State-contingent analysis of productivity, efficiency and innovation. Productivity growth is a fundamental precondition for sustainable improvements in living standards. The main drivers of productivity growth are technological innovation and improvements in the efficiency of resource use. Effective public policy in this area requires identification of these components. This project develops improved productivity measurement methods that are applicable in economic environments characterised b ....State-contingent analysis of productivity, efficiency and innovation. Productivity growth is a fundamental precondition for sustainable improvements in living standards. The main drivers of productivity growth are technological innovation and improvements in the efficiency of resource use. Effective public policy in this area requires identification of these components. This project develops improved productivity measurement methods that are applicable in economic environments characterised by production and/or demand uncertainty. The methods will be used to obtain improved estimates of rates of innovation and changes in the relative efficiency of selected Australian enterprises. The empirical results will inform National Competition Policy and the process of microeconomic reform.Read moreRead less
Nonlinear Econometric Modelling: A Complex Systems Perspective. It is becoming increasingly accepted that economic systems are both complex and adaptive. However, this introduces a range of problems in constructing, estimating and testing economic models using time series data. In this project, this problem will be addressed through the formulation and implementation of a new methodology and associated techniques. These techniques will allow a researcher to use information obtained from a set o ....Nonlinear Econometric Modelling: A Complex Systems Perspective. It is becoming increasingly accepted that economic systems are both complex and adaptive. However, this introduces a range of problems in constructing, estimating and testing economic models using time series data. In this project, this problem will be addressed through the formulation and implementation of a new methodology and associated techniques. These techniques will allow a researcher to use information obtained from a set of nonlinearity tests to determine which type of nonlinear model provides the best representation of a data generating mechanism. Selected high frequency financial and macroeconomic data (for the US and Australia) will be used in the study. This research is intended to change the direction and emphasis of econometric modelling and promises to have a fundamental impact on forecasting and policy evaluation methods.
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Closing the Gap Between Theory and Data in Macroeconometrics. This project aims to bring econometric models (the empirical vehicle for inference) and economic models (the theory) closer together. A new model is intended to be proposed that will address a significant issue with the interpretation of the outputs of the econometric models. As a first contribution, the project is expected to develop the model and an inferential framework for this model using probability theory on manifolds. In a sec ....Closing the Gap Between Theory and Data in Macroeconometrics. This project aims to bring econometric models (the empirical vehicle for inference) and economic models (the theory) closer together. A new model is intended to be proposed that will address a significant issue with the interpretation of the outputs of the econometric models. As a first contribution, the project is expected to develop the model and an inferential framework for this model using probability theory on manifolds. In a second contribution, it is expected to construct an algorithm to permit inference leading to outputs useful to policy analysts. The model is intended to be parsimonious, which facilitates the development of a time-varying version to allow the model to evolve with the economy and provide better policy guidance.Read moreRead less
Computing probabilities of theories where these probabilities vary over time with applications in macroeconomics. This project will present a method to produce empirically based policy advice that accounts for the changing economic environment and that allows for a range of assumptions about how the economy works. The research and training will place Australia at the forefront of empirical macroeconomic research and strengthen international research networks. Policy making will be improved as: i ....Computing probabilities of theories where these probabilities vary over time with applications in macroeconomics. This project will present a method to produce empirically based policy advice that accounts for the changing economic environment and that allows for a range of assumptions about how the economy works. The research and training will place Australia at the forefront of empirical macroeconomic research and strengthen international research networks. Policy making will be improved as: it will use information that is more robust to false assumptions; it will quickly incorporate new information; and we will understand better why certain policies did or did not work at different times in the past. The research will impact upon other sciences such as physics and engineering that use the same underlying tools far more than do economists.Read moreRead less
Incorporating the gains from healthy ageing in health system planning. This project aims to develop evidence-based fit-for-purpose economic models for planning future capacity for public health programmes by developing new methodological approaches incorporating dynamic changes in health and health risks over time. The project expects to generate new knowledge on the impact of improvements in physical and mental well-being on funding and capacity requirements for public programmes to meet tomorr ....Incorporating the gains from healthy ageing in health system planning. This project aims to develop evidence-based fit-for-purpose economic models for planning future capacity for public health programmes by developing new methodological approaches incorporating dynamic changes in health and health risks over time. The project expects to generate new knowledge on the impact of improvements in physical and mental well-being on funding and capacity requirements for public programmes to meet tomorrow’s needs for care instead of projecting yesterday’s use of care. Expected outcomes include new economic models responsive to changes in population characteristics, conditions and contexts. The proposed research should provide significant benefits through improving efficiency of public investments in health.Read moreRead less
Nature futures: mapping pathways to prosperity for people and nature. Population growth, consumption and trade are direct socio-economic drivers of land use change and climate change, which determine where species can persist. The UN Sustainable Development Goals and national policies acknowledge the dependence of people on nature and the impact of socio-economic drivers on nature. However, few analyses of impacts on nature explicitly incorporate socio-economic drivers. Utilising a novel modelli ....Nature futures: mapping pathways to prosperity for people and nature. Population growth, consumption and trade are direct socio-economic drivers of land use change and climate change, which determine where species can persist. The UN Sustainable Development Goals and national policies acknowledge the dependence of people on nature and the impact of socio-economic drivers on nature. However, few analyses of impacts on nature explicitly incorporate socio-economic drivers. Utilising a novel modelling framework and high-performance computing we will integrate economic, land use and biodiversity models to evaluate: (i) policies and incentives for increasing national vegetation cover for carbon sequestration and habitat, and (ii) global risks to nature posed by land use change under future geopolitical scenarios.Read moreRead less
The Consistency of Price Regulation of Infrastructure Businesses across Australian Jurisdictions. The spread of regulation across the majority of the economy necessitates that regulatory policy should be consistent across jurisdictions and industries. This project would offer policy and regulatory institutions quantitative analysis of the consistency of regulatory decisions across Australia. This research would develop a new database that would maintain and supply details on regulatory decision ....The Consistency of Price Regulation of Infrastructure Businesses across Australian Jurisdictions. The spread of regulation across the majority of the economy necessitates that regulatory policy should be consistent across jurisdictions and industries. This project would offer policy and regulatory institutions quantitative analysis of the consistency of regulatory decisions across Australia. This research would develop a new database that would maintain and supply details on regulatory decisions across jurisdictions and industries. This project would enable the new Australian Centre of Regulatory Economics (ACORE) to supply independent database and quantitative analysis from an open, fully documented, scholarly environment to Australia's policy and regulatory agencies and its regulated firms.Read moreRead less
Population Ageing and National Housing Demand in Australia. This project seeks to determine the likely impact of population ageing on the demand for housing in Australia. A seminal study for the U.S. predicted that the relative demand for, and therefore price of, housing will fall substantially in the next two or three decades due to population ageing. If this were to occur in Australia, it could have a significant impact on personal wealth, the national saving rate, employment and economic welf ....Population Ageing and National Housing Demand in Australia. This project seeks to determine the likely impact of population ageing on the demand for housing in Australia. A seminal study for the U.S. predicted that the relative demand for, and therefore price of, housing will fall substantially in the next two or three decades due to population ageing. If this were to occur in Australia, it could have a significant impact on personal wealth, the national saving rate, employment and economic welfare. This question will be addressed by extending two different types of models - an analytical model of optimal national saving and an econometric model of housing demand.Read moreRead less
Consistent Space-Time Comparisons of Real Income. The project will result in internationally comparable macroeconomic data, spanning all years since 1950 and covering in excess of 120 countries. The Australian government, private sector and academic researchers will find from this project a wealth of economic information on Australia, its geographical neighbours and trading partners which can be used in assessing Australia's economic performance and role in a global context. Results from this pr ....Consistent Space-Time Comparisons of Real Income. The project will result in internationally comparable macroeconomic data, spanning all years since 1950 and covering in excess of 120 countries. The Australian government, private sector and academic researchers will find from this project a wealth of economic information on Australia, its geographical neighbours and trading partners which can be used in assessing Australia's economic performance and role in a global context. Results from this project will provide international organisations, multinationals and researchers with a much improved data set, to those currently available, thus enhancing the reputation of the research team, the University of Queensland and Australia. Read moreRead less
Construction of Consistent Panels of Real Gross Domestic Product and its Components at Current and Constant Prices. The Australian government, international organizations, private sector and academic researchers will find from this project a wealth of economic information on Australia, its geographical neighbours and trading partners which can be used in assessing Australia's economic performance and role in a global context. This project will result in internationally comparable real income, co ....Construction of Consistent Panels of Real Gross Domestic Product and its Components at Current and Constant Prices. The Australian government, international organizations, private sector and academic researchers will find from this project a wealth of economic information on Australia, its geographical neighbours and trading partners which can be used in assessing Australia's economic performance and role in a global context. This project will result in internationally comparable real income, consumption, investment and government expenditures spanning all years since 1950 and covering over 180 countries based on an econometric methodology that is superior to those currently in use. Successful completion of the project will place the research team, the University of Queensland and Australia on the international map.Read moreRead less