Improving likelihood estimators: theory and applications to analysing productivity and efficiency and forecasting of probability of economic recession. This project aims to improve one of the most popular statistical methods to empower applied researchers with a more reliable analytical tool. This project will develop mathematical theory and use it to analyse patterns of economic growth, productivity and efficiency of countries. This can be used to forecast probability of entering economic reces ....Improving likelihood estimators: theory and applications to analysing productivity and efficiency and forecasting of probability of economic recession. This project aims to improve one of the most popular statistical methods to empower applied researchers with a more reliable analytical tool. This project will develop mathematical theory and use it to analyse patterns of economic growth, productivity and efficiency of countries. This can be used to forecast probability of entering economic recession, with a focus on Australia.Read moreRead less
Reliability of purchasing power parities from the World Bank. This project aims to provide an econometric framework to estimate purchasing power parities (PPPs) and a method to compute standard errors associated with the World Bank’s International Comparison Programme (ICP)’s PPPs. The ICP regularly compiles and publishes estimates of PPPs of currencies and real incomes. These results are used for study of global inequality and poverty; macroeconomic analysis; the Human Development Index; and cr ....Reliability of purchasing power parities from the World Bank. This project aims to provide an econometric framework to estimate purchasing power parities (PPPs) and a method to compute standard errors associated with the World Bank’s International Comparison Programme (ICP)’s PPPs. The ICP regularly compiles and publishes estimates of PPPs of currencies and real incomes. These results are used for study of global inequality and poverty; macroeconomic analysis; the Human Development Index; and cross-country productivity comparisons. However, no estimates of ICP PPPs’ reliability are available. Results from this project are likely to improve the quality of widely used data sets including the Penn World Tables and the University of Queensland International Comparison Database relevant to banking.Read moreRead less
Modelling Income Distributions over Space and Time: 1985-2010. The aim of this project is to develop and use interpolation and extrapolation methods, designed to overcome data scarcity, to estimate annual income distributions for countries, regions and the world for the period 1985 to 2010, facilitating measurement and comparison of changes in inequality, per capita income, poverty, and pro-poor growth, at national, regional and global levels. Reliable estimates of these welfare measures provide ....Modelling Income Distributions over Space and Time: 1985-2010. The aim of this project is to develop and use interpolation and extrapolation methods, designed to overcome data scarcity, to estimate annual income distributions for countries, regions and the world for the period 1985 to 2010, facilitating measurement and comparison of changes in inequality, per capita income, poverty, and pro-poor growth, at national, regional and global levels. Reliable estimates of these welfare measures provide valuable information for policy advisors and other researchers interested in growth and welfare of society.Read moreRead less
Large dynamic time-varying models for structural macroeconomic inference. This project aims to broaden the range of macroeconomic models that have an integrated capacity for both greater realism and efficiency in analysis. This approach will be applied to two contexts at the forefront of current macroeconomic research, the effects of noisy productivity signals on business cycles and the effects of fiscal policy shocks. Flexible macro-econometric models underpin accurate inference by economists ....Large dynamic time-varying models for structural macroeconomic inference. This project aims to broaden the range of macroeconomic models that have an integrated capacity for both greater realism and efficiency in analysis. This approach will be applied to two contexts at the forefront of current macroeconomic research, the effects of noisy productivity signals on business cycles and the effects of fiscal policy shocks. Flexible macro-econometric models underpin accurate inference by economists and policymakers and the project outputs should provide widespread and significant benefits by improving policy and boosting Australia’s comparative advantage.Read moreRead less
Predicting the value and use of urban land. This project aims to develop a comprehensive, robust and user-friendly set of modelling tools to predict land values more accurately. Accurate predictions of land values reduce state government revenue risks and improve resource management. The expected outcome of this project is the development of modelling tools which, can be used to study land use allocation, infrastructure delivery and government taxation revenue. This should provide significant be ....Predicting the value and use of urban land. This project aims to develop a comprehensive, robust and user-friendly set of modelling tools to predict land values more accurately. Accurate predictions of land values reduce state government revenue risks and improve resource management. The expected outcome of this project is the development of modelling tools which, can be used to study land use allocation, infrastructure delivery and government taxation revenue. This should provide significant benefits such as the development of new econometric theory, advanced computational methods and evidence-based guidelines for policymakers.Read moreRead less
Estimation of the continuous piecewise linear model and macroeconomic applications. Relationships between economic variables are often characterised by non-linearities. This project develops a method to analyse a type of non-linearity that is frequently encountered in economics and uses this method to study four specific applications concerning the dynamics of inflation, growth, and the exchange rate.
Econometric modelling of housing prices and their relationship to climate adaptation issues. The path to climate adaptation in urban communities is directly related to housing infrastructure. The project develops improved and new econometric methods for the prediction of property prices and their components, land and structure, and it will provide estimates of the interplay between flooding risk and property values.