New approaches to the statistical modelling of financial risk: combining structural information with flexible, computationally-intensive non-parametric methods. The aims of this project are to provide a range of novel, rigorous, flexible, statistical methods to assess portfolio risk, with due attention to behaviour of its constituent components; to obtain greater understanding of the complexities of risk; and to give students research training in the nexus of statistics and finance. The anticip ....New approaches to the statistical modelling of financial risk: combining structural information with flexible, computationally-intensive non-parametric methods. The aims of this project are to provide a range of novel, rigorous, flexible, statistical methods to assess portfolio risk, with due attention to behaviour of its constituent components; to obtain greater understanding of the complexities of risk; and to give students research training in the nexus of statistics and finance. The anticipated outcomes of this project will be detailed knowledge of extremal behaviour in portfolios, improved methods for calibrating risk, advances in non-parametric methods in finance, a prototype practitioner toolkit for assessing risk, and high-calibre graduates to contribute to Australia's research capacity.Read moreRead less
Disclosure in patents, an economic analysis using computational linguistics. This project aims to analyse the disclosure of patents. To achieve economic growth, the patent system aims to provide incentives for research and development as well as to ensure knowledge is accessible as widely as possible. This project will explore and demonstrate the usefulness of computational linguistics in the economic analysis of disclosure in patents. In particular, the project will look at the role of readabi ....Disclosure in patents, an economic analysis using computational linguistics. This project aims to analyse the disclosure of patents. To achieve economic growth, the patent system aims to provide incentives for research and development as well as to ensure knowledge is accessible as widely as possible. This project will explore and demonstrate the usefulness of computational linguistics in the economic analysis of disclosure in patents. In particular, the project will look at the role of readability in the patent application and examination process. This will provide a strong potential to inform and improve patent examination processes and patent policy. Expected outcomes will enable society to achieve greater use of the knowledge embedded in the patent system, thereby contributing to higher economic growth.Read moreRead less
Assessing the Impact of Public Finances on the PNG-Australia Borderland. The project aims to address a vexed public policy problem of how to better manage the flow of public finances and people across our international borders. Torres Strait Islanders and Papua New Guinea (PNG) nationals living in the PNG–Australia borderland have relatively unrestricted access across the border for traditional activities, under the legal framework of the Torres Strait Treaty. The interplay of public finance exp ....Assessing the Impact of Public Finances on the PNG-Australia Borderland. The project aims to address a vexed public policy problem of how to better manage the flow of public finances and people across our international borders. Torres Strait Islanders and Papua New Guinea (PNG) nationals living in the PNG–Australia borderland have relatively unrestricted access across the border for traditional activities, under the legal framework of the Torres Strait Treaty. The interplay of public finance expenditure emanating from Australia strongly dominates the borderland economy, influencing cross-border mobility and attendant public health and security risks from disease transmission, quarantine and transnational crime. By problematising current policy framings and analysing the asymmetric socio-economic context of the region relative to other borderlands internationally, the project aims to propose alternative finance modalities that improve effectiveness across both sides of the border.Read moreRead less
Nonlinear Econometric Modelling: A Complex Systems Perspective. It is becoming increasingly accepted that economic systems are both complex and adaptive. However, this introduces a range of problems in constructing, estimating and testing economic models using time series data. In this project, this problem will be addressed through the formulation and implementation of a new methodology and associated techniques. These techniques will allow a researcher to use information obtained from a set o ....Nonlinear Econometric Modelling: A Complex Systems Perspective. It is becoming increasingly accepted that economic systems are both complex and adaptive. However, this introduces a range of problems in constructing, estimating and testing economic models using time series data. In this project, this problem will be addressed through the formulation and implementation of a new methodology and associated techniques. These techniques will allow a researcher to use information obtained from a set of nonlinearity tests to determine which type of nonlinear model provides the best representation of a data generating mechanism. Selected high frequency financial and macroeconomic data (for the US and Australia) will be used in the study. This research is intended to change the direction and emphasis of econometric modelling and promises to have a fundamental impact on forecasting and policy evaluation methods.
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Large dynamic time-varying models for structural macroeconomic inference. This project aims to broaden the range of macroeconomic models that have an integrated capacity for both greater realism and efficiency in analysis. This approach will be applied to two contexts at the forefront of current macroeconomic research, the effects of noisy productivity signals on business cycles and the effects of fiscal policy shocks. Flexible macro-econometric models underpin accurate inference by economists ....Large dynamic time-varying models for structural macroeconomic inference. This project aims to broaden the range of macroeconomic models that have an integrated capacity for both greater realism and efficiency in analysis. This approach will be applied to two contexts at the forefront of current macroeconomic research, the effects of noisy productivity signals on business cycles and the effects of fiscal policy shocks. Flexible macro-econometric models underpin accurate inference by economists and policymakers and the project outputs should provide widespread and significant benefits by improving policy and boosting Australia’s comparative advantage.Read moreRead less
Closing the Gap Between Theory and Data in Macroeconometrics. This project aims to bring econometric models (the empirical vehicle for inference) and economic models (the theory) closer together. A new model is intended to be proposed that will address a significant issue with the interpretation of the outputs of the econometric models. As a first contribution, the project is expected to develop the model and an inferential framework for this model using probability theory on manifolds. In a sec ....Closing the Gap Between Theory and Data in Macroeconometrics. This project aims to bring econometric models (the empirical vehicle for inference) and economic models (the theory) closer together. A new model is intended to be proposed that will address a significant issue with the interpretation of the outputs of the econometric models. As a first contribution, the project is expected to develop the model and an inferential framework for this model using probability theory on manifolds. In a second contribution, it is expected to construct an algorithm to permit inference leading to outputs useful to policy analysts. The model is intended to be parsimonious, which facilitates the development of a time-varying version to allow the model to evolve with the economy and provide better policy guidance.Read moreRead less
Computing probabilities of theories where these probabilities vary over time with applications in macroeconomics. This project will present a method to produce empirically based policy advice that accounts for the changing economic environment and that allows for a range of assumptions about how the economy works. The research and training will place Australia at the forefront of empirical macroeconomic research and strengthen international research networks. Policy making will be improved as: i ....Computing probabilities of theories where these probabilities vary over time with applications in macroeconomics. This project will present a method to produce empirically based policy advice that accounts for the changing economic environment and that allows for a range of assumptions about how the economy works. The research and training will place Australia at the forefront of empirical macroeconomic research and strengthen international research networks. Policy making will be improved as: it will use information that is more robust to false assumptions; it will quickly incorporate new information; and we will understand better why certain policies did or did not work at different times in the past. The research will impact upon other sciences such as physics and engineering that use the same underlying tools far more than do economists.Read moreRead less
Incorporating the gains from healthy ageing in health system planning. This project aims to develop evidence-based fit-for-purpose economic models for planning future capacity for public health programmes by developing new methodological approaches incorporating dynamic changes in health and health risks over time. The project expects to generate new knowledge on the impact of improvements in physical and mental well-being on funding and capacity requirements for public programmes to meet tomorr ....Incorporating the gains from healthy ageing in health system planning. This project aims to develop evidence-based fit-for-purpose economic models for planning future capacity for public health programmes by developing new methodological approaches incorporating dynamic changes in health and health risks over time. The project expects to generate new knowledge on the impact of improvements in physical and mental well-being on funding and capacity requirements for public programmes to meet tomorrow’s needs for care instead of projecting yesterday’s use of care. Expected outcomes include new economic models responsive to changes in population characteristics, conditions and contexts. The proposed research should provide significant benefits through improving efficiency of public investments in health.Read moreRead less
Heterogeneity, Wage Inequality, Unemployment, and Economic Growth. This project would provide the first internally consistent theory of wage inequality, unemployment and economic growth - and the roles that government policy variables play in determining them. It would use and extend frontier developments in theory, and identify the settings of policy variables (unemployment insurance, tax structures, education policies) that maximise social welfare, given that governments must satisfy their bud ....Heterogeneity, Wage Inequality, Unemployment, and Economic Growth. This project would provide the first internally consistent theory of wage inequality, unemployment and economic growth - and the roles that government policy variables play in determining them. It would use and extend frontier developments in theory, and identify the settings of policy variables (unemployment insurance, tax structures, education policies) that maximise social welfare, given that governments must satisfy their budget constraints. It also aims to uncover the relationship between the innate abilities of workers and their education choices - and the consequences for macro economies and public policy.Read moreRead less
An international evaluation of work-family balance: Validation of the work-family balance measure and theoretical model. Work-family imbalance costs Australia $8 billion per annum, via staff absenteeism, turnover, and health costs. By employing two Australian and three international experts, this project will investigate the long-term process of work-family balance, identify effective employment policies, and produce a new balance measure for use by industry and government. This will lead to imp ....An international evaluation of work-family balance: Validation of the work-family balance measure and theoretical model. Work-family imbalance costs Australia $8 billion per annum, via staff absenteeism, turnover, and health costs. By employing two Australian and three international experts, this project will investigate the long-term process of work-family balance, identify effective employment policies, and produce a new balance measure for use by industry and government. This will lead to improved health, personal satisfaction and employment choices for working Australians, and hence higher productivity for industry. The research addresses the second national research priority: promoting and maintaining good health. The consequential contributions to knowledge will directly benefit Australia's regard within the global academic community.Read moreRead less