Risk and Australian public policy. This project will develop fundamentally new approaches to the theory of risk and uncertainty and their role in the design and management of complex projects and policy initiatives. The results will be applied to the central economic policy choices facing Australia; those connected with globalisation and microeconomic reform. This project will show how the latest advances in economic theory can help to illuminate the major issues in the Australian public debate, ....Risk and Australian public policy. This project will develop fundamentally new approaches to the theory of risk and uncertainty and their role in the design and management of complex projects and policy initiatives. The results will be applied to the central economic policy choices facing Australia; those connected with globalisation and microeconomic reform. This project will show how the latest advances in economic theory can help to illuminate the major issues in the Australian public debate, from the role of government and the market to the assessment of standards of living. The project will also help to bridge the gap between economics and other social sciences.Read moreRead less
Epistemically feasible choice: implications for sustainable risk management. The aim of this project is to examine procedural decision principles that will yield better choices in circumstances where, because of epistemic limitations, standard decision theory provides an inadequate guide. Individuals and policy-makers must make decisions even though they cannot be fully aware of all of the relevant possibilities or fully understand consequences they have not yet experienced. Examples include ind ....Epistemically feasible choice: implications for sustainable risk management. The aim of this project is to examine procedural decision principles that will yield better choices in circumstances where, because of epistemic limitations, standard decision theory provides an inadequate guide. Individuals and policy-makers must make decisions even though they cannot be fully aware of all of the relevant possibilities or fully understand consequences they have not yet experienced. Examples include individual decisions about marriage and childbearing, public policy decisions about complex environmental problems and decisions on funding scientific research. The expected outcome of the project will be a formal model of decision theory incorporating principles of resilience, sustainability and transformative experience.Read moreRead less
Australian Laureate Fellowships - Grant ID: FL120100034
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$2,002,560.00
Summary
Black swans and unknown unknowns: financial markets and their interaction with the macroeconomy in the presence of unanticipated contingencies. Unforeseen contingencies, also called 'black swans' or 'unknown unknowns' pose serious difficulties for decisionmakers. This project will examine how financial regulation can be improved to reduce the vulnerability of the financial system and the macroeconomy to unforeseen shocks.
'Fixed points': extending and deepening our understanding of mathematical and computational aspects of game theory. This work will extend and deepen our understanding of mathematical and computational aspects of game theory. It will produce computer code embodying new methods of solving systems of nonlinear equations, which is useful in many areas of applied research in economics, in other disciplines such as chemistry, and potentially in the analysis of business operations. The project will a ....'Fixed points': extending and deepening our understanding of mathematical and computational aspects of game theory. This work will extend and deepen our understanding of mathematical and computational aspects of game theory. It will produce computer code embodying new methods of solving systems of nonlinear equations, which is useful in many areas of applied research in economics, in other disciplines such as chemistry, and potentially in the analysis of business operations. The project will also deepen our understanding of the underlying mathematics of such systems, and of other mathematical foundations of economic research. One application will be a new measure of the relative power resulting from voting rules. Such measures assist the design of democratic institutions by allowing the designer to assess the fairness of the outcomes they produce.Read moreRead less
Information and market price manipulation in trade. As we can see from the financial crisis, speculative trading in financial markets can have real world effects. Inside traders can exploit their information for more profits. At this stage, we do not fully understand the role of diverse information in the financial system and we need better ways to model price manipulation and information in a dynamic setting. This proposal seeks to supply a reference framework for analyzing price manipulatio ....Information and market price manipulation in trade. As we can see from the financial crisis, speculative trading in financial markets can have real world effects. Inside traders can exploit their information for more profits. At this stage, we do not fully understand the role of diverse information in the financial system and we need better ways to model price manipulation and information in a dynamic setting. This proposal seeks to supply a reference framework for analyzing price manipulation. Recently, there has been an increasing interest in the informed trader's dynamic strategy. By strengthening this research area, this project will give new momentum to Australian economic theory.Read moreRead less
Reliability of purchasing power parities from the World Bank. This project aims to provide an econometric framework to estimate purchasing power parities (PPPs) and a method to compute standard errors associated with the World Bank’s International Comparison Programme (ICP)’s PPPs. The ICP regularly compiles and publishes estimates of PPPs of currencies and real incomes. These results are used for study of global inequality and poverty; macroeconomic analysis; the Human Development Index; and cr ....Reliability of purchasing power parities from the World Bank. This project aims to provide an econometric framework to estimate purchasing power parities (PPPs) and a method to compute standard errors associated with the World Bank’s International Comparison Programme (ICP)’s PPPs. The ICP regularly compiles and publishes estimates of PPPs of currencies and real incomes. These results are used for study of global inequality and poverty; macroeconomic analysis; the Human Development Index; and cross-country productivity comparisons. However, no estimates of ICP PPPs’ reliability are available. Results from this project are likely to improve the quality of widely used data sets including the Penn World Tables and the University of Queensland International Comparison Database relevant to banking.Read moreRead less
Memory, Induction, and Strategic Behaviour in Economic and Social Situations. This project will provide economists, game theorists and other social scientists with a theoretical framework to model players with limited memories, and to model the process by which they develop their subjective views. By giving a formal treatment of the problem of induction, it will help us to understand how people might come to have different views on the world. By capturing new aspects of bounded memory, it will e ....Memory, Induction, and Strategic Behaviour in Economic and Social Situations. This project will provide economists, game theorists and other social scientists with a theoretical framework to model players with limited memories, and to model the process by which they develop their subjective views. By giving a formal treatment of the problem of induction, it will help us to understand how people might come to have different views on the world. By capturing new aspects of bounded memory, it will extend our understanding of agents with bounded rationality. The emergence of sophisticated strategic concepts and behavioural implications of these subjective views in society can also be described and discussed in this framework. Read moreRead less
Investigating the Concordance and Transmission of International Business Cycles. Business cycle recessions are costly. Apart from the economic cost, there is the devastating social and psychological impact of unemployment on individuals and families. The 1990/91 recession cost Australia somewhere between $25 and $30 billion in lost output and resulted in a half a million additional unemployed. Australia will certainly experience another recession and, given its openness to international influenc ....Investigating the Concordance and Transmission of International Business Cycles. Business cycle recessions are costly. Apart from the economic cost, there is the devastating social and psychological impact of unemployment on individuals and families. The 1990/91 recession cost Australia somewhere between $25 and $30 billion in lost output and resulted in a half a million additional unemployed. Australia will certainly experience another recession and, given its openness to international influences, it is likely that it will originate elsewhere in the world. In delivering a greater understanding of the interdependencies in international business cycles, the project will assist economic policymakers in their efforts to ameliorate Australia's next recession. Read moreRead less
Using Heart Rate Variability measurements to identify the effects of stress on decision making. Rationality and the willingness to cooperate is an important aspect of human decision making. Research shows that certain decisions not only cause stress but are also affected by it. Using modern mobile heart rate monitors, we are able to measure causes and consequences of stress in a controlled and natural environment. This research will help to provide better workplace environments by helping to des ....Using Heart Rate Variability measurements to identify the effects of stress on decision making. Rationality and the willingness to cooperate is an important aspect of human decision making. Research shows that certain decisions not only cause stress but are also affected by it. Using modern mobile heart rate monitors, we are able to measure causes and consequences of stress in a controlled and natural environment. This research will help to provide better workplace environments by helping to design better organisations, decreasing the probability of workplace accidents, and advising employees how to better use their talents. This research also helps put Australia on the forefront of modern economic research that aims to open the ultimate "black box" of human decision making.Read moreRead less
A Virtual Electromagnetic Compatibility (EMC) Lab Based on Advanced Computer Modeling and Simulation Techniques. The proposed project will provide a framework of electromagnetic compatibility computer modelling technologies for an electromagnetic compatibility/electromagnetic interference problem-solving environment. It will result in theoretical and practical contributions to the field of electromagnetic compatibility/electromagnetic interference and computational electromagnetics. The project ....A Virtual Electromagnetic Compatibility (EMC) Lab Based on Advanced Computer Modeling and Simulation Techniques. The proposed project will provide a framework of electromagnetic compatibility computer modelling technologies for an electromagnetic compatibility/electromagnetic interference problem-solving environment. It will result in theoretical and practical contributions to the field of electromagnetic compatibility/electromagnetic interference and computational electromagnetics. The project will provide an innovative technology to industry and societies with following major benefits: a) increased productivity and minimized the product risk with low failure rate, b) quicker project management cycles through such cost-effective electromagnetic compatibility computer modelling and simulation techniques based virtual Electromagnetic Compatibility Lab. and c) improved electromagnetic compatibility/electromagnetic interference problem solving environment and techniques for scientific research and commercial applications.Read moreRead less