Helping Central Banks Measure Unobserved Variables Using Real-time Forecasts. The project addresses structural measurement problems confronted routinely by central bankers. The techniques developed, and the estimates provided, will aid directly the Partner Organisations (the Reserve Bank of Australia, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and Norges Bank) and other central banks in formulating monetary policy. The analysis will allow interest rates in Australia and elsewhere to be set with greater pre ....Helping Central Banks Measure Unobserved Variables Using Real-time Forecasts. The project addresses structural measurement problems confronted routinely by central bankers. The techniques developed, and the estimates provided, will aid directly the Partner Organisations (the Reserve Bank of Australia, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and Norges Bank) and other central banks in formulating monetary policy. The analysis will allow interest rates in Australia and elsewhere to be set with greater precision. The techniques developed in this project will facilitate the understanding and communication of monetary policy within the central banks concerned, and enhance communication of monetary policy strategy to the public.Read moreRead less
Financing aged care in Australia: Mitigating fiscal gaps and maintaining intergenerational equity. Aged care has been identified as a significant contributor to the growing fiscal problems predicted for Australian government finances during the next 10 to 20 years. This project will develop the cutting-edge modelling tools needed to allow Australia to make informed decisions about possible reforms in aged care financing. It will create significant national benefits by allowing detailed assessmen ....Financing aged care in Australia: Mitigating fiscal gaps and maintaining intergenerational equity. Aged care has been identified as a significant contributor to the growing fiscal problems predicted for Australian government finances during the next 10 to 20 years. This project will develop the cutting-edge modelling tools needed to allow Australia to make informed decisions about possible reforms in aged care financing. It will create significant national benefits by allowing detailed assessment of the distributional impact of a wide range of possible reforms, including how the outcomes of any policy change will affect disadvantaged sections of our society, whether different generations will be fairly treated, and the impact by gender.Read moreRead less
Towards a superannuation system fit for the future. Towards a superannuation system fit for the future. This project aims to develop a stochastic superannuation model and propose alternative post retirement solutions, using data-led understanding of savings habits. Funding for the increasing cost of the growing older population will, if not modelled, forecast and managed adequately, swamp all other welfare and state funded costs. To manage older age costs adequately, governments need to encourag ....Towards a superannuation system fit for the future. Towards a superannuation system fit for the future. This project aims to develop a stochastic superannuation model and propose alternative post retirement solutions, using data-led understanding of savings habits. Funding for the increasing cost of the growing older population will, if not modelled, forecast and managed adequately, swamp all other welfare and state funded costs. To manage older age costs adequately, governments need to encourage people to save and provide ways people can save—but need to better understand how people save money for their old age. This research is expected to enable the “superannuation change“ necessary for the superannuation system to remain sustainable and fund retirees to live well.Read moreRead less
Regional Dimensions: New Models for Analysis of the Spatial Effects of Policy, Socio-Demographic and Economic Changes. This project aims to substantially improve the decision-support tools available to State and Territory governments by providing them with, first, far more detailed small area data than has previously been available, via the creation of a synthetic small area household database and, second, with the capacity to assess the current and future impact of possible policy reforms and l ....Regional Dimensions: New Models for Analysis of the Spatial Effects of Policy, Socio-Demographic and Economic Changes. This project aims to substantially improve the decision-support tools available to State and Territory governments by providing them with, first, far more detailed small area data than has previously been available, via the creation of a synthetic small area household database and, second, with the capacity to assess the current and future impact of possible policy reforms and likely social, demographic and economic changes at the small area level, through the construction of microsimulation models on top of the synthetic household data.Read moreRead less
Developing a responsive regulatory system for Australia's small corporations. Small corporations employ approximately 50% of Australia's 10.5 million employed persons (ABS: Nov 2007). Promoting and maintaining small corporations is vital to the health of the Australian economy and the well being of society. This research will strengthen Australia's social and economic fabric by identifying, in consultation with regulators, industry leaders, government, the ideal regulatory environment for Aust ....Developing a responsive regulatory system for Australia's small corporations. Small corporations employ approximately 50% of Australia's 10.5 million employed persons (ABS: Nov 2007). Promoting and maintaining small corporations is vital to the health of the Australian economy and the well being of society. This research will strengthen Australia's social and economic fabric by identifying, in consultation with regulators, industry leaders, government, the ideal regulatory environment for Australia's small corporations. A responsive regulatory framework will enable small corporations to conduct business more efficiently and profitably allowing for and creating structures and processes for encouraging and managing innovation creativity in this vital sector.Read moreRead less
Assessing the Social and Fiscal Policy Implications of an Ageing Population. The 2002 Treasury Inter-Generational Report predicted major social and fiscal challenges during the next 40 years as a result of population ageing. Unlike Europe, the US and Canada, Australia has not yet developed the modelling tools to help it assess the current and future distributional consequences of the required forthcoming changes in social and fiscal policy. This project will develop the necessary modelling infra ....Assessing the Social and Fiscal Policy Implications of an Ageing Population. The 2002 Treasury Inter-Generational Report predicted major social and fiscal challenges during the next 40 years as a result of population ageing. Unlike Europe, the US and Canada, Australia has not yet developed the modelling tools to help it assess the current and future distributional consequences of the required forthcoming changes in social and fiscal policy. This project will develop the necessary modelling infrastructure for the Commonwealth and for Australia. It will create a sophisticated decision support capacity that can be used to assess the long-term impact of policy change and the likely future retirement incomes and other characteristics of Australians.Read moreRead less
Care Needs, Costs and the Capacity for Self-Provision: Detailed Regional Projections for Older Australians to 2020. Government is starting to address the policy challenges associated with population ageing and the future needs of the ageing baby boomers. At the moment, Australia does not have adequate strategic planning and decision-support tools for forecasting the future demand for care services by older Australians; the likely cost of such services; and the financial capacity of older Austral ....Care Needs, Costs and the Capacity for Self-Provision: Detailed Regional Projections for Older Australians to 2020. Government is starting to address the policy challenges associated with population ageing and the future needs of the ageing baby boomers. At the moment, Australia does not have adequate strategic planning and decision-support tools for forecasting the future demand for care services by older Australians; the likely cost of such services; and the financial capacity of older Australians to bear a greater share of these costs. This project therefore aims to develop a spatial microsimulation model to provide detailed regional projections for older Australians up to the year 2020 to help inform and assist with possible responses to these increasingly pressing social issues.Read moreRead less
Modelling the lifetime social and economic impacts of fragile x syndrome and the benefits of early diagnosis and intervention. This project falls within the National Research Priority, promoting and maintaining good health, through a healthy start to life and strengthening of social and economic outcomes over the course of life. Fragile X is a group of associated genetic disorders affecting individuals across generations. It is the most common identifiable cause of inherited intellectual disabil ....Modelling the lifetime social and economic impacts of fragile x syndrome and the benefits of early diagnosis and intervention. This project falls within the National Research Priority, promoting and maintaining good health, through a healthy start to life and strengthening of social and economic outcomes over the course of life. Fragile X is a group of associated genetic disorders affecting individuals across generations. It is the most common identifiable cause of inherited intellectual disability. About 1 in 4000 males and 1 in 8000 females have Fragile X, but up to 1 in 250 females are carriers. For the first time in Australia, this study will reveal the social and economic impacts on the individual, on their family members who are often the lifelong carers, and on the Australian community, and show how these impacts may be minimised through early intervention.Read moreRead less
A New Phase and New Issues of Rural-Urban Migration in China. China’s urbanisation has come to a turning point. The large pool of rural young workers (16-25 years of age), which fed the industrialisation needs of the 1990s and 2000s, has exhausted. Future growth needs to rely on the increase in the length of stay of the existing migrants and the increase in older new migrants. Due to this shift, the institutional restrictions, which deter family migration, become the key challenge. This project ....A New Phase and New Issues of Rural-Urban Migration in China. China’s urbanisation has come to a turning point. The large pool of rural young workers (16-25 years of age), which fed the industrialisation needs of the 1990s and 2000s, has exhausted. Future growth needs to rely on the increase in the length of stay of the existing migrants and the increase in older new migrants. Due to this shift, the institutional restrictions, which deter family migration, become the key challenge. This project examines the cost of the migration restrictions (shortened labour supply and reduced human capital accumulation for the current and next generation migrants: their education, health and pro-social behaviour); and the best way to reform the restrictions on family migration and the priority for the reform.Read moreRead less
Policy Modelling for Ageing in Emerging Economies: The Case of Indonesia. This project, in collaboration with the World Bank and the Indonesian Planning Authority, will support major social and economic policy development in a rapidly ageing region. It will break new ground by developing a cutting-edge economic policy model reflecting salient features of ageing in emerging economies, taking into account the wider implications for education, employment, formalisation, growth, and retirement. It w ....Policy Modelling for Ageing in Emerging Economies: The Case of Indonesia. This project, in collaboration with the World Bank and the Indonesian Planning Authority, will support major social and economic policy development in a rapidly ageing region. It will break new ground by developing a cutting-edge economic policy model reflecting salient features of ageing in emerging economies, taking into account the wider implications for education, employment, formalisation, growth, and retirement. It will bring the armoury of policy analysis instruments available to these countries up to the standard now enjoyed by the developed world. Indonesia, on the brink of major pension reform, will be used as a test bed. Data sets will be developed to allow the model structure to be applied to other emerging economies in Asia. Read moreRead less