Massively parallel algorithms for Bayesian inference and decision making. This project uses the graphical processing units of desktop computers, originally developed for games and video, to enhance substantially the quantitative tools used on a daily basis by economists. It will develop procedures and software to enhance the reliability of economic predictions and policy.
Natural resources and ecosystem services in productivity measurement. This project aims to understand sources of productivity growth through addressing theoretical and practical problems in the economics of natural resources and ecosystem services. It will study the valuation of non-renewable resources and ecosystem services, acknowledging their contributions to economic activity and the effect on national income from their depletion and degradation. It will develop approaches to incorporating n ....Natural resources and ecosystem services in productivity measurement. This project aims to understand sources of productivity growth through addressing theoretical and practical problems in the economics of natural resources and ecosystem services. It will study the valuation of non-renewable resources and ecosystem services, acknowledging their contributions to economic activity and the effect on national income from their depletion and degradation. It will develop approaches to incorporating natural resource depletion and degradation into productivity analysis with the aim of better informing environmental, innovation and industry policy.Read moreRead less
Productivity Measurement, Drivers and Trends: A New Analytical Framework. Significant problems exist in the measurement of productivity and hence its understanding, impeding informed policy formulation. This project aims to advance new concepts and methods for productivity measurement that have the potential to improve policy and national welfare, with special attention to: productivity in the mining industry, which has been a particular problem for Australia; the increased holding of precaution ....Productivity Measurement, Drivers and Trends: A New Analytical Framework. Significant problems exist in the measurement of productivity and hence its understanding, impeding informed policy formulation. This project aims to advance new concepts and methods for productivity measurement that have the potential to improve policy and national welfare, with special attention to: productivity in the mining industry, which has been a particular problem for Australia; the increased holding of precautionary cash balances by firms during financial crises, representing underutilised resources; examination of firm productivity dynamics, without assuming the possibility of disappearing technology capability that is used in standard models; and a more realistic approach to capitalisation of research and development and other intangible investments.Read moreRead less
Discovery Early Career Researcher Award - Grant ID: DE170100787
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$331,000.00
Summary
Misspecification in models of economic behaviour. This project aims to develop a robust method for estimation and inference with misspecified economic models. Economic models are designed to test hypotheses about economic behaviour and to estimate key parameters, but their validity and accuracy critically depend on the assumption that the model is correctly specified, which is often doubtful. This project will reparametrize the model to allow for misspecification. The project aims to help modell ....Misspecification in models of economic behaviour. This project aims to develop a robust method for estimation and inference with misspecified economic models. Economic models are designed to test hypotheses about economic behaviour and to estimate key parameters, but their validity and accuracy critically depend on the assumption that the model is correctly specified, which is often doubtful. This project will reparametrize the model to allow for misspecification. The project aims to help modellers produce results that better inform decision-makers and help them make more reliable decisions.Read moreRead less
The long term causal effects of Vietnam War era conscription on economic and social outcomes for Australian conscripts. The project will inform veterans' compensation, military and retirement income policies. A perennial policy issue is how best to re-integrate veterans into society. Our preliminary analysis suggests very different effects of conscription in Australia to the USA, particularly on employment. This may reflect different systems of benefits, which we will investigate. A greater unde ....The long term causal effects of Vietnam War era conscription on economic and social outcomes for Australian conscripts. The project will inform veterans' compensation, military and retirement income policies. A perennial policy issue is how best to re-integrate veterans into society. Our preliminary analysis suggests very different effects of conscription in Australia to the USA, particularly on employment. This may reflect different systems of benefits, which we will investigate. A greater understanding of the effects of conscription will also inform policy makers of the full cost to society of military service and participation in conflict. Since veterans are entitled to retirement pensions earlier than non-veterans, we also investigate the effects of benefit eligibility on employment outcomes amongst older men.Read moreRead less
The predictive, behavioural and economic forecasting performance of alternative credit risk and bankruptcy models: a global study. This study empirically evaluates a range of "new age" credit risk models using a large global sample of failed firms and bond ratings data. The study will provide a substantive body of empirical evidence to assist regulators, creditors, investors and other users assess the merits, strengths and limitations of alternative risk modelling approaches.
Large dynamic time-varying models for structural macroeconomic inference. This project aims to broaden the range of macroeconomic models that have an integrated capacity for both greater realism and efficiency in analysis. This approach will be applied to two contexts at the forefront of current macroeconomic research, the effects of noisy productivity signals on business cycles and the effects of fiscal policy shocks. Flexible macro-econometric models underpin accurate inference by economists ....Large dynamic time-varying models for structural macroeconomic inference. This project aims to broaden the range of macroeconomic models that have an integrated capacity for both greater realism and efficiency in analysis. This approach will be applied to two contexts at the forefront of current macroeconomic research, the effects of noisy productivity signals on business cycles and the effects of fiscal policy shocks. Flexible macro-econometric models underpin accurate inference by economists and policymakers and the project outputs should provide widespread and significant benefits by improving policy and boosting Australia’s comparative advantage.Read moreRead less
The Economic Measurement of Property Markets: Prices, Bubbles, Economic Growth and Productivity. In collaboration with property fund manager and investor CorVal, and with the participation of the industry leader in benchmarking, property research and metrics, IPD Australia and New Zealand, this project aims to examine the economic measurement of property markets. Mathematical and statistical models aim to be developed for exploiting a large quantity of data made available at aggregate (economy w ....The Economic Measurement of Property Markets: Prices, Bubbles, Economic Growth and Productivity. In collaboration with property fund manager and investor CorVal, and with the participation of the industry leader in benchmarking, property research and metrics, IPD Australia and New Zealand, this project aims to examine the economic measurement of property markets. Mathematical and statistical models aim to be developed for exploiting a large quantity of data made available at aggregate (economy wide) and disaggregate (local area government) levels. The findings aim to contribute to an improved understanding of property price bubbles, concepts of market disequilibrium, and the role of the property market as a source of economic growth and productivity.Read moreRead less
Discovery Early Career Researcher Award - Grant ID: DE120100748
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$375,000.00
Summary
Robust inference for behavioural models in economics and finance. The project will develop novel methodology to estimate behavioural models in economics and finance, which may give better insights on economic development. Knowledge gained from this project will be useful for Australian industries, banks, investment funds and the government for the effective formulation of their business strategies and policies.
Pooling econometric models for prediction and decision making. The project develops methods for combining econometric models with the goal of improving prediction. It applies these methods to macroeconomic models used to improve monetary policy and to asset return models used to improve financial risk management.