Understanding the sources of secular stagnation. This project aims to examine why long-run projections of output, inflation, and interest rates have become lower for many economies in recent years resulting in a phenomenon often referred to as secular stagnation. The project intends to develop new econometric tools to account for sources of structural breaks and stochastic trends in order to quantify the roles of productivity growth, financial shocks, demographics, and inflation expectations in ....Understanding the sources of secular stagnation. This project aims to examine why long-run projections of output, inflation, and interest rates have become lower for many economies in recent years resulting in a phenomenon often referred to as secular stagnation. The project intends to develop new econometric tools to account for sources of structural breaks and stochastic trends in order to quantify the roles of productivity growth, financial shocks, demographics, and inflation expectations in driving secular stagnation. Expected outcomes include findings that will help guide macroeconomic policy responses to stagnation and new econometric tools that will support future applied research on changes in the behaviour of macroeconomic variables.Read moreRead less
Nowcasting and Interpreting the Australian Economy. This project aims to investigate methods for nowcasting and interpreting the Australian economy. This is determining the current state of the economy and the factors contributing to it.
This project expects to generate new knowledge on how unconventional, new, data sources and innovative methods can be used to in nowcasting and how the Australian economy can be modelled.
The expected outcomes include timely new indicators of the state of the ec ....Nowcasting and Interpreting the Australian Economy. This project aims to investigate methods for nowcasting and interpreting the Australian economy. This is determining the current state of the economy and the factors contributing to it.
This project expects to generate new knowledge on how unconventional, new, data sources and innovative methods can be used to in nowcasting and how the Australian economy can be modelled.
The expected outcomes include timely new indicators of the state of the economy, and the factors contributing to it. This should provide significant benefits through informing the conduct of Australian macroeconomic policy, as the appropriate policy response depends not only on knowing the current state of the economy but understanding the economic factors underlying it.
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An Economic Analysis of Bankruptcy and Financial Reorganization in Australia. We examine the question of whether the new Australian bankruptcy law is too lenient on firms in financial trouble. We will assemble detailed economic data on a large number of bankrupt firms and use the data to measure the performance of the Australian bankruptcy system. The outcome will be a more complete understanding of how bankruptcy law saves viable firms and eliminates inefficient firms. The project will assist p ....An Economic Analysis of Bankruptcy and Financial Reorganization in Australia. We examine the question of whether the new Australian bankruptcy law is too lenient on firms in financial trouble. We will assemble detailed economic data on a large number of bankrupt firms and use the data to measure the performance of the Australian bankruptcy system. The outcome will be a more complete understanding of how bankruptcy law saves viable firms and eliminates inefficient firms. The project will assist policy-makers designing bankruptcy law. The national benefit will be a bankruptcy system that balances the need to give innovating entrepreneurs a second chance against the danger of
encouraging too many unprofitable firms to limp on and waste
resources.Read moreRead less
Evolving urban structure, mode choice, travel behaviour and energy consumption: A study of the Sydney planning strategy. The project will analyse the emerging Sydney Strategic Plan which is designed to address excessive car reliance that is claimed to cause inefficient energy use, congestion, adverse health and excessive greenhouse gas emissions. The Project's policy framework will contribute to of an environmentally sustainable Australia and will promote public debate. While other funding will ....Evolving urban structure, mode choice, travel behaviour and energy consumption: A study of the Sydney planning strategy. The project will analyse the emerging Sydney Strategic Plan which is designed to address excessive car reliance that is claimed to cause inefficient energy use, congestion, adverse health and excessive greenhouse gas emissions. The Project's policy framework will contribute to of an environmentally sustainable Australia and will promote public debate. While other funding will have expired, the professional academic network will continue to flourish at spatially oriented workshops and conferences which will provide the means of disseminating the analytical techniques, empirical results and policy analysis from the project, thereby enhancing the research capacities of network members.Read moreRead less
Market Model of Implied Volatility. The outcomes of the project will constitute a new methodology with a wide range of tools to handle the market uncertainties with practical applications in the finance industry. Consequently, the benefits of this project to the nation include enhancing its scientific standing in the international community, the training of Australian researchers in forefront methods of modelling of complex stochastic systems and the benefits resulting from its commercially rele ....Market Model of Implied Volatility. The outcomes of the project will constitute a new methodology with a wide range of tools to handle the market uncertainties with practical applications in the finance industry. Consequently, the benefits of this project to the nation include enhancing its scientific standing in the international community, the training of Australian researchers in forefront methods of modelling of complex stochastic systems and the benefits resulting from its commercially relevant elements. Read moreRead less
The Medicare Safety Net and its effect on efficiency, equity and welfare. This project aims to measure the welfare implications of social health insurance reforms. It will use the introduction of the Extended Medicare Safety Net to examine the effect of social insurance reforms on the efficiency and equity of Australia's health care system. The project expects to produce evidence on the partial and aggregate effects of the Medicare Safety Net and knowledge on the relationship between social insu ....The Medicare Safety Net and its effect on efficiency, equity and welfare. This project aims to measure the welfare implications of social health insurance reforms. It will use the introduction of the Extended Medicare Safety Net to examine the effect of social insurance reforms on the efficiency and equity of Australia's health care system. The project expects to produce evidence on the partial and aggregate effects of the Medicare Safety Net and knowledge on the relationship between social insurance and health system performance. In doing so, the research seeks to help policy makers to improve the design of social health insurance programmes to make the system more sustainable and equitable.Read moreRead less
The Demand for Older Workers: Technology, Skill and Employment Opportunities. "Productive ageing" policies are central to Australia's strategies for the governance of population ageing. But little is known about the determinants of firms' demand for older workers. By uncovering the impact that technological change has on firms' hiring and training decisions, this study will critically complement our understanding of older workers' constrained employment opportunities. In so doing it seeks to inf ....The Demand for Older Workers: Technology, Skill and Employment Opportunities. "Productive ageing" policies are central to Australia's strategies for the governance of population ageing. But little is known about the determinants of firms' demand for older workers. By uncovering the impact that technological change has on firms' hiring and training decisions, this study will critically complement our understanding of older workers' constrained employment opportunities. In so doing it seeks to inform the long-term policy debate on how best to adjust our economy to the current major demographic and technological development. Its outcomes will be of interest and use to policy makers, industry, advocacy groups, unions and the wider community.
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Large dynamic time-varying models for structural macroeconomic inference. This project aims to broaden the range of macroeconomic models that have an integrated capacity for both greater realism and efficiency in analysis. This approach will be applied to two contexts at the forefront of current macroeconomic research, the effects of noisy productivity signals on business cycles and the effects of fiscal policy shocks. Flexible macro-econometric models underpin accurate inference by economists ....Large dynamic time-varying models for structural macroeconomic inference. This project aims to broaden the range of macroeconomic models that have an integrated capacity for both greater realism and efficiency in analysis. This approach will be applied to two contexts at the forefront of current macroeconomic research, the effects of noisy productivity signals on business cycles and the effects of fiscal policy shocks. Flexible macro-econometric models underpin accurate inference by economists and policymakers and the project outputs should provide widespread and significant benefits by improving policy and boosting Australia’s comparative advantage.Read moreRead less
Estimating the effects of fiscal policy. This project will develop highly flexible models for estimating the effects of fiscal policy, as well as providing insight into how economic assumptions affect these estimates and which assumptions are supported by historical experience. The models and estimates will be useful for researchers, policymakers and businesses.
Distributional Consequences of Mass-Market Higher Education in Business. Increased access to tertiary education has not been evaluated for its effects on the full spectrum of individuals served by the tertiary sector. Using longitudinal data on entire student populations at university business faculties, this project will provide the first Australian evidence on the trade-offs amongst the educational success of students with different levels of preparation that occur when those with poorer prep ....Distributional Consequences of Mass-Market Higher Education in Business. Increased access to tertiary education has not been evaluated for its effects on the full spectrum of individuals served by the tertiary sector. Using longitudinal data on entire student populations at university business faculties, this project will provide the first Australian evidence on the trade-offs amongst the educational success of students with different levels of preparation that occur when those with poorer preparation are added to classrooms. Short-term performance and medium-term attrition, a recent educational policy focus, will be evaluated. Theoretically grounded recommendations will result for undergraduate program design to suit a student population with varying levels of university preparation.Read moreRead less