Entropic Analysis of Financial Risk and Uncertainty. The recent financial crisis has shown that the financial markets are not as stable as expected, and are at risk from a lack of knowledge about new financial products and their risks. This research provides a framework to better measure and forecast financial risks by applying a set of techniques known collectively as entropic analysis as a novel way to measure the amount of information that can be extracted from historical data. The research w ....Entropic Analysis of Financial Risk and Uncertainty. The recent financial crisis has shown that the financial markets are not as stable as expected, and are at risk from a lack of knowledge about new financial products and their risks. This research provides a framework to better measure and forecast financial risks by applying a set of techniques known collectively as entropic analysis as a novel way to measure the amount of information that can be extracted from historical data. The research will facilitate the design of policies and regulations by regulatory authorities that need to evaluate new financial products, their associated risks and their impacts on the financial markets.Read moreRead less
Australia's Resilience to Recession. This project aims to study why Australia differs from its OECD peers in that it has not had a recession for 27 years. It intends to generate knowledge by using economic models to solve 3 puzzles relating to Australia’s success: (i) why did foreign financial market shocks not spill over to the economy?; (ii) how has the resource curse that affects economies with a booming resource sector been avoided?; and (iii) what makes Australia special? Expected outcomes ....Australia's Resilience to Recession. This project aims to study why Australia differs from its OECD peers in that it has not had a recession for 27 years. It intends to generate knowledge by using economic models to solve 3 puzzles relating to Australia’s success: (i) why did foreign financial market shocks not spill over to the economy?; (ii) how has the resource curse that affects economies with a booming resource sector been avoided?; and (iii) what makes Australia special? Expected outcomes include the development of theoretical and empirical models that reflect the unique features of the Australian economy. This should provide significant benefits, including guidance to Australian and international policymakers on macroeconomic policies for resource-rich countries.Read moreRead less
Helping Central Banks Measure Unobserved Variables Using Real-time Forecasts. The project addresses structural measurement problems confronted routinely by central bankers. The techniques developed, and the estimates provided, will aid directly the Partner Organisations (the Reserve Bank of Australia, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and Norges Bank) and other central banks in formulating monetary policy. The analysis will allow interest rates in Australia and elsewhere to be set with greater pre ....Helping Central Banks Measure Unobserved Variables Using Real-time Forecasts. The project addresses structural measurement problems confronted routinely by central bankers. The techniques developed, and the estimates provided, will aid directly the Partner Organisations (the Reserve Bank of Australia, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and Norges Bank) and other central banks in formulating monetary policy. The analysis will allow interest rates in Australia and elsewhere to be set with greater precision. The techniques developed in this project will facilitate the understanding and communication of monetary policy within the central banks concerned, and enhance communication of monetary policy strategy to the public.Read moreRead less
Estimation of the continuous piecewise linear model and macroeconomic applications. Relationships between economic variables are often characterised by non-linearities. This project develops a method to analyse a type of non-linearity that is frequently encountered in economics and uses this method to study four specific applications concerning the dynamics of inflation, growth, and the exchange rate.
Discovery Early Career Researcher Award - Grant ID: DE150100795
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$365,000.00
Summary
New approaches to estimating nonlinear time-varying macroeconometric models. Quantitative models are essential for formulating good policies. In a changing world, the analysis should be based on models that allow the behaviour of the economy to change over time. Due to computational limitations, however, one is often restricted to linear models, even when nonlinear ones are more appropriate. This project aims to develop new methods for estimating time-varying nonlinear models. Two important appl ....New approaches to estimating nonlinear time-varying macroeconometric models. Quantitative models are essential for formulating good policies. In a changing world, the analysis should be based on models that allow the behaviour of the economy to change over time. Due to computational limitations, however, one is often restricted to linear models, even when nonlinear ones are more appropriate. This project aims to develop new methods for estimating time-varying nonlinear models. Two important applications are also considered: one investigates how the zero lower bound on interest rates affects the monetary policy transmission mechanism; and, the other examines how uncertainties about monetary and fiscal policy affect economic growth and inflation. This project will have strong practical significance for conducting macroeconomic policy.Read moreRead less
Measuring inflation expectations and inflation expectations uncertainty. This project aims to construct model-based measures of inflation expectations and inflation expectations uncertainty. Inflation expectations can determine economic outcomes. This project will develop non-linear time-varying models to combine information from noisy and possibly biased measures of inflation expectations from surveys and financial markets. These model-based measures are expected to be better calibrated and to ....Measuring inflation expectations and inflation expectations uncertainty. This project aims to construct model-based measures of inflation expectations and inflation expectations uncertainty. Inflation expectations can determine economic outcomes. This project will develop non-linear time-varying models to combine information from noisy and possibly biased measures of inflation expectations from surveys and financial markets. These model-based measures are expected to be better calibrated and to provide valuable information for policymakers for formulating macroeconomic policies. They can be used to better assess the credibility of monetary policy and shed light on the causes of low inflation rate in developed economies.Read moreRead less
Financing aged care in Australia: Mitigating fiscal gaps and maintaining intergenerational equity. Aged care has been identified as a significant contributor to the growing fiscal problems predicted for Australian government finances during the next 10 to 20 years. This project will develop the cutting-edge modelling tools needed to allow Australia to make informed decisions about possible reforms in aged care financing. It will create significant national benefits by allowing detailed assessmen ....Financing aged care in Australia: Mitigating fiscal gaps and maintaining intergenerational equity. Aged care has been identified as a significant contributor to the growing fiscal problems predicted for Australian government finances during the next 10 to 20 years. This project will develop the cutting-edge modelling tools needed to allow Australia to make informed decisions about possible reforms in aged care financing. It will create significant national benefits by allowing detailed assessment of the distributional impact of a wide range of possible reforms, including how the outcomes of any policy change will affect disadvantaged sections of our society, whether different generations will be fairly treated, and the impact by gender.Read moreRead less
International linkages between financial and real economy cycles. This project will develop empirical multivariate models of business cycles for different countries, and will study how they are linked via international financial markets. The significance of the project is that the models will integrate previous work done on financial-real economy links in single country settings, and it will explicitly study the effects of disequilibrium in international financial markets (such as overvaluation ....International linkages between financial and real economy cycles. This project will develop empirical multivariate models of business cycles for different countries, and will study how they are linked via international financial markets. The significance of the project is that the models will integrate previous work done on financial-real economy links in single country settings, and it will explicitly study the effects of disequilibrium in international financial markets (such as overvaluation of foreign currency) on individual economies. The project will determine the appropriate domestic monetary policy response to such shocks, and the potential for forecasting both the advent of such shocks and their impact on individual economies.Read moreRead less
Understanding Dynamic Aspects of Economic Inequality. This project aims to study dynamic aspects of inequality in Australia by exploring the changes in labour and housing market conditions and their relation to the changes in the distribution of income and wealth over the last decade. The project also aims to develop new econometric techniques to examine the factors that are responsible for the changes in the distribution of income and wealth and a range of labour and housing market outcomes. Pa ....Understanding Dynamic Aspects of Economic Inequality. This project aims to study dynamic aspects of inequality in Australia by exploring the changes in labour and housing market conditions and their relation to the changes in the distribution of income and wealth over the last decade. The project also aims to develop new econometric techniques to examine the factors that are responsible for the changes in the distribution of income and wealth and a range of labour and housing market outcomes. Particular attention will be paid to the role of the changes in individual-specific characteristics (such as education, age, employment status, and occupation) and neighbourhood-specific characteristics (such as house prices and population ageing) in producing inequality.Read moreRead less
The relationship between firm innovation and performance and the role of the government. Productivity growth in Australia has plateaued. Although Federal and State Governments employ a range of different innovation policies designed to stimulate productivity growth, little is known about the effects these programs, and of innovation more generally, on firm performance. One reason why this relationship is unknown relates to the availability of firm-level data. This project, will take advantage of ....The relationship between firm innovation and performance and the role of the government. Productivity growth in Australia has plateaued. Although Federal and State Governments employ a range of different innovation policies designed to stimulate productivity growth, little is known about the effects these programs, and of innovation more generally, on firm performance. One reason why this relationship is unknown relates to the availability of firm-level data. This project, will take advantage of unique access to a dataset provided by the Australian Bureau of Statistics which enables us to observe the activities of every firm in Australia. Using these data and appropriate econometric techniques, the study will examine the effect of a range of government policies designed to stimulate innovation and productivity growth. Read moreRead less