Meta-modelling of ecological, evolutionary and climatic systems dynamics. This project aims to improve forecasts of the response of biodiversity to future climate change and so improve on-ground conservation management. Using dynamic systems modelling, tested against field data from a wide variety of case studies, the project models will integrate a variety of biological and geophysical inputs to produce more realistic forecasts of change.
Systems modelling for synergistic ecological-climate dynamics. The project aims to improve forecasts of the response of biodiversity to future climate change and so improve on-ground conservation management. A systems modelling framework will be developed and tested against real-world data to integrate a wide variety of biological and geophysical inputs and so produce more realistic predictions.
Generalised methods for testing extinction dynamics across geological, near and modern time scales. The record of extinctions over deep time is patchy and incomplete, yet we must use it to determine how major changes in past environments have shaped life on Earth today. The project will develop cutting-edge mathematical tools to determine the patterns of extinctions and speciation over geological time to help predict our uncertain environmental future.
Integrating models with molecular 'logbooks' to better forecast extinction risk from climate change. Current forecasts indicate that human-driven climate change will likely cause widespread biodiversity loss. However, climatic shifts during the Quaternary (2.6 million years ago to present), similar in magnitude to those projected for the 21st century, did not apparently cause extensive extinctions (with the exception of the megafauna). This project aims to use models linked to past responses imp ....Integrating models with molecular 'logbooks' to better forecast extinction risk from climate change. Current forecasts indicate that human-driven climate change will likely cause widespread biodiversity loss. However, climatic shifts during the Quaternary (2.6 million years ago to present), similar in magnitude to those projected for the 21st century, did not apparently cause extensive extinctions (with the exception of the megafauna). This project aims to use models linked to past responses imprinted in species’ genes to resolve whether the disparity between observed and predicted extinction rates comes from models over-predicting species loss due to climate change. It will use this genetic-demographic approach to improve predictions of biodiversity responses to global change by establishing the biological and environmental determinants of extinction.Read moreRead less
Identifying the genes and population histories that drive rapid adaptive change and speciation. This project will uncover the genetic variation and demographic histories that allow rapid adaptation and speciation in natural populations. It will leverage the powerful framework provided by Indo-Australian sea snakes, and new gene sequencing technologies, to reconstruct the evolutionary histories of genes, populations and species. Using this data, it will address inter-related key questions that ar ....Identifying the genes and population histories that drive rapid adaptive change and speciation. This project will uncover the genetic variation and demographic histories that allow rapid adaptation and speciation in natural populations. It will leverage the powerful framework provided by Indo-Australian sea snakes, and new gene sequencing technologies, to reconstruct the evolutionary histories of genes, populations and species. Using this data, it will address inter-related key questions that are critical to effective biodiversity conservation but have rarely been evaluated in the same taxon. It will address what genetic changes are involved in adaptive shifts and speciation, whether these originate de novo or from pre-existing variation and how gene flow and changes in population size promote or constrain adaptation and speciation.Read moreRead less
Solving the problems of estimating extinction rates in recent and geological time. Human activity is causing species to go extinct at rates not seen for at least 65 million years: this is the sixth mass extinction event in the history of the Earth. This project will use state-of-the-art modelling tools applied to Australian and global species and land-use change data to quantify humanity's influence on recent and future extinctions.
Determining the relative roles of dispersal and vicariance in the assembly of the New Zealand fauna. New fossils from New Zealand's St Bathans Fauna (19-16 million years) will revolutionise our understanding of the shared biodiversity and evolutionary history of New Zealand and Australia through the first views of the origin and evolution of major Gondwanan groups including frogs, crocodiles, birds and bats on the now mostly-drowned continent Zealandia.
Diversification and conservation of Australian frogs. Australia's 216 known species of frogs are exceptionally diverse, 98 per cent are found nowhere else in the world and many of them are in trouble. This project will test ideas concerning the tempo of Australian frog diversification, identify previously cryptic new species and provide information critical to the conservation of Australia's declining frogs.