The effect of bans on short selling: a comprehensive study. Although the 2008 financial crisis has greatly impeded the global economy, it has provided a rare opportunity for researchers to verify the truthfulness of some assumptions made on financial markets that are running without liquidity problems. This project will develop a new option pricing theory suitable for financial markets under some short-selling restrictions. Through exploring, from both empirical and theoretical points of view, h ....The effect of bans on short selling: a comprehensive study. Although the 2008 financial crisis has greatly impeded the global economy, it has provided a rare opportunity for researchers to verify the truthfulness of some assumptions made on financial markets that are running without liquidity problems. This project will develop a new option pricing theory suitable for financial markets under some short-selling restrictions. Through exploring, from both empirical and theoretical points of view, how short-selling bans will affect some important assumptions made in conventional option pricing theory, the newly developed option pricing framework should not only assist in trading options, but also assist market regulators to effectively use bans on short selling to stabilise financial markets.Read moreRead less
Liquidity in financial markets. This project aims to develop a theory which models the effect of liquidity on option prices under different market conditions. Economic or financial crises are inevitable and affect economics. During or after a major financial crisis, market liquidity usually becomes risky and needs to be studied. Through both empirical and theoretical explorations, this project will quantify and measure liquidity risk and its effect on the options markets. It will develop a frame ....Liquidity in financial markets. This project aims to develop a theory which models the effect of liquidity on option prices under different market conditions. Economic or financial crises are inevitable and affect economics. During or after a major financial crisis, market liquidity usually becomes risky and needs to be studied. Through both empirical and theoretical explorations, this project will quantify and measure liquidity risk and its effect on the options markets. It will develop a framework to help market regulators manage illiquidity, enhance the efficiency of option trading in illiquid markets and help in the detection of market manipulation.Read moreRead less
Risk and Reliability in Stochastic Optimisation and Equilibrium. This project seeks to develop theory and methodology in optimisation which take advantage of recent progress in understanding and treating risk in decision making. Problems of optimisation in the face of uncertainty must confront the risk inherent in having to make reliable decisions before knowing the outcomes of crucial random variables on which costs and constraints may depend. Recent theoretical developments, featuring ‘measure ....Risk and Reliability in Stochastic Optimisation and Equilibrium. This project seeks to develop theory and methodology in optimisation which take advantage of recent progress in understanding and treating risk in decision making. Problems of optimisation in the face of uncertainty must confront the risk inherent in having to make reliable decisions before knowing the outcomes of crucial random variables on which costs and constraints may depend. Recent theoretical developments, featuring ‘measures of risk’ beyond just-expected values and quantiles offer hope of major new advances. This project aims to achieve such advances not only in optimisation but also in models of equilibrium that likewise have to deal with uncertainty. Extending current theory and methodology to such multi-stage stochastic models is a challenge. Besides taking up this challenge for its own sake, a major goal of this research will be to use the results in solution algorithms.Read moreRead less
Multi-person stochastic games with idiosyncratic information flows. The project will develop rigorous mathematical techniques aiming to quantify the impact of different information flows on solutions to decision making problems under uncertainty that are frequently encountered in Financial Economics, Mathematical Finance and Social Sciences.
The predictive, behavioural and economic forecasting performance of alternative credit risk and bankruptcy models: a global study. This study empirically evaluates a range of "new age" credit risk models using a large global sample of failed firms and bond ratings data. The study will provide a substantive body of empirical evidence to assist regulators, creditors, investors and other users assess the merits, strengths and limitations of alternative risk modelling approaches.
Retirement income product innovation. This project aims to develop and assess comprehensive retirement income products to support sustainable retirement income streams for the Australian superannuation system. It will provide a framework to develop flexible structured retirement income products, taking into account the fair and effective allocation of costs and risks. Actuarial and financial analysis will highlight savings in Age Pension and aged care costs arising from more effective design of ....Retirement income product innovation. This project aims to develop and assess comprehensive retirement income products to support sustainable retirement income streams for the Australian superannuation system. It will provide a framework to develop flexible structured retirement income products, taking into account the fair and effective allocation of costs and risks. Actuarial and financial analysis will highlight savings in Age Pension and aged care costs arising from more effective design of retirement income products incorporating investment and longevity risk. It intends to develop risk sharing retirement products, risk management strategies, and longevity index-based hedging contracts to share and mitigate financial and longevity risk.Read moreRead less
Frontiers of Risk Modelling: Dependence and Extremes of Levy Processes. This project plans to continue an ongoing theoretical study into continuous-time stochastic processes, concentrating on developing tools for the further analysis and understanding of extremal and multivariate phenomena with applications to portfolio analysis, value-at risk calculations and complex financial instruments, with particular emphasis on practical applications of the methodologies in the insurance and finance indus ....Frontiers of Risk Modelling: Dependence and Extremes of Levy Processes. This project plans to continue an ongoing theoretical study into continuous-time stochastic processes, concentrating on developing tools for the further analysis and understanding of extremal and multivariate phenomena with applications to portfolio analysis, value-at risk calculations and complex financial instruments, with particular emphasis on practical applications of the methodologies in the insurance and finance industries. Expected outcomes would be of direct interest to these industries as well as having significant mathematical interest.Read moreRead less
Improving risk management based on short-term stochastic forecast for financial decisions. The project targets the problems of strategy selection in the framework of mathematical finance. The aim is to find ways to reduce the impact of forecast errors in the presence of uncertainty. Related forecasting algorithms and solutions of optimization problems will be obtained.
G-expectation and its applications to nonlinear risk management. This project will develop novel theories and methods for nonlinear risk management based on nonlinear expectations and Backward Stochastic Differential Equations. The expected outcomes of the project will place Australia in the forefront and the leading position of these fields.
Improving fraud detection, financial reporting quality, investor confidence and market returns by using specialist auditors. As investors, managers and auditors grapple with the global financial crisis effects, this project's findings will help them by showing how and when auditor specialisation contributes to greater financial statement quality and returns. Investors will benefit from lower audit costs, increased audit quality and more credible financial statements.