New Developments for Bayesian statistical models and computational methods. Bayesian methods of statistical analysis provide a flexible theory for addressing inference in the presence of uncertainty. Consequently Bayesian methods have enabled scientific discovery in areas characterised as complex systems where new developments in modelling and computational methods have been crucial. Significant barriers to further success involve challenges in formulating and validating models, dealing with l ....New Developments for Bayesian statistical models and computational methods. Bayesian methods of statistical analysis provide a flexible theory for addressing inference in the presence of uncertainty. Consequently Bayesian methods have enabled scientific discovery in areas characterised as complex systems where new developments in modelling and computational methods have been crucial. Significant barriers to further success involve challenges in formulating and validating models, dealing with large data sets, and developing efficient computational methods. The principal aim of this project is to develop new Bayesian modelling and computational methodology which address these challenges with broad application.Read moreRead less
Advances in Sequential Monte Carlo Methods for Complex Bayesian Models. This project aims to develop efficient statistical algorithms for parameter estimation of complex stochastic models that currently cannot be handled. Parameter estimation is an essential component of mathematical modelling for answering scientific questions and revealing new insights. Current parameter estimation methods can be inefficient and require too much user intervention. This project will develop novel Bayesian alg ....Advances in Sequential Monte Carlo Methods for Complex Bayesian Models. This project aims to develop efficient statistical algorithms for parameter estimation of complex stochastic models that currently cannot be handled. Parameter estimation is an essential component of mathematical modelling for answering scientific questions and revealing new insights. Current parameter estimation methods can be inefficient and require too much user intervention. This project will develop novel Bayesian algorithms that are optimally automated and efficient by exploiting ever-improving parallel computing devices. The new methods will allow practitioners to process realistic models, enabling new scientific discoveries in a wide range of disciplines such as biology, ecology, agriculture, hydrology and finance.Read moreRead less
New Bayesian methodology for understanding complex systems using hidden Markov models and expert opinion, environmental, robotics and genomics applications. This project aims to merge four areas of intense international interest in describing complex systems: hidden Markov models and mixtures, semi-parametric and nonparametric approaches, true combination of expert opinion with data, and new Bayesian computational methods based on perfect sampling and particle sampling. The project will signific ....New Bayesian methodology for understanding complex systems using hidden Markov models and expert opinion, environmental, robotics and genomics applications. This project aims to merge four areas of intense international interest in describing complex systems: hidden Markov models and mixtures, semi-parametric and nonparametric approaches, true combination of expert opinion with data, and new Bayesian computational methods based on perfect sampling and particle sampling. The project will significantly contribute to statistical methodology and its ability to inform about real-world problems. A strong focus on applications to genomics, robotics and environmental modelling will bring immediate research and monetary benefit for industry. Expected outcomes include enhanced cross-disciplinary and international linkages, publications, industry-funded projects and highly trained graduates.Read moreRead less
Attrition in longitudinal studies: advancing and evaluating statistical methods. Longitudinal studies are a vital tool for monitoring the health and well-being of Australians. They are uniquely placed to examine changes in diseases over time and prospectively collect data on exposure and disease onset. There have been many successful longitudinal studies in Australia that have lead to significant breakthroughs in evidence-based health (e.g. the Nambour Skin Cancer Prevention Trial). Unfortunatel ....Attrition in longitudinal studies: advancing and evaluating statistical methods. Longitudinal studies are a vital tool for monitoring the health and well-being of Australians. They are uniquely placed to examine changes in diseases over time and prospectively collect data on exposure and disease onset. There have been many successful longitudinal studies in Australia that have lead to significant breakthroughs in evidence-based health (e.g. the Nambour Skin Cancer Prevention Trial). Unfortunately all longitudinal studies suffer from attrition, or loss of participants, which leads to questions concerning their validity and generalisability. This project will investigate the causes of attrition, and the effect attrition has on longitudinal studies, in order to improve their design and analysis.Read moreRead less
Innovating optimal experimental design through Bayesian statistics. This project will advance optimal experimental design with the development and implementation of novel Bayesian computational algorithms. This will lead to conducting more informative, timely and cost-effective experiments described by complex systems. Outcomes will advance scientific understanding in areas such as pharmacology and ecology.
Classification methods for providing personalised and class decisions. This project provides a novel approach to the clustering of multivariate samples on entities in a class that automatically matches the sample clusters across the entities, allowing for inter-sample variation between the samples in a class. The project aims to develop a widely applicable, mixture-model-based framework for the simultaneous clustering of multivariate samples with inter-sample variation in a class and for the mat ....Classification methods for providing personalised and class decisions. This project provides a novel approach to the clustering of multivariate samples on entities in a class that automatically matches the sample clusters across the entities, allowing for inter-sample variation between the samples in a class. The project aims to develop a widely applicable, mixture-model-based framework for the simultaneous clustering of multivariate samples with inter-sample variation in a class and for the matching of the clusters across the entities in the class. The project will use a statistical approach to automatically match the clusters, since the overall mixture model provides a template for the class. It will provide a basis for discriminating between different classes in addition to the identification of atypical data points within a sample and of anomalous samples within a class. Key applications include biological image analysis and the analysis of data in flow cytometry which is one of the fundamental research tools for the life scientist.Read moreRead less
Threshold Decisions in Determining Whether to Prosecute Child Sexual Abuse. The objective of this project is new knowledge about the way police and prosecutors make decisions about the prosecution of child sexual assault that could be used to influence policy and practice. Few cases of child sexual abuse reported to the police ever go to court but recent research in New South Wales for the Royal Commission indicates that the proportion has declined sharply over the last decade or so. This projec ....Threshold Decisions in Determining Whether to Prosecute Child Sexual Abuse. The objective of this project is new knowledge about the way police and prosecutors make decisions about the prosecution of child sexual assault that could be used to influence policy and practice. Few cases of child sexual abuse reported to the police ever go to court but recent research in New South Wales for the Royal Commission indicates that the proportion has declined sharply over the last decade or so. This project aims to examine how police and prosecutors decide which cases proceed and why, and how they confer with each other as well as when and how they consult with complainants and their families. This project plans to also develop and test practice tools and principles for police and prosecutors with expected benefits for both them and the families involved.Read moreRead less
Novel Applied Bayesian Statistics for Monitoring Neuromuscular Diseases. Neurological diseases such as motor neurone disease are caused by the progressive death of motor units serving a muscle. Currently there are no ways of quantifying and detecting change in the number of motor units serving a muscle which are non-invasive. Our research will provide an objective method for the progression of neuromuscular diseases to be monitored with minimal inconvenience to patients. This will allow clinic ....Novel Applied Bayesian Statistics for Monitoring Neuromuscular Diseases. Neurological diseases such as motor neurone disease are caused by the progressive death of motor units serving a muscle. Currently there are no ways of quantifying and detecting change in the number of motor units serving a muscle which are non-invasive. Our research will provide an objective method for the progression of neuromuscular diseases to be monitored with minimal inconvenience to patients. This will allow clinical trials for possible effective treatments of neurological diseases such as motor neurone disease to be conducted with an objective measurement of disease progression. Read moreRead less
Novel methodology advancing applied Bayesian statistics and applications. Bayesian statistical inference has become the dominant statistical method in significant areas of application. The project aims to develop and apply novel Bayesian computational algorithms. Outcomes will advance scientific understanding in significant multi-disciplinary areas such as infectious diseases, neurological disease and human behaviour.
Classification of Microarray Gene-Expression Data. The broad aim is to provide statistical methodology for the classification of microarray gene-expression data. Microarrays are part of a new biotechnology that allows the monitoring of expression levels for thousands of genes simultaneously. The explosion in microarrays has produced massive quantities of data that require new statistical techniques for analysis in order to exploit their enormous scientific potential. One of the main uses of ....Classification of Microarray Gene-Expression Data. The broad aim is to provide statistical methodology for the classification of microarray gene-expression data. Microarrays are part of a new biotechnology that allows the monitoring of expression levels for thousands of genes simultaneously. The explosion in microarrays has produced massive quantities of data that require new statistical techniques for analysis in order to exploit their enormous scientific potential. One of the main uses of the methodology to be developed is to expedite the discovery of new subclasses of diseases. Another is to provide prediction rules for the diagnosis and treatment of diseases.Read moreRead less