Computing probabilities of theories where these probabilities vary over time with applications in macroeconomics. This project will present a method to produce empirically based policy advice that accounts for the changing economic environment and that allows for a range of assumptions about how the economy works. The research and training will place Australia at the forefront of empirical macroeconomic research and strengthen international research networks. Policy making will be improved as: i ....Computing probabilities of theories where these probabilities vary over time with applications in macroeconomics. This project will present a method to produce empirically based policy advice that accounts for the changing economic environment and that allows for a range of assumptions about how the economy works. The research and training will place Australia at the forefront of empirical macroeconomic research and strengthen international research networks. Policy making will be improved as: it will use information that is more robust to false assumptions; it will quickly incorporate new information; and we will understand better why certain policies did or did not work at different times in the past. The research will impact upon other sciences such as physics and engineering that use the same underlying tools far more than do economists.Read moreRead less
The impacts of industry restructuring. This project aims to shed light on how Australia's workforce and communities will engage with the world of work in a future shaped by new business models and disruptive technologies. Using the closure of the automotive industry as a lens into this topic, the project will provide new insights into how displaced workers find work, use services, relate to others, and reshape their futures. It sheds light on the community-wide impacts of restructuring, providin ....The impacts of industry restructuring. This project aims to shed light on how Australia's workforce and communities will engage with the world of work in a future shaped by new business models and disruptive technologies. Using the closure of the automotive industry as a lens into this topic, the project will provide new insights into how displaced workers find work, use services, relate to others, and reshape their futures. It sheds light on the community-wide impacts of restructuring, providing new perspectives on how local resources and public policies best advance the process of adjustment.Read moreRead less
Risk and Australian public policy. This project will develop fundamentally new approaches to the theory of risk and uncertainty and their role in the design and management of complex projects and policy initiatives. The results will be applied to the central economic policy choices facing Australia; those connected with globalisation and microeconomic reform. This project will show how the latest advances in economic theory can help to illuminate the major issues in the Australian public debate, ....Risk and Australian public policy. This project will develop fundamentally new approaches to the theory of risk and uncertainty and their role in the design and management of complex projects and policy initiatives. The results will be applied to the central economic policy choices facing Australia; those connected with globalisation and microeconomic reform. This project will show how the latest advances in economic theory can help to illuminate the major issues in the Australian public debate, from the role of government and the market to the assessment of standards of living. The project will also help to bridge the gap between economics and other social sciences.Read moreRead less
Financing aged care in Australia: Mitigating fiscal gaps and maintaining intergenerational equity. Aged care has been identified as a significant contributor to the growing fiscal problems predicted for Australian government finances during the next 10 to 20 years. This project will develop the cutting-edge modelling tools needed to allow Australia to make informed decisions about possible reforms in aged care financing. It will create significant national benefits by allowing detailed assessmen ....Financing aged care in Australia: Mitigating fiscal gaps and maintaining intergenerational equity. Aged care has been identified as a significant contributor to the growing fiscal problems predicted for Australian government finances during the next 10 to 20 years. This project will develop the cutting-edge modelling tools needed to allow Australia to make informed decisions about possible reforms in aged care financing. It will create significant national benefits by allowing detailed assessment of the distributional impact of a wide range of possible reforms, including how the outcomes of any policy change will affect disadvantaged sections of our society, whether different generations will be fairly treated, and the impact by gender.Read moreRead less
Strengthening economic resilience in Monsoon Asia. Sharing, reciprocity and resource pooling are at the frontline of recovery and relief when economic crisis or disaster hits Monsoon Asia. This research aims to shed light on cases where these economic practices have been innovatively harnessed to diversify livelihoods and build economic resilience. Working with contemporary Asian scholars, practitioners in the disaster field and a data set gleaned from multiple sources, including mid-20th centur ....Strengthening economic resilience in Monsoon Asia. Sharing, reciprocity and resource pooling are at the frontline of recovery and relief when economic crisis or disaster hits Monsoon Asia. This research aims to shed light on cases where these economic practices have been innovatively harnessed to diversify livelihoods and build economic resilience. Working with contemporary Asian scholars, practitioners in the disaster field and a data set gleaned from multiple sources, including mid-20th century tropical geography texts, the project aims to bring to the fore a regional landscape of diverse economic practices across Monsoon Asia. A cross-regional on-line knowledge community is expected to be formed to explore how this asset base might be mobilised towards more effective local development and disaster response.Read moreRead less
Farmers of the Future: the Challenges of Feminised Agriculture in India. Neoliberal economic policies are fundamentally transforming the social landscapes of rural India, causing a deep agrarian crisis. The agrarian changes accentuate the unequal consequences for poor women and men in relation to: production (labour, tenure); livelihood and food security; access to and ownership of assets such as land and water and access to agricultural innovations and institutions. This multiscalar project inv ....Farmers of the Future: the Challenges of Feminised Agriculture in India. Neoliberal economic policies are fundamentally transforming the social landscapes of rural India, causing a deep agrarian crisis. The agrarian changes accentuate the unequal consequences for poor women and men in relation to: production (labour, tenure); livelihood and food security; access to and ownership of assets such as land and water and access to agricultural innovations and institutions. This multiscalar project investigates the causes and consequences of feminisation of agriculture in India’s transitioning economy in order to understand how gender roles and relations are being re-shaped in communities and households in diverse socioeconomic and cultural contexts and agro-ecological areas.Read moreRead less
ARC Financial Integrity Research Network. The integrity of the financial system is constantly under stress because of the development of ever more complex financial instruments, structures and strategies, and the associated research technologies that continues to accelerate worldwide. FIRN's vision is to harness the considerable strengths of Australia's internationally renowned finance, accounting and economics researchers into a research agenda to address issues concerning the integrity of the ....ARC Financial Integrity Research Network. The integrity of the financial system is constantly under stress because of the development of ever more complex financial instruments, structures and strategies, and the associated research technologies that continues to accelerate worldwide. FIRN's vision is to harness the considerable strengths of Australia's internationally renowned finance, accounting and economics researchers into a research agenda to address issues concerning the integrity of the financial system. It will enable Australian research in this area to match the scale and impact of similar research in other major international financial centres, and play an essential role in placing Australia among the world's leaders in financial markets related research.Read moreRead less
Nature futures: mapping pathways to prosperity for people and nature. Population growth, consumption and trade are direct socio-economic drivers of land use change and climate change, which determine where species can persist. The UN Sustainable Development Goals and national policies acknowledge the dependence of people on nature and the impact of socio-economic drivers on nature. However, few analyses of impacts on nature explicitly incorporate socio-economic drivers. Utilising a novel modelli ....Nature futures: mapping pathways to prosperity for people and nature. Population growth, consumption and trade are direct socio-economic drivers of land use change and climate change, which determine where species can persist. The UN Sustainable Development Goals and national policies acknowledge the dependence of people on nature and the impact of socio-economic drivers on nature. However, few analyses of impacts on nature explicitly incorporate socio-economic drivers. Utilising a novel modelling framework and high-performance computing we will integrate economic, land use and biodiversity models to evaluate: (i) policies and incentives for increasing national vegetation cover for carbon sequestration and habitat, and (ii) global risks to nature posed by land use change under future geopolitical scenarios.Read moreRead less
The improvement of climate change investigations by developing and applying innovative evolutionary subset time series modelling using semi-parametric sparse-patterned approaches. With an estimated US$6.98 trillion loss indicated in the Stern review, severe climate change will make world climate conditions harsher and more likely include large natural climate disasters. The health of the Australian economy is critically dependent on decisions of environmental managers. However, most problems of ....The improvement of climate change investigations by developing and applying innovative evolutionary subset time series modelling using semi-parametric sparse-patterned approaches. With an estimated US$6.98 trillion loss indicated in the Stern review, severe climate change will make world climate conditions harsher and more likely include large natural climate disasters. The health of the Australian economy is critically dependent on decisions of environmental managers. However, most problems of complexity arising in climate change involve issues on which we do not possess a deep understanding. This project draws upon a set of inter-disciplinary concepts and models centred in neural networks that enable us to advance our understanding of complexity, leading to superior quantitative tools and models to allow for improved environmental decision-making.
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Long term economic impacts of disease on older workers to 2030: Costs to government and individuals and opportunities for intervention. This project will fill substantial gaps in Australian evidence about the health conditions of the future that will keep older workers out of the labour market and diminish their own immediate and long-term livings standards, thereby reducing funds available to government. We will address one of the most significant issues resulting from the fundamental changes t ....Long term economic impacts of disease on older workers to 2030: Costs to government and individuals and opportunities for intervention. This project will fill substantial gaps in Australian evidence about the health conditions of the future that will keep older workers out of the labour market and diminish their own immediate and long-term livings standards, thereby reducing funds available to government. We will address one of the most significant issues resulting from the fundamental changes to the demography of the Australian labour market and one that is regularly raised by the government following the release of the 2002 and 2007 Intergenerational Reports. This project will also examine the interventions that would improve the health of older workers and increase labour force participation over the long term.Read moreRead less