Remote forcing of Pacific Ocean variability and impacts on global climate. Variability in the Pacific Ocean has a profound impact on global climate. Recent unprecedented decadal variability in the Pacific has been linked to global temperature trends and extremes, yet little is known about what drives this variability or its impact on regional climate. This project will combine observations, advanced coupled climate models and ocean-atmosphere dynamical theory to quantify remote drivers of Pacifi ....Remote forcing of Pacific Ocean variability and impacts on global climate. Variability in the Pacific Ocean has a profound impact on global climate. Recent unprecedented decadal variability in the Pacific has been linked to global temperature trends and extremes, yet little is known about what drives this variability or its impact on regional climate. This project will combine observations, advanced coupled climate models and ocean-atmosphere dynamical theory to quantify remote drivers of Pacific Ocean variability on interannual-decadal time-scales. This project aims to enhance our understanding of the modes of variability operating in this region and their impact on global and Australian climate. This will have significant benefits for the many sectors of society reliant on interseasonal-decadal climate prediction.Read moreRead less
Multi-trait plasticity in response to a changing climate. This project aims to understand the effect of climate change on natural populations. Phenotypic plasticity (the ability to change phenotype with environment) determines natural populations’ immediate response to environmental change. However, studies of plasticity frequently rely on simplifying assumptions, and understanding the genomic and epigenomic mechanisms underlying plasticity is only just emerging. This project will combine a fine ....Multi-trait plasticity in response to a changing climate. This project aims to understand the effect of climate change on natural populations. Phenotypic plasticity (the ability to change phenotype with environment) determines natural populations’ immediate response to environmental change. However, studies of plasticity frequently rely on simplifying assumptions, and understanding the genomic and epigenomic mechanisms underlying plasticity is only just emerging. This project will combine a fine-scale temperature-manipulation experiment with genomic and multivariate statistical analyses of a native Australian alpine plant. The intended outcome is a comprehensive analysis of whether multi-trait phenotypic plasticity is adaptive; whether it can evolve; and the epigenomic mechanisms that drive it. The project will predict the likely effect of temperature change on alpine plants, and so generate information internationally relevant to the management of populations adapting to climate change and locally relevant to the conservation of Australian montane flora.Read moreRead less
Ocean heat content change and its impact on sea level. This project aims to improve projections of possible sea level changes. Sea level rise is among the most significant potential impacts of transient climate change around the world. Poor understanding of the way in which heat is absorbed at the sea surface and distributed by ocean circulation is a leading source of uncertainty in projections of global surface temperature and regional sea level rise by the end of this century. This project aim ....Ocean heat content change and its impact on sea level. This project aims to improve projections of possible sea level changes. Sea level rise is among the most significant potential impacts of transient climate change around the world. Poor understanding of the way in which heat is absorbed at the sea surface and distributed by ocean circulation is a leading source of uncertainty in projections of global surface temperature and regional sea level rise by the end of this century. This project aims to apply novel observational methods, complimented by numerical modelling, to quantify the drivers of recent change. This project expects to transform our ability to predict how ocean temperature and sea level will change in the future.Read moreRead less
Ancient Ecology: Changes in penguin diet over ~30,000 years in Antarctica. This project proposes the first direct study of ancient ecology using a combination of second-generation DNA sequencing and targeted gene recovery. The food web of the Antarctic Ocean is a classic textbook example of energy and nutrient cycling in the marine environment. Although a great deal is known about the current status of this food web, understanding how this complex set of predator / prey relationships have change ....Ancient Ecology: Changes in penguin diet over ~30,000 years in Antarctica. This project proposes the first direct study of ancient ecology using a combination of second-generation DNA sequencing and targeted gene recovery. The food web of the Antarctic Ocean is a classic textbook example of energy and nutrient cycling in the marine environment. Although a great deal is known about the current status of this food web, understanding how this complex set of predator / prey relationships have changed over long periods of time is vital to understanding the nature of the system itself. The project intends to track changes in the diet of Adélie penguins from serially preserved ancient fecal (guano) remains dating back approximately 30,000 years. These remains are known to contain microscopic remnants of penguin prey.Read moreRead less
Predicting genetic exchange between species under climate change. This project aims to resolve the factors that lead to the mixing of species’ gene pools, with a focus on whether climate change will increase such mixing, possibly leading to extinction by genetic swamping.
The significance is that the project would improve our understanding of speciation and species’ vulnerability to rapid climate change through genetic mixing; a largely overlooked process.
Key outcomes would be to generate new k ....Predicting genetic exchange between species under climate change. This project aims to resolve the factors that lead to the mixing of species’ gene pools, with a focus on whether climate change will increase such mixing, possibly leading to extinction by genetic swamping.
The significance is that the project would improve our understanding of speciation and species’ vulnerability to rapid climate change through genetic mixing; a largely overlooked process.
Key outcomes would be to generate new knowledge of a fundamental evolutionary process and extend the toolbox of biodiversity managers facing rapid environmental change.
The project would benefit Australia by highlighting our unique biodiversity and scientific capability, and by training early career researchers in advanced evolutionary biology.Read moreRead less
Quantifying sea-level trends and extremes along Australia's coastal margin. Multi-decadal changes in sea-level, and sea-level extremes, cannot be well quantified along most global coastlines, including Australia's, because the high spatial variability of sea-level is under-sampled by the sparse set of long, high quality tide gauge records. Satellite altimetry provides an alternative data source with greater spatial sampling, yet experiences contamination from land within tens of kilometres from ....Quantifying sea-level trends and extremes along Australia's coastal margin. Multi-decadal changes in sea-level, and sea-level extremes, cannot be well quantified along most global coastlines, including Australia's, because the high spatial variability of sea-level is under-sampled by the sparse set of long, high quality tide gauge records. Satellite altimetry provides an alternative data source with greater spatial sampling, yet experiences contamination from land within tens of kilometres from the coast and also suffers from regionally correlated biases. This project proposes to address these problems through re-tracking radar altimetry waveforms to derive new data in the coastal margin, enabling the production of new inferences on sea-level change and extremes at dramatically improved spatial resolution around Australia.Read moreRead less
Understanding leaf water isotope composition. This project aims to quantify variation in leaf water isotopes and develop mechanistic models for paleoclimatologists and plant scientists to constrain global carbon cycles. Leaf water stable isotopes influence the isotope compositions of atmospheric oxygen, carbon dioxide and water vapour, and impart an evaporative signal on the isotope composition of plant organic material. These isotope signals have been used to constrain global carbon and water c ....Understanding leaf water isotope composition. This project aims to quantify variation in leaf water isotopes and develop mechanistic models for paleoclimatologists and plant scientists to constrain global carbon cycles. Leaf water stable isotopes influence the isotope compositions of atmospheric oxygen, carbon dioxide and water vapour, and impart an evaporative signal on the isotope composition of plant organic material. These isotope signals have been used to constrain global carbon and water cycles and reconstruct past climates. This project aims to quantify variation in leaf water isotopes and develop mechanistic models for use by paleoclimatologists, plant scientists and to constrain global carbon cycles and develop accurate models of leaf water isotopes to reduce uncertainty in climate models.Read moreRead less
Unraveling ocean mixing and air-sea forcing along the Indo-Pacific exchange. This project aims to collect unprecedented observations and develop high resolution model simulations to examine changes in the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) north of Australia. This project expects to develop new knowledge of ocean-atmosphere interactions along the path of the ITF from the Pacific to the Indian Ocean, which are the powerhouse that drives changes in winds and rainfall around Australia and the entire Indo ....Unraveling ocean mixing and air-sea forcing along the Indo-Pacific exchange. This project aims to collect unprecedented observations and develop high resolution model simulations to examine changes in the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) north of Australia. This project expects to develop new knowledge of ocean-atmosphere interactions along the path of the ITF from the Pacific to the Indian Ocean, which are the powerhouse that drives changes in winds and rainfall around Australia and the entire Indo-Pacific region. Expected outcomes include a 1000-fold increase in the observations of mixing in the Indonesian seas and new understanding of the ocean-atmosphere processes that control water property change along the ITF. This should lead to strong improvement in the skill of climate forecast models in the Australian region.Read moreRead less
Cuckoo - host coevolution: a model system for investigating the impact of climate change on interspecific interactions and biodiversity. Climate change is causing alterations to the timing of breeding and migration in Australian birds, resulting in mismatches in timing between closely interacting species. This project will assess the impact of climate change on interactions between parasitic cuckoos, hosts and prey and formulate predictions about the long-term viability of these species.
Space gravity: squeezing the last drop of hydrological information out of current and future missions. Australia needs space gravity measurements in order to estimate regional-scale total water storage changes on our continent. This project will deliver the analysis capability required to exploit all the measurements of the current Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission and to place Australia in a state of readiness for the 2017 GRACE Follow On mission.