The great divergence, long-run growth and unified theories of economic growth. This project investigates why income has been close to subsistence levels for most of human history, and in particular, the factors that were responsible for take-off in Europe two centuries ago and then later in other countries. It is expected that both major and minor technological innovations have played a critical role in take-off.
Growth, IQ, diseases, and the great demographic transition. This project investigates firstly whether poor health and malnutrition among young children was a cause of severe cognitive impairment in the pre-industrialised West and in developing countries today, and secondly whether this has been a major factor behind the large disparities in income and growth over the 150 years since industrialisation.
Inequality, Trade, and Technology. This project aims to improve our understanding of the causes of rising income inequality in the world economy and in Australia since the early 1980s. We focus on the increasing building costs and imports of machinery as significant contributors to the increasing inequality. We hypothesize 1) that the increasing costs of buildings have reduced the demand for workers that are complementary to non-residential building capital; thus, reducing real wages; and 2) tha ....Inequality, Trade, and Technology. This project aims to improve our understanding of the causes of rising income inequality in the world economy and in Australia since the early 1980s. We focus on the increasing building costs and imports of machinery as significant contributors to the increasing inequality. We hypothesize 1) that the increasing costs of buildings have reduced the demand for workers that are complementary to non-residential building capital; thus, reducing real wages; and 2) that the marked increase in imports of machinery since the 1960s has reduced the demand for unskilled labour and widened the employment and wage gap between skilled and unskilled labour. Both factors may have driven the increasing inequality in Australia.
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Inequality and economic growth. This project aims to identify forces driving inequality. Piketty’s influential book, Capital in the 21st Century, stimulated research on inequality to address the increased public concern about inequality and its side-effects such as reduced growth. Piketty proposes three laws that explain and predict inequality paths over time, but there is no empirical evidence or theoretical foundations for these laws. This project will examine Piketty’s laws and investigate fa ....Inequality and economic growth. This project aims to identify forces driving inequality. Piketty’s influential book, Capital in the 21st Century, stimulated research on inequality to address the increased public concern about inequality and its side-effects such as reduced growth. Piketty proposes three laws that explain and predict inequality paths over time, but there is no empirical evidence or theoretical foundations for these laws. This project will examine Piketty’s laws and investigate factors that shape inequality and its relation to growth. This knowledge should enable Australian governments to reduce inequality and benefit economic growth, thereby reducing disadvantage and building stronger, more resilient communities.Read moreRead less
Sustaining India's economic transformation: challenges, prospects and implications for Australia and the Pacific region. India's emergence from economic stagnation is beginning to have a profound impact on the world economy, including Australia. This project aims to investigate the sources of India's growth and the reforms needed to ensure that growth generates reductions in poverty and ensures equity and political stability.
Government, Institutions and Economic Activity: A Long Term Analysis. Using national and regional data for 30 to 50 countries over multiple centuries, this project will examine the effects of itemised government expenditure and revenue on productivity, investment, saving, labour force participation and research and development. The results are expected to shed light on the macroeconomic effects of different revenue and spending categories (education, transfers, and so on). In addition, the proje ....Government, Institutions and Economic Activity: A Long Term Analysis. Using national and regional data for 30 to 50 countries over multiple centuries, this project will examine the effects of itemised government expenditure and revenue on productivity, investment, saving, labour force participation and research and development. The results are expected to shed light on the macroeconomic effects of different revenue and spending categories (education, transfers, and so on). In addition, the project aims to determine which factors have been responsible for the increase of government size over the past two centuries. The results aim to further reveal which government revenue and expenditure items are most conducive to economic welfare and growth.Read moreRead less
Inequality of health, wealth and education in China. This project aims to examine whether China’s recent increase in income inequality is associated with increased inequalities in other well-being related outcomes: health, education and wealth. It also aims to identify the factors associated with increases in inequalities. Significant increases in income and wealth inequality could have detrimental effects on economic and political stability. The expected outcomes from this project will help to ....Inequality of health, wealth and education in China. This project aims to examine whether China’s recent increase in income inequality is associated with increased inequalities in other well-being related outcomes: health, education and wealth. It also aims to identify the factors associated with increases in inequalities. Significant increases in income and wealth inequality could have detrimental effects on economic and political stability. The expected outcomes from this project will help to identify policies useful in addressing inequalities and enhancing stability within Australia's important trading partner.Read moreRead less
Improving likelihood estimators: theory and applications to analysing productivity and efficiency and forecasting of probability of economic recession. This project aims to improve one of the most popular statistical methods to empower applied researchers with a more reliable analytical tool. This project will develop mathematical theory and use it to analyse patterns of economic growth, productivity and efficiency of countries. This can be used to forecast probability of entering economic reces ....Improving likelihood estimators: theory and applications to analysing productivity and efficiency and forecasting of probability of economic recession. This project aims to improve one of the most popular statistical methods to empower applied researchers with a more reliable analytical tool. This project will develop mathematical theory and use it to analyse patterns of economic growth, productivity and efficiency of countries. This can be used to forecast probability of entering economic recession, with a focus on Australia.Read moreRead less
Economic Growth and Real Exchange Rates. Exchange rate movements are important elements of Australia's economic environment. Protectionist interests in the US and Europe, constrained by WTO trade rules, accuse East Asian economies of deliberate undervaluation. While exchange rate movements are not readily predictable in the short run, long run changes in underlying real exchange rates are amenable to economic analysis using structural models. The clearer understanding of these forces, toward ....Economic Growth and Real Exchange Rates. Exchange rate movements are important elements of Australia's economic environment. Protectionist interests in the US and Europe, constrained by WTO trade rules, accuse East Asian economies of deliberate undervaluation. While exchange rate movements are not readily predictable in the short run, long run changes in underlying real exchange rates are amenable to economic analysis using structural models. The clearer understanding of these forces, toward which this project is directed, will better guide investment in the region, including in Australia, and more importantly, it will better inform future policy debates surrounding currency movements.Read moreRead less
Economic growth and globalisation: identifying costs and benefits. Globalisation provides opportunities to stimulate economic development and growth, but it may also impose costs on national economies. This project will utilise economic theory and econometric analysis to identify the principal sources and the magnitude of such benefits and costs. It will focus on three areas: trade in consumer goods; trade in capital goods; and the importation of knowledge and technology. The results will in ....Economic growth and globalisation: identifying costs and benefits. Globalisation provides opportunities to stimulate economic development and growth, but it may also impose costs on national economies. This project will utilise economic theory and econometric analysis to identify the principal sources and the magnitude of such benefits and costs. It will focus on three areas: trade in consumer goods; trade in capital goods; and the importation of knowledge and technology. The results will inform national policy-making in the areas of trade policy, industry policy, education and R&D.Read moreRead less