Links between bushfires in Victoria and floods in Queensland. This project will investigate connections between bushfires in Victoria and floods in Queensland under the framework that atmospheric blocking can be thought of as a common link. High resolution runs using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change future projections of the energetics of high impact weather will improve climate forecasts in sensitive coastal areas of the country.
The Southern Ocean boundary layer: winds, turbulence, sea spray and clouds. Both satellite products and climate models have large biases in the energy and water budgets over the Southern Ocean (SO). This is a direct consequence of a poor understanding of the structure and dynamics of the SO atmospheric boundary layer, which has arisen from an inability to make the necessary observations in this harsh environment. Due to the availability of new Australian research infrastructure, large steps forw ....The Southern Ocean boundary layer: winds, turbulence, sea spray and clouds. Both satellite products and climate models have large biases in the energy and water budgets over the Southern Ocean (SO). This is a direct consequence of a poor understanding of the structure and dynamics of the SO atmospheric boundary layer, which has arisen from an inability to make the necessary observations in this harsh environment. Due to the availability of new Australian research infrastructure, large steps forward are now possible with modest investment. This project will conduct and combine observations from the recently acquired marine vessel, RV Investigator, and the collocated airborne and surface observations to understand the structure and evolution of the unique, pristine SO boundary layer and to evaluate satellites and climate models.Read moreRead less
ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes. This Centre aims to transform understanding of past and present climate extremes and revolutionise Australia’s capability to predict them into the future. Climate extremes cost Australia up to $4 billion a year and will intensify over coming decades. This Centre’s blue-sky research will discover processes that explain the behaviour of present and future climate extremes. It will use its researchers, data, modelling, collaboration, graduate programme ....ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes. This Centre aims to transform understanding of past and present climate extremes and revolutionise Australia’s capability to predict them into the future. Climate extremes cost Australia up to $4 billion a year and will intensify over coming decades. This Centre’s blue-sky research will discover processes that explain the behaviour of present and future climate extremes. It will use its researchers, data, modelling, collaboration, graduate programme and early career researcher mentoring to transform Australia’s capacity to predict climate extremes. This research is expected to make Australia more resilient to climate extremes and minimise risks from climate extremes to the Australian environment, society and economy.Read moreRead less
Tropical climate change, the Hadley and Walker Circulations, and Australian climate. Tropical climate systems, especially the overturning circulations and monsoons, have undergone change in recent decades and are expected to do so over the next century. However, a full understanding of these has proved elusive. The project will employ a suite of insightful diagnostics of these tropical circulations calculated from the latest, high-quality data and the results of modelling to isolate the key phys ....Tropical climate change, the Hadley and Walker Circulations, and Australian climate. Tropical climate systems, especially the overturning circulations and monsoons, have undergone change in recent decades and are expected to do so over the next century. However, a full understanding of these has proved elusive. The project will employ a suite of insightful diagnostics of these tropical circulations calculated from the latest, high-quality data and the results of modelling to isolate the key physical mechanisms at work. The research is significant in that tropical circulations determine the precipitation and temperature over large parts of the Earth’s surface, and particularly Australia. The physical underpinning of the changes will assist in forming outlooks for future climate for the ‘wet tropics’ and the ‘dry zones’.Read moreRead less
Trends in polar sea ice and associated global atmospheric circulations. The project aims to analyse the trends in sea ice extent over the polar regions, and explain them in terms of changes in the local and remote atmospheric circulation. In recent decades, Arctic sea ice has decreased dramatically, while increasing in the Antarctic. The resolution of this paradox is a pressing issue in climate science, as is the broad question of how sea ice influences, and is influenced by, climate conditions ....Trends in polar sea ice and associated global atmospheric circulations. The project aims to analyse the trends in sea ice extent over the polar regions, and explain them in terms of changes in the local and remote atmospheric circulation. In recent decades, Arctic sea ice has decreased dramatically, while increasing in the Antarctic. The resolution of this paradox is a pressing issue in climate science, as is the broad question of how sea ice influences, and is influenced by, climate conditions in the mid-latitudes and tropics. Anticipated outcomes include a better understanding of the nature of links between Australian climate and Antarctic ice, and between United States climate extremes and Arctic ice.Read moreRead less
Do regional climate models rain too much? This project aims to provide a best-practice, in-depth assessment of the climate model simulations that are used to support regional climate change impact assessments. The focus will be on rainfall and the hydrological cycle as these aspects are especially impacts-relevant. Innovation comes from the application of a common benchmarking framework which includes observational uncertainty and process-based understanding to address common modelling limitatio ....Do regional climate models rain too much? This project aims to provide a best-practice, in-depth assessment of the climate model simulations that are used to support regional climate change impact assessments. The focus will be on rainfall and the hydrological cycle as these aspects are especially impacts-relevant. Innovation comes from the application of a common benchmarking framework which includes observational uncertainty and process-based understanding to address common modelling limitations. Any model failings identified will feed into model development strategies and support enhanced decision-making informed by regional climate model simulations.Read moreRead less
Predictability of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation. This project aims to improve understanding of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the world’s largest source of climate variability. ENSO’s effects are so large that knowledge of its current phase and forecasts of its future phase underpin seasonal rainfall, temperature and tropical cyclone forecasts worldwide. In Australia, ENSO cycles cause drought and floods. Using a suite of empirical observations and numerical models to analyse ENSO e ....Predictability of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation. This project aims to improve understanding of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the world’s largest source of climate variability. ENSO’s effects are so large that knowledge of its current phase and forecasts of its future phase underpin seasonal rainfall, temperature and tropical cyclone forecasts worldwide. In Australia, ENSO cycles cause drought and floods. Using a suite of empirical observations and numerical models to analyse ENSO event precursors, initiation and predictability, this project intends to enhance skill in inter-seasonal climate forecasting and help those sectors reliant on accurate prediction.Read moreRead less
The changing relationship between the South Asian and Australian Monsoon in a warming world. The success or failure of the Australian and South Asian Monsoons can mean the difference between prosperity and severe hardship in the affected regions. This project will help to understand the causes of the monsoon variability, both natural and human-induced, and what the future might have in store.
Discovery Early Career Researcher Award - Grant ID: DE150101297
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$320,094.00
Summary
Rethinking Australian drought risk, its long-term variability and processes. Drought risk describes the likelihood that damage will result from exposure to drought. This project aims to fundamentally reshape how we define, characterise and understand drought risk in Australia. A framework for drought risk will be applied that includes the complete range of characteristics that modulate the impacts of drought, which are the frequency of recurrence, duration, severity, seasonality and spatial exte ....Rethinking Australian drought risk, its long-term variability and processes. Drought risk describes the likelihood that damage will result from exposure to drought. This project aims to fundamentally reshape how we define, characterise and understand drought risk in Australia. A framework for drought risk will be applied that includes the complete range of characteristics that modulate the impacts of drought, which are the frequency of recurrence, duration, severity, seasonality and spatial extent. Long-term changes in drought risk will be examined and the process-based climatic risk factors will be identified. Advancing knowledge on the nature and causes of the long-term changes in drought risk is crucial to improving risk management of drought in the agricultural and water resource sectors.Read moreRead less
Tropical ocean interactions and implications for regional climate. This project aims to understand the complex interactions across the world’s tropical oceans and their associated climate effects. The El Niño – Southern Oscillation (ENSO), manifesting in the Pacific Ocean, influences precipitation and temperature worldwide. Changes in the tropical Atlantic or Indian Oceans affect ENSO, generating instabilities and irregularities in the response. Understanding the interactions across the tropical ....Tropical ocean interactions and implications for regional climate. This project aims to understand the complex interactions across the world’s tropical oceans and their associated climate effects. The El Niño – Southern Oscillation (ENSO), manifesting in the Pacific Ocean, influences precipitation and temperature worldwide. Changes in the tropical Atlantic or Indian Oceans affect ENSO, generating instabilities and irregularities in the response. Understanding the interactions across the tropical Atlantic, Indian and Pacific Oceans can provide critical information for ENSO prognosis, thus improving long-term forecasting. Accurate seasonal and annual climate forecasting is crucial for managing Australia’s water resources, and minimising the socio-economic effects of prolonged droughts and severe wet periods.Read moreRead less