estimation of forecast distributions in non-Gaussian state space models. The production of accurate forecasts is arguably one of the most challenging tasks in economics, business and finance, where data often assume strictly positive, integer or binary values, or are characterized by many extreme values far from the average. This project will produce new, state-of-the-art statistical methods for generating accurate estimates of the probabilities attached to different possible future values of such variables. Although far-ranging in scope, the techniques advocated will have particular impact in the financial sphere, where the concept of future risk is inextricably linked to the probability of occurrence of extreme values and, hence, to the future probability distribution of the financial variable. Read moreRead less
New Approaches to the Analysis of Count Time Series. The focus of this proposal is on the analysis of data that enumerate events over time. Occurrences of such count data abound in economics and business, examples being observations on insurance claims, loan defaults and individual product demand. This project develops a suite of innovative methods for modelling and predicting event counts. The methods explicitly accommodate both the discreteness of the data and possible complexities in its evo ....New Approaches to the Analysis of Count Time Series. The focus of this proposal is on the analysis of data that enumerate events over time. Occurrences of such count data abound in economics and business, examples being observations on insurance claims, loan defaults and individual product demand. This project develops a suite of innovative methods for modelling and predicting event counts. The methods explicitly accommodate both the discreteness of the data and possible complexities in its evolution over time. In so doing, they enable both accurate inferences regarding the dynamic structure of the data to be drawn and accurate forecasts of future event counts to be produced.Read moreRead less
New estimation and testing issues in nonlinear time series econometrics. The outcomes of this project will not only complement but also enhance the existing strengths of Australian researchers in the field of econometrics. The outcomes are also expected to help stabilise the national financial market for more accurate forecasts. It is also expected that the outcomes will provide novel models to respond to climate change and variability and to provide accurate warming estimates for improving the ....New estimation and testing issues in nonlinear time series econometrics. The outcomes of this project will not only complement but also enhance the existing strengths of Australian researchers in the field of econometrics. The outcomes are also expected to help stabilise the national financial market for more accurate forecasts. It is also expected that the outcomes will provide novel models to respond to climate change and variability and to provide accurate warming estimates for improving the policy making process.Read moreRead less
Fractional Integration, Power Laws and Econometric Models: Some Methodological and Theoretical Developments. The fundamental objectives of this project are to: (i) Extend
current econometric practice and consider the use of power laws as
a basis for the construction of a more flexible and realistic
class of models for the analysis of economic and financial time
series. (ii) To develop inferential techniques appropriate for the
modelling of dynamic econometric systems that incorporate
struc ....Fractional Integration, Power Laws and Econometric Models: Some Methodological and Theoretical Developments. The fundamental objectives of this project are to: (i) Extend
current econometric practice and consider the use of power laws as
a basis for the construction of a more flexible and realistic
class of models for the analysis of economic and financial time
series. (ii) To develop inferential techniques appropriate for the
modelling of dynamic econometric systems that incorporate
structure characterized by power laws. This will be achieved by
building upon the class of fractionally integrated processes. New
econometric models and methodologies for the analysis of
non-stationarity series will be developed, along with the
associated theoretical results.Read moreRead less
House Prices in Australia: A Hedonic Analysis. House prices are an important input to monetary policy since they impact directly on inflation and may be a source of speculative bubbles. The Governor of the Reserve Bank, however, recently described housing as the ``weakest link in all the price data.'' This project will attempt to resolve this problem. The resulting indexes should be of considerable interest to the Reserve Bank, the media, home owners, the real estate industry, and enhance the re ....House Prices in Australia: A Hedonic Analysis. House prices are an important input to monetary policy since they impact directly on inflation and may be a source of speculative bubbles. The Governor of the Reserve Bank, however, recently described housing as the ``weakest link in all the price data.'' This project will attempt to resolve this problem. The resulting indexes should be of considerable interest to the Reserve Bank, the media, home owners, the real estate industry, and enhance the reputation of Australian universities. They will also quantify the extent of the burden imposed on young people by rising house prices, and its consequent strain on society.Read moreRead less