Modelling the APEC Digital Divide. Study of private sector motivation for the uptake of ICT is helpful in formulating regulatory and commercial responses to foster growth of competitive information-using and information-producing industries. The project will help clarify the relative benefits of production and use of ICT. Additionally, in an APEC context, analysis of the digital divide will inform policy appropriate to enhancing Australia's contribution to the region. The general purpose infor ....Modelling the APEC Digital Divide. Study of private sector motivation for the uptake of ICT is helpful in formulating regulatory and commercial responses to foster growth of competitive information-using and information-producing industries. The project will help clarify the relative benefits of production and use of ICT. Additionally, in an APEC context, analysis of the digital divide will inform policy appropriate to enhancing Australia's contribution to the region. The general purpose information technology of the Internet network is fast evolving into the enabling technology of choice for innovation and creative applications of a platform for communication and electronic transactions.Read moreRead less
Modelling Food Expenditure, Analysing Nutrient Security, Measuring Hunger and Calculating Purchasing Power Parity: Methodological Advances with Policy Applications. The analysis of consumption changes in selected Asian countries will throw light on Australia's trade potential, especially with one of the fastest growing countries.
More informed debate on the role of trade and aid in reducing hunger and poverty.Following the 2000 Millenium summit and the step up of Australian developmental aid, ....Modelling Food Expenditure, Analysing Nutrient Security, Measuring Hunger and Calculating Purchasing Power Parity: Methodological Advances with Policy Applications. The analysis of consumption changes in selected Asian countries will throw light on Australia's trade potential, especially with one of the fastest growing countries.
More informed debate on the role of trade and aid in reducing hunger and poverty.Following the 2000 Millenium summit and the step up of Australian developmental aid, the subject has returned to the centre stage in policy discussions.
The systematic use of unit value information available elsewhere, but currently lacking in ABS data, will help the latter in improving its HES.
Contribute to "understanding our region and the world"(Key Priority Goal in Research Priority 4 of ARC).
Provide data sets for use in Australian RHD dissertations .
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Econometric estimation and analysis of country, regional and global income distributions. The project will provide valuable information on characteristics of the income distribution for Australia, and the distributions for countries of socio-economic significance to Australia. The findings will enable Australian government and non-government organisations and international agencies to assess the effects of various policies such as those designed to reduce world poverty. The project can help Aust ....Econometric estimation and analysis of country, regional and global income distributions. The project will provide valuable information on characteristics of the income distribution for Australia, and the distributions for countries of socio-economic significance to Australia. The findings will enable Australian government and non-government organisations and international agencies to assess the effects of various policies such as those designed to reduce world poverty. The project can help Australia understand the most immediate needs of countries in the region, information that is useful for formulating Australian policy responses that can alleviate poverty and lead to improved living standards in the region, thereby creating a harmonious and safer environment within the Asia-Pacific region.Read moreRead less
Regional Comparisons of Prices, Income and Growth in Australia. We will measure how much the cost of living and rates of inflation differ across the eight capital cities in Australia, and then test whether real per capita income levels across cities are converging or diverging over time. To make such comparisons, the ABS's databases on each capital city must first be harmonized. While doing this we will review the ABS's current procedures for data construction and quality assessment. A further a ....Regional Comparisons of Prices, Income and Growth in Australia. We will measure how much the cost of living and rates of inflation differ across the eight capital cities in Australia, and then test whether real per capita income levels across cities are converging or diverging over time. To make such comparisons, the ABS's databases on each capital city must first be harmonized. While doing this we will review the ABS's current procedures for data construction and quality assessment. A further aim is to show how statistical modelling using spanning-tree methods can resolve the conflict that arises for price indexes constructed on panel data sets between temporal and spatial consistency.Read moreRead less
A Bayesian State Space Methodology for Forecasting Stock Market Volatility and Associated Time-varying Risk Premia. Accurate prediction of stock market volatility is critical for effective financial risk management. Along with information on volatility embedded in historical stock market returns, the prices of options written on the underlying stocks also reflect the option market's assessment of future volatility. This project will exploit this dual data source in a completely new way, using it ....A Bayesian State Space Methodology for Forecasting Stock Market Volatility and Associated Time-varying Risk Premia. Accurate prediction of stock market volatility is critical for effective financial risk management. Along with information on volatility embedded in historical stock market returns, the prices of options written on the underlying stocks also reflect the option market's assessment of future volatility. This project will exploit this dual data source in a completely new way, using it to produce forecasts of both volatility itself and the premia factored into asset prices as a result of traders' perceptions of volatility risk. State-of-the-art statistical methods will be used to produce up-dates of the probability of extreme volatility and/or extreme risk aversion, as new market data becomes available each trading day.Read moreRead less
Non-parametric estimation of forecast distributions in non-Gaussian state space models. The production of accurate forecasts is arguably one of the most challenging tasks in economics, business and finance, where data often assume strictly positive, integer or binary values, or are characterized by many extreme values far from the average. This project will produce new, state-of-the-art statistical methods for generating accurate estimates of the probabilities attached to different possible futu ....Non-parametric estimation of forecast distributions in non-Gaussian state space models. The production of accurate forecasts is arguably one of the most challenging tasks in economics, business and finance, where data often assume strictly positive, integer or binary values, or are characterized by many extreme values far from the average. This project will produce new, state-of-the-art statistical methods for generating accurate estimates of the probabilities attached to different possible future values of such variables. Although far-ranging in scope, the techniques advocated will have particular impact in the financial sphere, where the concept of future risk is inextricably linked to the probability of occurrence of extreme values and, hence, to the future probability distribution of the financial variable. Read moreRead less
New Approaches to the Analysis of Count Time Series. The focus of this proposal is on the analysis of data that enumerate events over time. Occurrences of such count data abound in economics and business, examples being observations on insurance claims, loan defaults and individual product demand. This project develops a suite of innovative methods for modelling and predicting event counts. The methods explicitly accommodate both the discreteness of the data and possible complexities in its evo ....New Approaches to the Analysis of Count Time Series. The focus of this proposal is on the analysis of data that enumerate events over time. Occurrences of such count data abound in economics and business, examples being observations on insurance claims, loan defaults and individual product demand. This project develops a suite of innovative methods for modelling and predicting event counts. The methods explicitly accommodate both the discreteness of the data and possible complexities in its evolution over time. In so doing, they enable both accurate inferences regarding the dynamic structure of the data to be drawn and accurate forecasts of future event counts to be produced.Read moreRead less
New estimation and testing issues in nonlinear time series econometrics. The outcomes of this project will not only complement but also enhance the existing strengths of Australian researchers in the field of econometrics. The outcomes are also expected to help stabilise the national financial market for more accurate forecasts. It is also expected that the outcomes will provide novel models to respond to climate change and variability and to provide accurate warming estimates for improving the ....New estimation and testing issues in nonlinear time series econometrics. The outcomes of this project will not only complement but also enhance the existing strengths of Australian researchers in the field of econometrics. The outcomes are also expected to help stabilise the national financial market for more accurate forecasts. It is also expected that the outcomes will provide novel models to respond to climate change and variability and to provide accurate warming estimates for improving the policy making process.Read moreRead less
Fractional Integration, Power Laws and Econometric Models: Some Methodological and Theoretical Developments. The fundamental objectives of this project are to: (i) Extend
current econometric practice and consider the use of power laws as
a basis for the construction of a more flexible and realistic
class of models for the analysis of economic and financial time
series. (ii) To develop inferential techniques appropriate for the
modelling of dynamic econometric systems that incorporate
struc ....Fractional Integration, Power Laws and Econometric Models: Some Methodological and Theoretical Developments. The fundamental objectives of this project are to: (i) Extend
current econometric practice and consider the use of power laws as
a basis for the construction of a more flexible and realistic
class of models for the analysis of economic and financial time
series. (ii) To develop inferential techniques appropriate for the
modelling of dynamic econometric systems that incorporate
structure characterized by power laws. This will be achieved by
building upon the class of fractionally integrated processes. New
econometric models and methodologies for the analysis of
non-stationarity series will be developed, along with the
associated theoretical results.Read moreRead less
House Prices in Australia: A Hedonic Analysis. House prices are an important input to monetary policy since they impact directly on inflation and may be a source of speculative bubbles. The Governor of the Reserve Bank, however, recently described housing as the ``weakest link in all the price data.'' This project will attempt to resolve this problem. The resulting indexes should be of considerable interest to the Reserve Bank, the media, home owners, the real estate industry, and enhance the re ....House Prices in Australia: A Hedonic Analysis. House prices are an important input to monetary policy since they impact directly on inflation and may be a source of speculative bubbles. The Governor of the Reserve Bank, however, recently described housing as the ``weakest link in all the price data.'' This project will attempt to resolve this problem. The resulting indexes should be of considerable interest to the Reserve Bank, the media, home owners, the real estate industry, and enhance the reputation of Australian universities. They will also quantify the extent of the burden imposed on young people by rising house prices, and its consequent strain on society.Read moreRead less