Entropic Analysis of Financial Risk and Uncertainty. The recent financial crisis has shown that the financial markets are not as stable as expected, and are at risk from a lack of knowledge about new financial products and their risks. This research provides a framework to better measure and forecast financial risks by applying a set of techniques known collectively as entropic analysis as a novel way to measure the amount of information that can be extracted from historical data. The research w ....Entropic Analysis of Financial Risk and Uncertainty. The recent financial crisis has shown that the financial markets are not as stable as expected, and are at risk from a lack of knowledge about new financial products and their risks. This research provides a framework to better measure and forecast financial risks by applying a set of techniques known collectively as entropic analysis as a novel way to measure the amount of information that can be extracted from historical data. The research will facilitate the design of policies and regulations by regulatory authorities that need to evaluate new financial products, their associated risks and their impacts on the financial markets.Read moreRead less
Estimation of the continuous piecewise linear model and macroeconomic applications. Relationships between economic variables are often characterised by non-linearities. This project develops a method to analyse a type of non-linearity that is frequently encountered in economics and uses this method to study four specific applications concerning the dynamics of inflation, growth, and the exchange rate.
Measuring inflation expectations and inflation expectations uncertainty. This project aims to construct model-based measures of inflation expectations and inflation expectations uncertainty. Inflation expectations can determine economic outcomes. This project will develop non-linear time-varying models to combine information from noisy and possibly biased measures of inflation expectations from surveys and financial markets. These model-based measures are expected to be better calibrated and to ....Measuring inflation expectations and inflation expectations uncertainty. This project aims to construct model-based measures of inflation expectations and inflation expectations uncertainty. Inflation expectations can determine economic outcomes. This project will develop non-linear time-varying models to combine information from noisy and possibly biased measures of inflation expectations from surveys and financial markets. These model-based measures are expected to be better calibrated and to provide valuable information for policymakers for formulating macroeconomic policies. They can be used to better assess the credibility of monetary policy and shed light on the causes of low inflation rate in developed economies.Read moreRead less
Understanding Dynamic Aspects of Economic Inequality. This project aims to study dynamic aspects of inequality in Australia by exploring the changes in labour and housing market conditions and their relation to the changes in the distribution of income and wealth over the last decade. The project also aims to develop new econometric techniques to examine the factors that are responsible for the changes in the distribution of income and wealth and a range of labour and housing market outcomes. Pa ....Understanding Dynamic Aspects of Economic Inequality. This project aims to study dynamic aspects of inequality in Australia by exploring the changes in labour and housing market conditions and their relation to the changes in the distribution of income and wealth over the last decade. The project also aims to develop new econometric techniques to examine the factors that are responsible for the changes in the distribution of income and wealth and a range of labour and housing market outcomes. Particular attention will be paid to the role of the changes in individual-specific characteristics (such as education, age, employment status, and occupation) and neighbourhood-specific characteristics (such as house prices and population ageing) in producing inequality.Read moreRead less
The relationship between firm innovation and performance and the role of the government. Productivity growth in Australia has plateaued. Although Federal and State Governments employ a range of different innovation policies designed to stimulate productivity growth, little is known about the effects these programs, and of innovation more generally, on firm performance. One reason why this relationship is unknown relates to the availability of firm-level data. This project, will take advantage of ....The relationship between firm innovation and performance and the role of the government. Productivity growth in Australia has plateaued. Although Federal and State Governments employ a range of different innovation policies designed to stimulate productivity growth, little is known about the effects these programs, and of innovation more generally, on firm performance. One reason why this relationship is unknown relates to the availability of firm-level data. This project, will take advantage of unique access to a dataset provided by the Australian Bureau of Statistics which enables us to observe the activities of every firm in Australia. Using these data and appropriate econometric techniques, the study will examine the effect of a range of government policies designed to stimulate innovation and productivity growth. Read moreRead less
Inventories and the Business Cycle in Australia and the U.S. The project looks at the contribution that inventories make to business cycles in Australia and the U.S. It uses recent research by the chief investigator on measuring business cycles in order to explain how the presence of inventories in an economic system might influence activity in that system. It then adapts an existing model in the literature to quantify the role of inventories in the Australian and U.S business cycles.. It seeks ....Inventories and the Business Cycle in Australia and the U.S. The project looks at the contribution that inventories make to business cycles in Australia and the U.S. It uses recent research by the chief investigator on measuring business cycles in order to explain how the presence of inventories in an economic system might influence activity in that system. It then adapts an existing model in the literature to quantify the role of inventories in the Australian and U.S business cycles.. It seeks to answer a number of questions that have arisen in recent years over whether the business cycle is becoming longer owing to improved methods of inventory controlRead moreRead less
Inference in partially non-stationary time series models. Economic theories typically specify the long-run relationship between economic variables. However, researchers usually examine the long-run features of the data by fitting a restrictive class of models using criteria that have only proven useful for short-term forecasting. In this project we consider alternative models and modelling strategies that are appropriate for the study of the long-run. We also develop computer intensive (bootstra ....Inference in partially non-stationary time series models. Economic theories typically specify the long-run relationship between economic variables. However, researchers usually examine the long-run features of the data by fitting a restrictive class of models using criteria that have only proven useful for short-term forecasting. In this project we consider alternative models and modelling strategies that are appropriate for the study of the long-run. We also develop computer intensive (bootstrap) methods, which will provide a much-needed improvement over the existing (asymptotic) methods for making inference about the long-run. Our research will lead to more reliable models for long-term planning in business, industry and government.Read moreRead less
Vector ARMA Models and Macroeconomic Modelling: Some New Methodology and Algorithms. Economic variables are strongly related to each other, as well as being strongly related to their recent history. As a result, good dynamic multivariate models are crucial for effective policy making and forecasting in areas of vital national importance such as monetary and fiscal policy, environmental policy and tourism. Our project advances the frontiers of knowledge in multivariate time series modelling. The ....Vector ARMA Models and Macroeconomic Modelling: Some New Methodology and Algorithms. Economic variables are strongly related to each other, as well as being strongly related to their recent history. As a result, good dynamic multivariate models are crucial for effective policy making and forecasting in areas of vital national importance such as monetary and fiscal policy, environmental policy and tourism. Our project advances the frontiers of knowledge in multivariate time series modelling. The outcome of this project will be immediately useful for macroeconomic policy makers such as the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Treasury, and for industry bodies such as Tourism Australia. Read moreRead less
How do company announcements affect trading frequency in stocks? This project addresses the question of how financial markets respond to news by investigating how company announcements affect trading patterns in Australian banking stocks. Analysis will be based on new extensions to autoregressive conditional hazard (ACH) models, with research focussing on how to incorporate announcement variables into an ACH framework and how to modify standard ACH analysis to account for simultaneous transactio ....How do company announcements affect trading frequency in stocks? This project addresses the question of how financial markets respond to news by investigating how company announcements affect trading patterns in Australian banking stocks. Analysis will be based on new extensions to autoregressive conditional hazard (ACH) models, with research focussing on how to incorporate announcement variables into an ACH framework and how to modify standard ACH analysis to account for simultaneous transactions, market frictions and spillover effects. The results of this research will assist government and companies in choosing announcement times, aid traders in portfolio adjustment and will lead to a better understanding of the microstructure of Australian stock markets.Read moreRead less
The fundamental importance of foreign direct investment to Australia in the 21st century: Reforming treaty and dispute resolution practice. This project will evaluate the economic and legal risks associated with the Australian Government’s current policy on investor-state dispute settlement through multidisciplinary research, namely econometric modeling, empirical research through stakeholder surveys and interviews, as well as critical analysis of case law, treaties and regulatory approaches. Th ....The fundamental importance of foreign direct investment to Australia in the 21st century: Reforming treaty and dispute resolution practice. This project will evaluate the economic and legal risks associated with the Australian Government’s current policy on investor-state dispute settlement through multidisciplinary research, namely econometric modeling, empirical research through stakeholder surveys and interviews, as well as critical analysis of case law, treaties and regulatory approaches. The aim of this project is to identify optimal methods of investor-state dispute prevention, avoidance and resolution that efficiently cater to inbound and outbound investors as well as Australia as a whole. The goal is to promote a positive climate for investment inflows and outflows, while maintaining Australia's ability to take sovereign decisions on matters of public policy.Read moreRead less