Helping Central Banks Measure Unobserved Variables Using Real-time Forecasts. The project addresses structural measurement problems confronted routinely by central bankers. The techniques developed, and the estimates provided, will aid directly the Partner Organisations (the Reserve Bank of Australia, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and Norges Bank) and other central banks in formulating monetary policy. The analysis will allow interest rates in Australia and elsewhere to be set with greater pre ....Helping Central Banks Measure Unobserved Variables Using Real-time Forecasts. The project addresses structural measurement problems confronted routinely by central bankers. The techniques developed, and the estimates provided, will aid directly the Partner Organisations (the Reserve Bank of Australia, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and Norges Bank) and other central banks in formulating monetary policy. The analysis will allow interest rates in Australia and elsewhere to be set with greater precision. The techniques developed in this project will facilitate the understanding and communication of monetary policy within the central banks concerned, and enhance communication of monetary policy strategy to the public.Read moreRead less
ASEAN+3 Free Trade Agreement and Its Impact on Australia-Vietnam Trade. The ASEAN+3 (China, Japan and Korea) free trade agreement endorsed by ASEAN Leaders in 2001 poses a serious trade diversion threat to Australia's goods and services trade to ASEAN and North Asia (reaching $33.9b and $85.0b respectively in 2001, see DFAT 2003). No research on this has been done or reported. The project, with Vietnam Institute for Trade collaboration, uses new analytical and empirical approaches to investigate ....ASEAN+3 Free Trade Agreement and Its Impact on Australia-Vietnam Trade. The ASEAN+3 (China, Japan and Korea) free trade agreement endorsed by ASEAN Leaders in 2001 poses a serious trade diversion threat to Australia's goods and services trade to ASEAN and North Asia (reaching $33.9b and $85.0b respectively in 2001, see DFAT 2003). No research on this has been done or reported. The project, with Vietnam Institute for Trade collaboration, uses new analytical and empirical approaches to investigate this FTA and its implications to Australia's trade to a major ASEAN country, namely Vietnam, where 2002 trade reached $2.8b and Australia's global companies (eg. ANZ, Telstra, RMIT) currently have large operation.Read moreRead less
Discovery Early Career Researcher Award - Grant ID: DE170100787
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$331,000.00
Summary
Misspecification in models of economic behaviour. This project aims to develop a robust method for estimation and inference with misspecified economic models. Economic models are designed to test hypotheses about economic behaviour and to estimate key parameters, but their validity and accuracy critically depend on the assumption that the model is correctly specified, which is often doubtful. This project will reparametrize the model to allow for misspecification. The project aims to help modell ....Misspecification in models of economic behaviour. This project aims to develop a robust method for estimation and inference with misspecified economic models. Economic models are designed to test hypotheses about economic behaviour and to estimate key parameters, but their validity and accuracy critically depend on the assumption that the model is correctly specified, which is often doubtful. This project will reparametrize the model to allow for misspecification. The project aims to help modellers produce results that better inform decision-makers and help them make more reliable decisions.Read moreRead less
Financing aged care in Australia: Mitigating fiscal gaps and maintaining intergenerational equity. Aged care has been identified as a significant contributor to the growing fiscal problems predicted for Australian government finances during the next 10 to 20 years. This project will develop the cutting-edge modelling tools needed to allow Australia to make informed decisions about possible reforms in aged care financing. It will create significant national benefits by allowing detailed assessmen ....Financing aged care in Australia: Mitigating fiscal gaps and maintaining intergenerational equity. Aged care has been identified as a significant contributor to the growing fiscal problems predicted for Australian government finances during the next 10 to 20 years. This project will develop the cutting-edge modelling tools needed to allow Australia to make informed decisions about possible reforms in aged care financing. It will create significant national benefits by allowing detailed assessment of the distributional impact of a wide range of possible reforms, including how the outcomes of any policy change will affect disadvantaged sections of our society, whether different generations will be fairly treated, and the impact by gender.Read moreRead less
Evaluation of targeting rules for implementing monetary policy. Monetary policy plays a primary role in stabilising business cycle fluctuations and in mitigating the effects of large economic shocks. This research deals with key issues in the operation of monetary policy. Our econometric analysis will provide new evidence on the short term goals pursed by central banks and improve our understanding their trade-offs. One application of our results will be an improvement in the ability to measure ....Evaluation of targeting rules for implementing monetary policy. Monetary policy plays a primary role in stabilising business cycle fluctuations and in mitigating the effects of large economic shocks. This research deals with key issues in the operation of monetary policy. Our econometric analysis will provide new evidence on the short term goals pursed by central banks and improve our understanding their trade-offs. One application of our results will be an improvement in the ability to measure and evaluate the performance of central banks. Greater evidence on the objectives and constraints of central banks will increase public knowledge and understanding of monetary policy, leading to more effective policy. Read moreRead less
Economic impact and policy implications of assisted reproductive technologies in Australia. Assisted reproductive technology (ART) is now a large scale economic activity in Australia, provided almost exclusively by private clinics. The outcome of ART programs, involving the birth of one in 30 children, has a profound effect on the health of the nation. Policy and funding frameworks influence how ART is practiced and the subsequent health outcomes of ART children, yet there is a lack of evidence ....Economic impact and policy implications of assisted reproductive technologies in Australia. Assisted reproductive technology (ART) is now a large scale economic activity in Australia, provided almost exclusively by private clinics. The outcome of ART programs, involving the birth of one in 30 children, has a profound effect on the health of the nation. Policy and funding frameworks influence how ART is practiced and the subsequent health outcomes of ART children, yet there is a lack of evidence to guide government and providers about effective, equitable and safe approaches to funding ART. This research will address that need, thereby fostering a healthy start to life and preventative healthcare; supporting the National Research Priority, promoting and maintaining good health, for ART children, their families and the community.Read moreRead less
Understanding the sources of secular stagnation. This project aims to examine why long-run projections of output, inflation, and interest rates have become lower for many economies in recent years resulting in a phenomenon often referred to as secular stagnation. The project intends to develop new econometric tools to account for sources of structural breaks and stochastic trends in order to quantify the roles of productivity growth, financial shocks, demographics, and inflation expectations in ....Understanding the sources of secular stagnation. This project aims to examine why long-run projections of output, inflation, and interest rates have become lower for many economies in recent years resulting in a phenomenon often referred to as secular stagnation. The project intends to develop new econometric tools to account for sources of structural breaks and stochastic trends in order to quantify the roles of productivity growth, financial shocks, demographics, and inflation expectations in driving secular stagnation. Expected outcomes include findings that will help guide macroeconomic policy responses to stagnation and new econometric tools that will support future applied research on changes in the behaviour of macroeconomic variables.Read moreRead less
Developing a model to assess the economic consequences of cannabis policy options. The potential economic benefits of the project reside in the ability of governments to make cannabis policy decisions based on assumptions of reduced economic burden of one model over another through:
1.the direct comparison in economic terms of three different models for the regulation of cannabis;
2.a model for estimating economic costs associated with cannabis which can be applied to other illicit drugs;
3 ....Developing a model to assess the economic consequences of cannabis policy options. The potential economic benefits of the project reside in the ability of governments to make cannabis policy decisions based on assumptions of reduced economic burden of one model over another through:
1.the direct comparison in economic terms of three different models for the regulation of cannabis;
2.a model for estimating economic costs associated with cannabis which can be applied to other illicit drugs;
3.improving the evidence-base for policy decision-making at all jurisdictions in Australia.
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Massively parallel algorithms for Bayesian inference and decision making. This project uses the graphical processing units of desktop computers, originally developed for games and video, to enhance substantially the quantitative tools used on a daily basis by economists. It will develop procedures and software to enhance the reliability of economic predictions and policy.
Increasing Globalisation and its Economic Implications. This project will focus on globalisation and its economic implications. We will: (a) propose definitions and measure of the ?degree of globalization", (b) examine its relationship with the degree of uncertainty facing an economy, (c) study the effects of globalisation and uncertainty on productivity growth, (d) examine the effects of uncertainty on the economy and (f) provide empirical applications for the Australian economy. Our project wi ....Increasing Globalisation and its Economic Implications. This project will focus on globalisation and its economic implications. We will: (a) propose definitions and measure of the ?degree of globalization", (b) examine its relationship with the degree of uncertainty facing an economy, (c) study the effects of globalisation and uncertainty on productivity growth, (d) examine the effects of uncertainty on the economy and (f) provide empirical applications for the Australian economy. Our project will provide an important, innovative and comprehensive examination of globalization and its economic effects. In addition to making novel theoretical and empirical contributions, it will also facilitate meaningful analyses of policy issues in Australia.Read moreRead less