Games and decisions with bounded rationality: theory and economic implications. This project will develop concepts and tools for decision making in complex environments, where it is impossible to fully characterise the possible outcomes and factors that may affect them. A central goal will be to integrate heuristic rules such as the precautionary principle with the more formal approach adopted in benefit-cost analysis.
Heterogeneity, Wage Inequality, Unemployment, and Economic Growth. This project would provide the first internally consistent theory of wage inequality, unemployment and economic growth - and the roles that government policy variables play in determining them. It would use and extend frontier developments in theory, and identify the settings of policy variables (unemployment insurance, tax structures, education policies) that maximise social welfare, given that governments must satisfy their bud ....Heterogeneity, Wage Inequality, Unemployment, and Economic Growth. This project would provide the first internally consistent theory of wage inequality, unemployment and economic growth - and the roles that government policy variables play in determining them. It would use and extend frontier developments in theory, and identify the settings of policy variables (unemployment insurance, tax structures, education policies) that maximise social welfare, given that governments must satisfy their budget constraints. It also aims to uncover the relationship between the innate abilities of workers and their education choices - and the consequences for macro economies and public policy.Read moreRead less
Introspection, Learning, and Equilibrium in Games: Theory and Experiment. Game theory is increasingly being used in the social sciences, but the extreme reliance on perfect decision making and perfect foresight has raised doubts about its empirical relevance. This scepticism is reinforced by laboratory evidence showing behaviour patterns that are systematically biased away from game-theoretic predictions. This project concerns the development and testing of models more descriptive of actual huma ....Introspection, Learning, and Equilibrium in Games: Theory and Experiment. Game theory is increasingly being used in the social sciences, but the extreme reliance on perfect decision making and perfect foresight has raised doubts about its empirical relevance. This scepticism is reinforced by laboratory evidence showing behaviour patterns that are systematically biased away from game-theoretic predictions. This project concerns the development and testing of models more descriptive of actual human behaviour. One aim is to deliver hybrid models able to reproduce interesting patterns of first-period play (introspection), time-series data in repeated games (learning), and systematic departures from static equilibrium. Another aim is to apply a successful hybrid to improve the design of economic and social institutions.Read moreRead less
Economics of continuous-time financial markets and endogenous pricing. This research has the potential to benefit society by improving the accuracy of pricing in securities markets. First, because the research leads to specific predictions about the interaction of prices for different type of assets, it should lead to more accurate pricing across markets, such as housing, stocks and bonds, which currently function largely independently. Second, it should lead to more accurate pricing of derivati ....Economics of continuous-time financial markets and endogenous pricing. This research has the potential to benefit society by improving the accuracy of pricing in securities markets. First, because the research leads to specific predictions about the interaction of prices for different type of assets, it should lead to more accurate pricing across markets, such as housing, stocks and bonds, which currently function largely independently. Second, it should lead to more accurate pricing of derivatives in the situations where the exercise price of the derivatives differs significantly from the current price of the underlying stock.Read moreRead less
Economics of Incomplete Markets and Pricing in Equilibrium. This research has the potential to benefit society by improving the accurary of pricing in securities markets. First, because the research leads to specific predictions about the interaction of prices for different type of assets, it should lead to more accurate pricing across markets, such as housing, stocks and bonds, which currently function largely independentlty. Second, it should lead to more accurate pricing of derivatives in the ....Economics of Incomplete Markets and Pricing in Equilibrium. This research has the potential to benefit society by improving the accurary of pricing in securities markets. First, because the research leads to specific predictions about the interaction of prices for different type of assets, it should lead to more accurate pricing across markets, such as housing, stocks and bonds, which currently function largely independentlty. Second, it should lead to more accurate pricing of derivatives in the situations where the execise price of the derivatives differs significantly from the current price of the underlying stock.Read moreRead less
Australian Laureate Fellowships - Grant ID: FL120100034
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$2,002,560.00
Summary
Black swans and unknown unknowns: financial markets and their interaction with the macroeconomy in the presence of unanticipated contingencies. Unforeseen contingencies, also called 'black swans' or 'unknown unknowns' pose serious difficulties for decisionmakers. This project will examine how financial regulation can be improved to reduce the vulnerability of the financial system and the macroeconomy to unforeseen shocks.
Investigating imprecision in preferences and its possible consequences for economics and economic choices. When people's preferences are not clear, their choices become variable and susceptible to theoretically irrelevant influences. Examples can be found in surveys of preferences intended to inform public policy in areas such as health, safety and the environment. Understanding the nature of imprecision in people's values and choices is also likely to be crucial for consumers' ability to advan ....Investigating imprecision in preferences and its possible consequences for economics and economic choices. When people's preferences are not clear, their choices become variable and susceptible to theoretically irrelevant influences. Examples can be found in surveys of preferences intended to inform public policy in areas such as health, safety and the environment. Understanding the nature of imprecision in people's values and choices is also likely to be crucial for consumers' ability to advance their interests in our complex, choice-filled society. We plan to draw out some of the implications of our experimental work on preference imprecision for consumer behaviour and existing business practices, including the regulation of fair trading.Read moreRead less
Designing Innovative Allocation Mechanisms for Public Policy. This project applies modern techniques of game theory, auction theory, and experimental economics to public policy design. It can deliver public benefits across a broad front by introducing and demonstrating a new policy design methodology to Australia, by delivering better policy design on specific projects, by building capacity, and by creating a network of collaborators including both University researchers and public sector policy ....Designing Innovative Allocation Mechanisms for Public Policy. This project applies modern techniques of game theory, auction theory, and experimental economics to public policy design. It can deliver public benefits across a broad front by introducing and demonstrating a new policy design methodology to Australia, by delivering better policy design on specific projects, by building capacity, and by creating a network of collaborators including both University researchers and public sector policy experts.Read moreRead less
Choice and Classification in complex and adversarial environments. Any policy must take account of individuals' incentives to strategically manipulate. Mechanism Design is an area of economic theory that addresses precisely this. In its theoretical development however, it overlooks practical constraints for monitoring behavior. For instance, for fraud detection and credit scoring, automated statistical machine learning models discussed in computer science (CS) are used. Here, we constrain ....Choice and Classification in complex and adversarial environments. Any policy must take account of individuals' incentives to strategically manipulate. Mechanism Design is an area of economic theory that addresses precisely this. In its theoretical development however, it overlooks practical constraints for monitoring behavior. For instance, for fraud detection and credit scoring, automated statistical machine learning models discussed in computer science (CS) are used. Here, we constrain monitoring strategies to be such algorithms and address the monitoring of a population of individuals or a similarly constrained large adversary. Notable cross disciplinary implications exist forRead moreRead less
Optimism, Pessimism and Confidence - Their economic impacts. When modelling uncertainty, economists typically assume people utilise well-behaved and precise probabilities. As most people have only the vaguest conception of chances of terrorist acts, of contracting SARS, or of extreme market volatility, this limits usefulness of the standard model in predicting or guiding choice. This project aims to incorporate a richer set of attitudes about uncertainty into economic theory, including impreci ....Optimism, Pessimism and Confidence - Their economic impacts. When modelling uncertainty, economists typically assume people utilise well-behaved and precise probabilities. As most people have only the vaguest conception of chances of terrorist acts, of contracting SARS, or of extreme market volatility, this limits usefulness of the standard model in predicting or guiding choice. This project aims to incorporate a richer set of attitudes about uncertainty into economic theory, including imprecise estimates of chance, optimistic (or pessimistic) bias, and relative confidence. This will enable more rigorous analysis of topics like irrational exuberance (panic), consumer stampedes, and (in)tolerance of risk, thereby improving the measurement of benefits and costs of related actions or policies.Read moreRead less