A Stochastic Downscaling Framework for Catchment Scale Climate Change Impact Assessment. We propose a framework for climate change impact assessment at the catchment scale, that can both assess the change in catchment yield, as well as refine management policies to mitigate likely impacts. A key aim is to represent the full uncertainty in the simulated streamflow, thus enabling a risk-based comparison of current policies with those for climate change conditions. Given the importance of this rese ....A Stochastic Downscaling Framework for Catchment Scale Climate Change Impact Assessment. We propose a framework for climate change impact assessment at the catchment scale, that can both assess the change in catchment yield, as well as refine management policies to mitigate likely impacts. A key aim is to represent the full uncertainty in the simulated streamflow, thus enabling a risk-based comparison of current policies with those for climate change conditions. Given the importance of this research to the availability of water under a climate change scenario, this proposal has been listed under the ARC's Research Priority 1: 'An Environmentally Sustainable Australia', with the specific priority goals being 'Water - A Critical Resource', and 'Responding to climate change and variability'.Read moreRead less
A Bayesian Hierarchical Approach for Simulating Multi-time Scale Hydrological Variability for Water Resource Planning. Assessments of future drought risks are dependent on simulations of hydrological inputs provided by stochastic models. The current models are limited to simulating variability at a single time scale using only local observed hydrological data. This data has only limited information on the long-term climate variability which is the cause of long-term severe droughts. The proposed ....A Bayesian Hierarchical Approach for Simulating Multi-time Scale Hydrological Variability for Water Resource Planning. Assessments of future drought risks are dependent on simulations of hydrological inputs provided by stochastic models. The current models are limited to simulating variability at a single time scale using only local observed hydrological data. This data has only limited information on the long-term climate variability which is the cause of long-term severe droughts. The proposed research will develop a new Bayesian framework for simulating multi-time scale variability in hydrological data. This will enable the dynamic processes which simulate long-term variability to be identified using auxiliary information in an uncertainty framework. This will provide water resource planners with more accurate assessments of long-term drought risks.
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Scaling and assimilation of soil moisture and streamflow. Information on how soil moisture varies in space and time has been largely restricted to point-scale groundbased measurements. We will develop methods for predicting how soil moisture status evolves in time over a range of spatial scales, by assimilating groundbased measurements and satellite observations of soil moisture with streamflow observations into simple rainfall-runoff models. Extensive soil moisture monitoring will allow develop ....Scaling and assimilation of soil moisture and streamflow. Information on how soil moisture varies in space and time has been largely restricted to point-scale groundbased measurements. We will develop methods for predicting how soil moisture status evolves in time over a range of spatial scales, by assimilating groundbased measurements and satellite observations of soil moisture with streamflow observations into simple rainfall-runoff models. Extensive soil moisture monitoring will allow development of scaling relationships and validation for new satellite-based microwave radiometers. The project's outcomes will have significant benefits in relation to flood mitigation, salinity control and irrigation management.Read moreRead less
Derivation of long-term hydroclimatic sequences for water resources engineering, management and planning. This project aims to develop in-situ reconstructions of flood and drought occurrence in the Sydney Warragamba catchment. The unique approach will utilise two complementary methods to provide robust insights into historic variability at the location of interest. The derived sequences will be used to augment the instrumental record, the sole basis for current drought risk assessment. A key out ....Derivation of long-term hydroclimatic sequences for water resources engineering, management and planning. This project aims to develop in-situ reconstructions of flood and drought occurrence in the Sydney Warragamba catchment. The unique approach will utilise two complementary methods to provide robust insights into historic variability at the location of interest. The derived sequences will be used to augment the instrumental record, the sole basis for current drought risk assessment. A key outcome will be an accurate appreciation of long-term drought occurrence. This will also provide a stronger basis for utilising climate information in guiding day-to-day reservoir and water supply management. The proxy histories are of key importance in estimating future flood and drought risk assessments for water resources management and planning.Read moreRead less