Inference for Hawkes processes with challenging data. The Hawkes processes are statistical models for the analysis of high-impact event sequences, such as bushfires, earthquakes, infectious diseases, and cyber attacks. When the times and/or marks are missing for some events or when the data is otherwise incomplete, it is challenging to fit these models and perform diagnostic checks on the fitted models. This project aims to develop novel statistical methods to fit these models in the presence of ....Inference for Hawkes processes with challenging data. The Hawkes processes are statistical models for the analysis of high-impact event sequences, such as bushfires, earthquakes, infectious diseases, and cyber attacks. When the times and/or marks are missing for some events or when the data is otherwise incomplete, it is challenging to fit these models and perform diagnostic checks on the fitted models. This project aims to develop novel statistical methods to fit these models in the presence of incomplete data and to check the goodness-of-fit of the fitted models. The expected outcomes include publications documenting these methods and software packages implementing them. The primary benefits include the advancement of statistical methodology and the training of junior research personnel. Read moreRead less
Fast approximate inference methods: new algorithms, applications and theory. This project aims to develop new algorithms and theory for fast approximate inference and lay down infrastructure to aid future extensions. Fast approximate inference methods are a principled and extensible means of fitting large and complex statistical models to big data sets. They come into their own in applications where speed is paramount and traditional approaches are not feasible. The project aims to lead to prac ....Fast approximate inference methods: new algorithms, applications and theory. This project aims to develop new algorithms and theory for fast approximate inference and lay down infrastructure to aid future extensions. Fast approximate inference methods are a principled and extensible means of fitting large and complex statistical models to big data sets. They come into their own in applications where speed is paramount and traditional approaches are not feasible. The project aims to lead to practical outcomes from better business decision-making for insurance data warehouses, to improved medical imaging technology.Read moreRead less
Threshold Decisions in Determining Whether to Prosecute Child Sexual Abuse. The objective of this project is new knowledge about the way police and prosecutors make decisions about the prosecution of child sexual assault that could be used to influence policy and practice. Few cases of child sexual abuse reported to the police ever go to court but recent research in New South Wales for the Royal Commission indicates that the proportion has declined sharply over the last decade or so. This projec ....Threshold Decisions in Determining Whether to Prosecute Child Sexual Abuse. The objective of this project is new knowledge about the way police and prosecutors make decisions about the prosecution of child sexual assault that could be used to influence policy and practice. Few cases of child sexual abuse reported to the police ever go to court but recent research in New South Wales for the Royal Commission indicates that the proportion has declined sharply over the last decade or so. This project aims to examine how police and prosecutors decide which cases proceed and why, and how they confer with each other as well as when and how they consult with complainants and their families. This project plans to also develop and test practice tools and principles for police and prosecutors with expected benefits for both them and the families involved.Read moreRead less
Investigating memory reliability in intoxicated witnesses of crime. Eyewitness testimony is a crucial piece of evidence for solving a crime. Inaccurate testimony leads to miscarriages of justice such as failed prosecutions or false convictions. Many witnesses and victims are affected by alcohol or other drugs during the crime. This project brings together a multidisciplinary team aiming to improve understanding of how intoxication with different substances affects the reliability of victim and w ....Investigating memory reliability in intoxicated witnesses of crime. Eyewitness testimony is a crucial piece of evidence for solving a crime. Inaccurate testimony leads to miscarriages of justice such as failed prosecutions or false convictions. Many witnesses and victims are affected by alcohol or other drugs during the crime. This project brings together a multidisciplinary team aiming to improve understanding of how intoxication with different substances affects the reliability of victim and witness memory accuracy. Crucially, crimes are frequently distressing; therefore the interaction between intoxication and stress urgently requires exploration. This project will significantly advance our understanding of key mechanisms behind drug effects on memory, and support fairer judicial outcomes for all. Read moreRead less
Technology-Driven and Scalable Regression Methodology, Computing and Theory. Regression is a mainstay of data analysis, statistics, machine learning and data science but is in continual need of enhancement in the face of technological change. Scalability and flexibility for the handling of non-linear signals are fundamental to the practical utility of new regression methodology. Several streams of research aimed at confronting data from specific technologies as well as generic types of data are ....Technology-Driven and Scalable Regression Methodology, Computing and Theory. Regression is a mainstay of data analysis, statistics, machine learning and data science but is in continual need of enhancement in the face of technological change. Scalability and flexibility for the handling of non-linear signals are fundamental to the practical utility of new regression methodology. Several streams of research aimed at confronting data from specific technologies as well as generic types of data are proposed. The project is to be networked with researchers in the United States of America and aims to have Australia-based researchers providing leadership in terms of methodological, theoretical, computational and software development.Read moreRead less
Principled statistical methods for high-dimensional correlation networks. This project aims to develop a novel and principled approach for building correlation networks. Correlation networks aim to identify the most significant associations present in modern massive datasets, and have numerous applications, ranging from the biomedical and environmental sciences to the social sciences. Nodes of such networks represent features, and edges represent associations, or the lack thereof. Current method ....Principled statistical methods for high-dimensional correlation networks. This project aims to develop a novel and principled approach for building correlation networks. Correlation networks aim to identify the most significant associations present in modern massive datasets, and have numerous applications, ranging from the biomedical and environmental sciences to the social sciences. Nodes of such networks represent features, and edges represent associations, or the lack thereof. Current methods are not readily scalable to modern ultra-high dimensional settings, and do not account for uncertainty in the estimated associations. This project will develop a principled, highly scalable methodology for building such networks, which incorporates uncertainty quantification. Emphasis is placed on modern ultra-high dimensional settings in which differentiating a true correlation from a spurious one is a notoriously difficult task.Read moreRead less
Judges' work, place and psychological health - a national view. This project aims to address the human, juridical and financial costs of judicial officers’ work-related psychological harm. This harm is implicated in early retirement, sick leave and suicide. It threatens appropriate courtroom conduct, procedural fairness and impartial adjudication. The project seeks to generate new knowledge of the stress judicial officers experience and the individual and institutional mechanisms for managing st ....Judges' work, place and psychological health - a national view. This project aims to address the human, juridical and financial costs of judicial officers’ work-related psychological harm. This harm is implicated in early retirement, sick leave and suicide. It threatens appropriate courtroom conduct, procedural fairness and impartial adjudication. The project seeks to generate new knowledge of the stress judicial officers experience and the individual and institutional mechanisms for managing stressors, combining socio-legal and psychological approaches. Expected outcomes include evidence-based understandings to inform recruitment and retention strategies specific to this highly specialized workforce. This should provide significant benefits for judges’ work capacities and courts' delivery of justice.Read moreRead less
Creating perceptual experts in Australia's policing and security agencies. This project aims to create the next generation of experts in Australia’s policing and national security agencies, by improving crime scene evidence interpretation. Agencies are under pressure to develop more rigorous training practices that go beyond mere intuition and tradition. This project will use a novel approach that directs learning toward the most diagnostic perceptual cues. Expected outcomes include a solid empi ....Creating perceptual experts in Australia's policing and security agencies. This project aims to create the next generation of experts in Australia’s policing and national security agencies, by improving crime scene evidence interpretation. Agencies are under pressure to develop more rigorous training practices that go beyond mere intuition and tradition. This project will use a novel approach that directs learning toward the most diagnostic perceptual cues. Expected outcomes include a solid empirical basis for national training programs designed to create experts that are accurate, reliable, and continuously improving. Improving the training of experts will ensure the integrity of forensics as evidentiary tools available to police, lead to more reliable courtroom convictions and help safeguard Australia from terrorism and crime.Read moreRead less
Bayesian inversion and computation applied to atmospheric flux fields. This project aims to make use of unprecedented sources of measurements, from remote sensing and in situ data, to estimate the sources and sinks of greenhouse gases. An overabundance of greenhouse gases in Earth's atmosphere is arguably the most serious long-term threat to the planet's ecosystems. This project will combine measurement uncertainties, process uncertainties in the physical transport models, and any parameter unce ....Bayesian inversion and computation applied to atmospheric flux fields. This project aims to make use of unprecedented sources of measurements, from remote sensing and in situ data, to estimate the sources and sinks of greenhouse gases. An overabundance of greenhouse gases in Earth's atmosphere is arguably the most serious long-term threat to the planet's ecosystems. This project will combine measurement uncertainties, process uncertainties in the physical transport models, and any parameter uncertainties, to provide reliable uncertainty quantification for the estimates. This will be achieved with new Bayesian spatio-temporal inversions and big-data computational strategies. The resulting statistical inferences on greenhouse-gas flux fields will enable the development of critical mitigation strategies. These new statistical inferences will be a valuable resource to policy-makers worldwide, who are assessing progress towards global commitments. Further, the final product may assist in developing cost-effective mitigation strategies in the presence of uncertainty.Read moreRead less
Discovery Early Career Researcher Award - Grant ID: DE180101252
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$343,450.00
Summary
Statistical theory and algorithms for joint inference of complex networks. This project aims to address the challenges in jointly modelling complex networks by applying an integrated approach encompassing statistical theory, computation, and applications. The project expects to contribute to core statistical methodology development for complex inference and generate new knowledge in the fields of genomics, neuroscience, and social science through in-depth analyses of large-scale multilayered net ....Statistical theory and algorithms for joint inference of complex networks. This project aims to address the challenges in jointly modelling complex networks by applying an integrated approach encompassing statistical theory, computation, and applications. The project expects to contribute to core statistical methodology development for complex inference and generate new knowledge in the fields of genomics, neuroscience, and social science through in-depth analyses of large-scale multilayered network data. Expected outcomes include enhanced theoretical and computational frameworks for probabilistic network models to better utilise the power of multiple observations. This should foster international and interdisciplinary collaborations and add significant value to the rapidly progressing field of networks research.Read moreRead less