Heuristic-based behavioural models with an application to macroeconomics. This project will develop behavioural micro-foundations for economic models with heterogeneous agents. In these models the interaction of decision rules used by agents leads to complex phenomena at the aggregate level, for example, the cycles of bubbles and crashes. The agents switch between decision rules on the basis of past performance. However, a broad range of specifications of the rules and switching mechanisms has l ....Heuristic-based behavioural models with an application to macroeconomics. This project will develop behavioural micro-foundations for economic models with heterogeneous agents. In these models the interaction of decision rules used by agents leads to complex phenomena at the aggregate level, for example, the cycles of bubbles and crashes. The agents switch between decision rules on the basis of past performance. However, a broad range of specifications of the rules and switching mechanisms has led to many degrees of freedom in modelling. In this project, laboratory experiments with paid human subjects will be used to discipline this modelling. The resulting models will improve macroeconomic and financial policy responses to volatile market conditions.Read moreRead less
Implications of Global Economic Forces for Domestic Monetary Policy. The project aims to quantify and understand the extent to which international factors affect key macroeconomic variables such as inflation and interest rates in open economies. The aims will be achieved through the development and application of new macroeconomic and econometric models. Expected outcomes are new insights and policy recommendations on how to appropriately conduct monetary policy for an open economy such as Austr ....Implications of Global Economic Forces for Domestic Monetary Policy. The project aims to quantify and understand the extent to which international factors affect key macroeconomic variables such as inflation and interest rates in open economies. The aims will be achieved through the development and application of new macroeconomic and econometric models. Expected outcomes are new insights and policy recommendations on how to appropriately conduct monetary policy for an open economy such as Australia. This should provide significant benefits to the broader Australian economy through the conduct of suitable policy by institutions such as the Reserve Bank of Australia.Read moreRead less
Economic policy when interest rates are zero. This Project studies economic policy when interest rates are zero. Low interest rate environments constrain monetary policy because central banks cannot lower rates to raise demand. We exploit recent international experience with zero rates to understand why new policies have had mixed success. We argue different outcomes across countries arise because of different degrees of credibility and familiarity with new policy initiatives. We provide empiric ....Economic policy when interest rates are zero. This Project studies economic policy when interest rates are zero. Low interest rate environments constrain monetary policy because central banks cannot lower rates to raise demand. We exploit recent international experience with zero rates to understand why new policies have had mixed success. We argue different outcomes across countries arise because of different degrees of credibility and familiarity with new policy initiatives. We provide empirical support for this view and study the consequences of imperfectly credible policy. We characterize how monetary policy (conventional and unconventional) and fiscal policy can be used to greatest effect in low interest rate environments and quantify the welfare implications for Australia. Read moreRead less
Discovery Early Career Researcher Award - Grant ID: DE150100795
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$365,000.00
Summary
New approaches to estimating nonlinear time-varying macroeconometric models. Quantitative models are essential for formulating good policies. In a changing world, the analysis should be based on models that allow the behaviour of the economy to change over time. Due to computational limitations, however, one is often restricted to linear models, even when nonlinear ones are more appropriate. This project aims to develop new methods for estimating time-varying nonlinear models. Two important appl ....New approaches to estimating nonlinear time-varying macroeconometric models. Quantitative models are essential for formulating good policies. In a changing world, the analysis should be based on models that allow the behaviour of the economy to change over time. Due to computational limitations, however, one is often restricted to linear models, even when nonlinear ones are more appropriate. This project aims to develop new methods for estimating time-varying nonlinear models. Two important applications are also considered: one investigates how the zero lower bound on interest rates affects the monetary policy transmission mechanism; and, the other examines how uncertainties about monetary and fiscal policy affect economic growth and inflation. This project will have strong practical significance for conducting macroeconomic policy.Read moreRead less
Measuring inflation expectations and inflation expectations uncertainty. This project aims to construct model-based measures of inflation expectations and inflation expectations uncertainty. Inflation expectations can determine economic outcomes. This project will develop non-linear time-varying models to combine information from noisy and possibly biased measures of inflation expectations from surveys and financial markets. These model-based measures are expected to be better calibrated and to ....Measuring inflation expectations and inflation expectations uncertainty. This project aims to construct model-based measures of inflation expectations and inflation expectations uncertainty. Inflation expectations can determine economic outcomes. This project will develop non-linear time-varying models to combine information from noisy and possibly biased measures of inflation expectations from surveys and financial markets. These model-based measures are expected to be better calibrated and to provide valuable information for policymakers for formulating macroeconomic policies. They can be used to better assess the credibility of monetary policy and shed light on the causes of low inflation rate in developed economies.Read moreRead less
High-dimensional models with a change point. This project aims to provide a set of estimation and inference procedures for high dimensional quantile regression. Statistical models of threshold regression with change or tipping points are used to explore social issues, including changes in oil and gas prices, effective dosage of drugs and the racial mix in neighbourhoods. To date, using low numbers of variables, the findings have been limited. Big data makes it possible and desirable to solve mor ....High-dimensional models with a change point. This project aims to provide a set of estimation and inference procedures for high dimensional quantile regression. Statistical models of threshold regression with change or tipping points are used to explore social issues, including changes in oil and gas prices, effective dosage of drugs and the racial mix in neighbourhoods. To date, using low numbers of variables, the findings have been limited. Big data makes it possible and desirable to solve more detailed models to provide more accurate results. The quality and accuracy of the project’s results are expected to help governments devise well informed and appropriate policies for social issues.Read moreRead less
Discovery Early Career Researcher Award - Grant ID: DE120102589
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$375,000.00
Summary
Monetary policy and models of money, credit and banking. This project develops models with money and credit following recent developments in monetary theory with microfoundations. The objectives of the project are to understand the fundamental functions of credit, how credit affects the aggregate economy, and how credit affects the transmission of monetary policy.
Pooling econometric models for prediction and decision making. The project develops methods for combining econometric models with the goal of improving prediction. It applies these methods to macroeconomic models used to improve monetary policy and to asset return models used to improve financial risk management.