Assessing Water Supply Security in a Nonstationary Environment. About 25% of the global population currently has inadequate access to safe and secure water. This number is expected to rise to 50% by 2050 due to increased populations and reduced river flows. While a visible water crisis (such as the one in Cape Town in 2018) can culminate in the funding of new water supply infrastructure, a planned push for infrastructure augmentation often stalls due to contradictory projections of how much wate ....Assessing Water Supply Security in a Nonstationary Environment. About 25% of the global population currently has inadequate access to safe and secure water. This number is expected to rise to 50% by 2050 due to increased populations and reduced river flows. While a visible water crisis (such as the one in Cape Town in 2018) can culminate in the funding of new water supply infrastructure, a planned push for infrastructure augmentation often stalls due to contradictory projections of how much water will be available in the future. To address this, a novel alternative for assessing water security is proposed. Our approach assesses change using historical information on river flow and water demand, adapting these to form projections that exhibit greater reliability than currently existing alternatives.Read moreRead less
A robust integrated streamflow forecasting framework for Australian water information and management agencies. This project aims to deliver an accurate and reliable seasonal streamflow forecasting system for Australian water users by developing a flexible rainfall-runoff modelling approach integrated into a Bayesian inference and prediction framework. These scientific developments aim to significantly advance the operational capabilities of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology to deliver robust ....A robust integrated streamflow forecasting framework for Australian water information and management agencies. This project aims to deliver an accurate and reliable seasonal streamflow forecasting system for Australian water users by developing a flexible rainfall-runoff modelling approach integrated into a Bayesian inference and prediction framework. These scientific developments aim to significantly advance the operational capabilities of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology to deliver robust streamflow forecasts to water agencies such as South East Queensland Water and others across Australia. Accurate predictions of future water flows are of tremendous value to urban and rural Australian communities whose economic prosperity, water security and social well-being depend on reliable estimates of water availability.Read moreRead less
Delivering robust hydrological predictions for Australia’s water challenges. This project aims to build a virtual hydrological laboratory to identify the best hydrological models that maximise predictive performance in a range of catchments, accounting for their dominant hydrological processes and data availability. New process-informed hydrological model structures will be developed using this virtual laboratory to embody our best understanding of hydrological processes and data from real catch ....Delivering robust hydrological predictions for Australia’s water challenges. This project aims to build a virtual hydrological laboratory to identify the best hydrological models that maximise predictive performance in a range of catchments, accounting for their dominant hydrological processes and data availability. New process-informed hydrological model structures will be developed using this virtual laboratory to embody our best understanding of hydrological processes and data from real catchments. The expected outcomes include major improvements in hydrological predictions for Australian catchments. This project will provide major benefits to irrigators, water authorities and engineers, who rely on hydrological predictions for sustainable water management in the highly-variable, semi-arid Australian climate.Read moreRead less
Animals on the move - an integrated approach to selecting conservation reserves under climate change. Conserving biodiversity when faced with rapid changes in climate and land use is a major challenge facing conservation managers. Translocation - the process of moving species from one location to another - may be the best means of preventing species extinction, but the long-term climatic suitability of translocation sites is rarely considered. This project will develop and apply new methods for ....Animals on the move - an integrated approach to selecting conservation reserves under climate change. Conserving biodiversity when faced with rapid changes in climate and land use is a major challenge facing conservation managers. Translocation - the process of moving species from one location to another - may be the best means of preventing species extinction, but the long-term climatic suitability of translocation sites is rarely considered. This project will develop and apply new methods for identifying climatically suitable habitats for a critically endangered tortoise, with the aim of selecting sites where the species can persist long-term with minimum management. The approach will have utility not only for management of endangered species, but also in selecting future climatic regions for raising commercially valuable species. Read moreRead less
A framework for model emulation and ensemble modelling. For improved water resource management there is a need for further development of appropriate hydrologic models. This project will undertake a collection of hydrologic modelling activities performed at multiple catchments in Australia. A modeling framework that is flexible, extendible and accounts for potential forecast uncertainties will be developed.
Development of a generic catchment classification framework in hydrology. Hydrologic models play a vital role in water resource planning and management, but identification of a suitable model for a given catchment remains a basic problem. This research develops a generic framework to classify catchments into groups and sub-groups, and will offer a significantly better way for hydrologic model development and application.
Water availability and demand: better forecasts, better management. This project aims to improve Australia’s capability in the provision and use of water forecasts for managing water resources. The current water forecasts are not fully utilised by water agencies as they are not sufficiently comprehensive and advanced. This project expects to achieve a step change in the uptake and utility of hydro-climate forecasts through an extensive partnership of leading researchers and operational agencies ....Water availability and demand: better forecasts, better management. This project aims to improve Australia’s capability in the provision and use of water forecasts for managing water resources. The current water forecasts are not fully utilised by water agencies as they are not sufficiently comprehensive and advanced. This project expects to achieve a step change in the uptake and utility of hydro-climate forecasts through an extensive partnership of leading researchers and operational agencies of hydro-climate forecasting, with federal, state and regional water agencies.Read moreRead less
Uncertainty quantification in terrestrial hydrologic systems. This project aims to develop a framework to simulate, quantify and analyse the uncertainty in streamflow and vegetation dynamics via approximate Bayesian computation. Water is a fundamental resource, and a difficulty in water resource management is to make predictions in a changing environment. Uncertainties in predictions of natural systems due to observational and model error make this more difficult. It is anticipated that the resu ....Uncertainty quantification in terrestrial hydrologic systems. This project aims to develop a framework to simulate, quantify and analyse the uncertainty in streamflow and vegetation dynamics via approximate Bayesian computation. Water is a fundamental resource, and a difficulty in water resource management is to make predictions in a changing environment. Uncertainties in predictions of natural systems due to observational and model error make this more difficult. It is anticipated that the results from this project will advance uncertainty analysis in hydrology and help understand how different types of data and information can inform model characterisation. This will be useful in providing vital information on the attributes and extent of uncertainty to inform water resources analysis, management and decision making.Read moreRead less
Linking freshwater flows, salt wedge dynamics and fisheries productivity in estuaries. Freshwater is a critical resource in Australia, but there is a perception that freshwater running to the sea is wasted. Australia's estuaries are of great importance - economically, socially and environmentally. Estuaries provide habitat for unique and endangered animals and plants, support valuable fisheries, and have enormous recreational value, particularly in regional communities. Our lack of understanding ....Linking freshwater flows, salt wedge dynamics and fisheries productivity in estuaries. Freshwater is a critical resource in Australia, but there is a perception that freshwater running to the sea is wasted. Australia's estuaries are of great importance - economically, socially and environmentally. Estuaries provide habitat for unique and endangered animals and plants, support valuable fisheries, and have enormous recreational value, particularly in regional communities. Our lack of understanding about the effects of freshwater flows on estuarine productivity impedes decision making on the allocation of water to sustain healthy estuaries. The health of Australia's estuaries and sustainability of their resources, particularly fisheries, depend on understanding their freshwater requirements and securing environmental flows.Read moreRead less
A study of China’s south to north water transfer project. This project aims to investigate the motives, processes, and socio-political and hydrological consequences of the South-North Water Transfer (SNWT) in China, the world’s largest inter-basin water network. It connects four major river basins, six provinces, three megacities and over 700 million people. This project will analyse the SNWT's governance regime; its effects on local and regional flows of water, money, people, pollutants, produc ....A study of China’s south to north water transfer project. This project aims to investigate the motives, processes, and socio-political and hydrological consequences of the South-North Water Transfer (SNWT) in China, the world’s largest inter-basin water network. It connects four major river basins, six provinces, three megacities and over 700 million people. This project will analyse the SNWT's governance regime; its effects on local and regional flows of water, money, people, pollutants, production and political authority; and the interactions between these systemic and local changes. This project expects to produce knowledge about the politics of vast technologies, and the management of inter-basin water schemes in Australia and globally.Read moreRead less